Is overconfidence an individual difference?
Some scholars have treated overconfidence as an individual difference—that is, assuming the tendency to be overconfident is stable within a person and differs meaningfully from person to person. We question this assumption. We investigate consistency within individuals between its three forms—overes...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
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| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297525000117/type/journal_article |
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| author | Sophia Li Randall Hale Don A. Moore |
| author_facet | Sophia Li Randall Hale Don A. Moore |
| author_sort | Sophia Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Some scholars have treated overconfidence as an individual difference—that is, assuming the tendency to be overconfident is stable within a person and differs meaningfully from person to person. We question this assumption. We investigate consistency within individuals between its three forms—overestimation, overplacement, and overprecision—in multiple domains (Study 1a and 1b), at multiple times (Study 1b and 2), and with multiple measures (Study 3a and 3b). We find mixed evidence of trait-like consistency. We do find some evidence of within-individual stability across domains and time points. However, we find little consistency across different measures of the same form of overconfidence—specifically overprecision. Instead, we find more consistent evidence that overconfidence varies situationally and contextually. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2eba9be599024faf9fb1a954fc44e6d9 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj-art-2eba9be599024faf9fb1a954fc44e6d92025-08-20T02:24:58ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752025-01-012010.1017/jdm.2025.11Is overconfidence an individual difference?Sophia Li0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9165-4493Randall Hale1Don A. Moore2Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USADepartment of Psychology, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USAHaas School of Business, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USASome scholars have treated overconfidence as an individual difference—that is, assuming the tendency to be overconfident is stable within a person and differs meaningfully from person to person. We question this assumption. We investigate consistency within individuals between its three forms—overestimation, overplacement, and overprecision—in multiple domains (Study 1a and 1b), at multiple times (Study 1b and 2), and with multiple measures (Study 3a and 3b). We find mixed evidence of trait-like consistency. We do find some evidence of within-individual stability across domains and time points. However, we find little consistency across different measures of the same form of overconfidence—specifically overprecision. Instead, we find more consistent evidence that overconfidence varies situationally and contextually.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297525000117/type/journal_articleoverconfidenceindividual differencesoverestimationoverplacementoverprecision |
| spellingShingle | Sophia Li Randall Hale Don A. Moore Is overconfidence an individual difference? Judgment and Decision Making overconfidence individual differences overestimation overplacement overprecision |
| title | Is overconfidence an individual difference? |
| title_full | Is overconfidence an individual difference? |
| title_fullStr | Is overconfidence an individual difference? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Is overconfidence an individual difference? |
| title_short | Is overconfidence an individual difference? |
| title_sort | is overconfidence an individual difference |
| topic | overconfidence individual differences overestimation overplacement overprecision |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297525000117/type/journal_article |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sophiali isoverconfidenceanindividualdifference AT randallhale isoverconfidenceanindividualdifference AT donamoore isoverconfidenceanindividualdifference |