Forecast Model of Russia’s Gross Domestic Product Depending on Financial Instruments of Trade in Energy and Commodities
Methodology of forecasting the gross domestic product (GDP) growth for complex socio-economic systems is projected on economic conditions of the Russian Federation. The most important factors affecting GDP change, development of a GDP forecast econometric model for the Russian economy and the method...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Academy of Sciences of Moldova
2018-04-01
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| Series: | Problems of the Regional Energetics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.ie.asm.md/assets/files/13_01_36_2018.pdf |
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| Summary: | Methodology of forecasting the gross domestic product (GDP) growth for complex socio-economic systems is projected on economic conditions of the Russian Federation. The most important factors affecting GDP change, development of a GDP forecast econometric model for the Russian economy and the methodology of the model use are identified. The model is used as a source of information necessary for the analysis of territorial multi-sectoral objects (ATMO) model which we developed. ATMO model is the model of planning regional sectoral production systems of independent corporate participants and can predict their behavior utilizing game approach. Non-systemic "signal" information (GDP growth rate) is necessary to change the strategies. The factors for predicting are the primary and secondary financial instruments of trade in energy and raw commodities. The principle of behavioral imitation is introduced for the first time in relation to a class of such tasks. Technology of decisions making corresponds to the knowledge of managers and officials rather than to that of analysts. The forecast model reflects the "ordinary" view of mentioned decision makers on the nature of GDP dependence on trade in specific goods (oil, gas, grain, gold, silver, copper, etc.). Almost any company leader will be able to use this set to forecast GDP as guidelines for further development of the enterprise. The ATMO model makes it possible to influence the economy to achieve macroeconomic goals and gives the opportunity to increase the available volumes of energy resources for export, e.g., for functioning of the emerging gas hub in EU. |
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| ISSN: | 1857-0070 |