History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies

The challenges the futures studies face are particularly complex, interconnected, and contradictory, and cannot be resolved using linear approaches. Prognostic science needs tools matching the new contextual complexity, which would allow to capture a much wider range of driving forces, and their po...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Marina Boykova, Helena Knyazeva, Mikhail Salazkin
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: National Research University Higher School of Economics 2023-12-01
Series:Foresight and STI Governance
Subjects:
Online Access:https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/article/view/19149
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850152040642117632
author Marina Boykova
Helena Knyazeva
Mikhail Salazkin
author_facet Marina Boykova
Helena Knyazeva
Mikhail Salazkin
author_sort Marina Boykova
collection DOAJ
description The challenges the futures studies face are particularly complex, interconnected, and contradictory, and cannot be resolved using linear approaches. Prognostic science needs tools matching the new contextual complexity, which would allow to capture a much wider range of driving forces, and their potential effects, in a non-linear perspective, to improve the accuracy of forecasts and quality of strategies. Through a retrospective analysis of prognostic science and Foresight studies, the paper presents the prerequisites for enriching the relevant methodology with the complexity science concepts. Relevant Foresight competences are identified. Case studies are presented, which can serve as practical guidelines to master the creative potential of complexity during particularly unstable periods. Special attention is paid to the emerging megatrend of the rising deglobalisation, which can radically affect the implementation of previously developed strategies. The key conclusion from the presented analysis is that skilful handling of complexity opens up major opportunities for creative growth.
format Article
id doaj-art-2f8d184ea7724a769ae51a2c4c00d01a
institution OA Journals
issn 2500-2597
language English
publishDate 2023-12-01
publisher National Research University Higher School of Economics
record_format Article
series Foresight and STI Governance
spelling doaj-art-2f8d184ea7724a769ae51a2c4c00d01a2025-08-20T02:26:05ZengNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsForesight and STI Governance2500-25972023-12-0117410.17323/2500-2597.2023.4.80.91History and Modern Landscape of Futures StudiesMarina Boykova0Helena Knyazeva1Mikhail Salazkin2HSE UniversityHSE UniversityHSE University The challenges the futures studies face are particularly complex, interconnected, and contradictory, and cannot be resolved using linear approaches. Prognostic science needs tools matching the new contextual complexity, which would allow to capture a much wider range of driving forces, and their potential effects, in a non-linear perspective, to improve the accuracy of forecasts and quality of strategies. Through a retrospective analysis of prognostic science and Foresight studies, the paper presents the prerequisites for enriching the relevant methodology with the complexity science concepts. Relevant Foresight competences are identified. Case studies are presented, which can serve as practical guidelines to master the creative potential of complexity during particularly unstable periods. Special attention is paid to the emerging megatrend of the rising deglobalisation, which can radically affect the implementation of previously developed strategies. The key conclusion from the presented analysis is that skilful handling of complexity opens up major opportunities for creative growth. https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/article/view/19149weak signalsuncertaintyscenario planningsustainable developmentcompetenciesfutures studies
spellingShingle Marina Boykova
Helena Knyazeva
Mikhail Salazkin
History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies
Foresight and STI Governance
weak signals
uncertainty
scenario planning
sustainable development
competencies
futures studies
title History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies
title_full History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies
title_fullStr History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies
title_full_unstemmed History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies
title_short History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies
title_sort history and modern landscape of futures studies
topic weak signals
uncertainty
scenario planning
sustainable development
competencies
futures studies
url https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/article/view/19149
work_keys_str_mv AT marinaboykova historyandmodernlandscapeoffuturesstudies
AT helenaknyazeva historyandmodernlandscapeoffuturesstudies
AT mikhailsalazkin historyandmodernlandscapeoffuturesstudies