Global, regional and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis from 1990 to 2021, with projections of incidence to 2050: a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2021
Abstract Background To provide insights into rheumatoid arthritis (RA) epidemiological trends, including prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), corresponding average annual percentage change (AAPC), gender disparities, regional variations, age-specific rates, socio-economic c...
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BMC
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Biomarker Research |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40364-025-00760-8 |
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| author | Yingnan Ma Haiyan Chen Wenhua Lv Siyu Wei Yuping Zou Ruilin Li Jiacheng Wang Wei She Linna Yuan Junxian Tao Xuying Guo Shuo Bi Hongsheng Tian Ye Ma Hongmei Sun Chen Sun Jing Xu Yu Dong Jingxuan Kang Hongchao Lv Mingming Zhang Yongshuai Jiang |
| author_facet | Yingnan Ma Haiyan Chen Wenhua Lv Siyu Wei Yuping Zou Ruilin Li Jiacheng Wang Wei She Linna Yuan Junxian Tao Xuying Guo Shuo Bi Hongsheng Tian Ye Ma Hongmei Sun Chen Sun Jing Xu Yu Dong Jingxuan Kang Hongchao Lv Mingming Zhang Yongshuai Jiang |
| author_sort | Yingnan Ma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background To provide insights into rheumatoid arthritis (RA) epidemiological trends, including prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), corresponding average annual percentage change (AAPC), gender disparities, regional variations, age-specific rates, socio-economic correlations, risk factors, and future projections. Methods Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021. AAPC was calculated by joinpoint regression and two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed to verify the causal relationship between the smoking factor and RA. The future incidence trend was predicted by the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. Results Global age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased significantly while age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) decreased from 1990 to 2021. Regional variations were pronounced, with Andean Latin America reporting the highest burden. Females consistently exhibited higher age-standardized rate (ASR) across all metrics. Age-specific prevalence, incidence, and DALYs rates peaked at different age groups, highlighting complex demographic dynamics. Socio-demographic index (SDI) analysis demonstrated a positive correlation between RA burden and socio-economic development. The two-sample MR analysis confirmed a causal effect between smoking and RA. From 2022 to 2050, the ASIR will increase moderately. Conclusions The study underscores the escalating burden of RA globally, emphasizing the need for healthcare providers to be aware of the effects of aging populations and other societal factors on the risk of developing RA, and to develop targeted interventions, including smoking cessation programs, age- and gender-appropriate healthcare, and early diagnosis strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2e6b1efd7f9d4cf38eb6db7c4d4a7dee |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2050-7771 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Biomarker Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-2e6b1efd7f9d4cf38eb6db7c4d4a7dee2025-08-20T03:41:14ZengBMCBiomarker Research2050-77712025-03-0113111210.1186/s40364-025-00760-8Global, regional and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis from 1990 to 2021, with projections of incidence to 2050: a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2021Yingnan Ma0Haiyan Chen1Wenhua Lv2Siyu Wei3Yuping Zou4Ruilin Li5Jiacheng Wang6Wei She7Linna Yuan8Junxian Tao9Xuying Guo10Shuo Bi11Hongsheng Tian12Ye Ma13Hongmei Sun14Chen Sun15Jing Xu16Yu Dong17Jingxuan Kang18Hongchao Lv19Mingming Zhang20Yongshuai Jiang21College of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityFaculty of Information Engineering and Automation, Kunming University of Science and TechnologyCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityCollege of Bioinformatics Science and Technology, Harbin Medical UniversityAbstract Background To provide insights into rheumatoid arthritis (RA) epidemiological trends, including prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), corresponding average annual percentage change (AAPC), gender disparities, regional variations, age-specific rates, socio-economic correlations, risk factors, and future projections. Methods Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021. AAPC was calculated by joinpoint regression and two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed to verify the causal relationship between the smoking factor and RA. The future incidence trend was predicted by the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. Results Global age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased significantly while age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) decreased from 1990 to 2021. Regional variations were pronounced, with Andean Latin America reporting the highest burden. Females consistently exhibited higher age-standardized rate (ASR) across all metrics. Age-specific prevalence, incidence, and DALYs rates peaked at different age groups, highlighting complex demographic dynamics. Socio-demographic index (SDI) analysis demonstrated a positive correlation between RA burden and socio-economic development. The two-sample MR analysis confirmed a causal effect between smoking and RA. From 2022 to 2050, the ASIR will increase moderately. Conclusions The study underscores the escalating burden of RA globally, emphasizing the need for healthcare providers to be aware of the effects of aging populations and other societal factors on the risk of developing RA, and to develop targeted interventions, including smoking cessation programs, age- and gender-appropriate healthcare, and early diagnosis strategies.https://doi.org/10.1186/s40364-025-00760-8Rheumatoid arthritisGlobal burden of diseaseAutoimmune diseasePublic health |
| spellingShingle | Yingnan Ma Haiyan Chen Wenhua Lv Siyu Wei Yuping Zou Ruilin Li Jiacheng Wang Wei She Linna Yuan Junxian Tao Xuying Guo Shuo Bi Hongsheng Tian Ye Ma Hongmei Sun Chen Sun Jing Xu Yu Dong Jingxuan Kang Hongchao Lv Mingming Zhang Yongshuai Jiang Global, regional and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis from 1990 to 2021, with projections of incidence to 2050: a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2021 Biomarker Research Rheumatoid arthritis Global burden of disease Autoimmune disease Public health |
| title | Global, regional and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis from 1990 to 2021, with projections of incidence to 2050: a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2021 |
| title_full | Global, regional and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis from 1990 to 2021, with projections of incidence to 2050: a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Global, regional and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis from 1990 to 2021, with projections of incidence to 2050: a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global, regional and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis from 1990 to 2021, with projections of incidence to 2050: a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2021 |
| title_short | Global, regional and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis from 1990 to 2021, with projections of incidence to 2050: a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2021 |
| title_sort | global regional and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis from 1990 to 2021 with projections of incidence to 2050 a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| topic | Rheumatoid arthritis Global burden of disease Autoimmune disease Public health |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40364-025-00760-8 |
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