History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies
The challenges the futures studies face are particularly complex, interconnected, and contradictory, and cannot be resolved using linear approaches. Prognostic science needs tools matching the new contextual complexity, which would allow to capture a much wider range of driving forces, and their po...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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National Research University Higher School of Economics
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Foresight and STI Governance |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/article/view/19149 |
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| _version_ | 1850152040642117632 |
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| author | Marina Boykova Helena Knyazeva Mikhail Salazkin |
| author_facet | Marina Boykova Helena Knyazeva Mikhail Salazkin |
| author_sort | Marina Boykova |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
The challenges the futures studies face are particularly complex, interconnected, and contradictory, and cannot be resolved using linear approaches. Prognostic science needs tools matching the new contextual complexity, which would allow to capture a much wider range of driving forces, and their potential effects, in a non-linear perspective, to improve the accuracy of forecasts and quality of strategies. Through a retrospective analysis of prognostic science and Foresight studies, the paper presents the prerequisites for enriching the relevant methodology with the complexity science concepts. Relevant Foresight competences are identified. Case studies are presented, which can serve as practical guidelines to master the creative potential of complexity during particularly unstable periods. Special attention is paid to the emerging megatrend of the rising deglobalisation, which can radically affect the implementation of previously developed strategies. The key conclusion from the presented analysis is that skilful handling of complexity opens up major opportunities for creative growth.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2f8d184ea7724a769ae51a2c4c00d01a |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2500-2597 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | National Research University Higher School of Economics |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Foresight and STI Governance |
| spelling | doaj-art-2f8d184ea7724a769ae51a2c4c00d01a2025-08-20T02:26:05ZengNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsForesight and STI Governance2500-25972023-12-0117410.17323/2500-2597.2023.4.80.91History and Modern Landscape of Futures StudiesMarina Boykova0Helena Knyazeva1Mikhail Salazkin2HSE UniversityHSE UniversityHSE University The challenges the futures studies face are particularly complex, interconnected, and contradictory, and cannot be resolved using linear approaches. Prognostic science needs tools matching the new contextual complexity, which would allow to capture a much wider range of driving forces, and their potential effects, in a non-linear perspective, to improve the accuracy of forecasts and quality of strategies. Through a retrospective analysis of prognostic science and Foresight studies, the paper presents the prerequisites for enriching the relevant methodology with the complexity science concepts. Relevant Foresight competences are identified. Case studies are presented, which can serve as practical guidelines to master the creative potential of complexity during particularly unstable periods. Special attention is paid to the emerging megatrend of the rising deglobalisation, which can radically affect the implementation of previously developed strategies. The key conclusion from the presented analysis is that skilful handling of complexity opens up major opportunities for creative growth. https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/article/view/19149weak signalsuncertaintyscenario planningsustainable developmentcompetenciesfutures studies |
| spellingShingle | Marina Boykova Helena Knyazeva Mikhail Salazkin History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies Foresight and STI Governance weak signals uncertainty scenario planning sustainable development competencies futures studies |
| title | History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies |
| title_full | History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies |
| title_fullStr | History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies |
| title_full_unstemmed | History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies |
| title_short | History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies |
| title_sort | history and modern landscape of futures studies |
| topic | weak signals uncertainty scenario planning sustainable development competencies futures studies |
| url | https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/article/view/19149 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT marinaboykova historyandmodernlandscapeoffuturesstudies AT helenaknyazeva historyandmodernlandscapeoffuturesstudies AT mikhailsalazkin historyandmodernlandscapeoffuturesstudies |