CMIP5 and CMIP6 Model Projection Comparison for Hydrological Impacts Over North America
Abstract A warmer climate impacts streamflows and these changes need to be quantified to assess future risk, vulnerability, and to implement efficient adaptation measures. The climate simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which have been the basis of...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098364 |
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| author | J.‐L. Martel F. Brissette M. Troin R. Arsenault J. Chen T. Su P. Lucas‐Picher |
| author_facet | J.‐L. Martel F. Brissette M. Troin R. Arsenault J. Chen T. Su P. Lucas‐Picher |
| author_sort | J.‐L. Martel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract A warmer climate impacts streamflows and these changes need to be quantified to assess future risk, vulnerability, and to implement efficient adaptation measures. The climate simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which have been the basis of most such assessments over the past decade, are being gradually superseded by the more recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our study portrays the added value of the CMIP6 ensemble over CMIP5 in a first North America wide comparison using 3,107 catchments. Results show a reduced spread of the CMIP6 ensemble compared to the CMIP5 ensemble for temperature and precipitation projections. In terms of flow indicators, the CMIP6 driven hydrological projections result in a smaller spread of future mean and high flow values, except for mountainous areas. Overall, we assess that the CMIP6 ensemble provides a narrower band of uncertainty of future climate projections, bringing more confidence for hydrological impact studies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2e3222f83d824254899749911456dbdc |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-2e3222f83d824254899749911456dbdc2025-08-20T02:27:42ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072022-08-014915n/an/a10.1029/2022GL098364CMIP5 and CMIP6 Model Projection Comparison for Hydrological Impacts Over North AmericaJ.‐L. Martel0F. Brissette1M. Troin2R. Arsenault3J. Chen4T. Su5P. Lucas‐Picher6Hydrology, Climate and Climate Change Laboratory École de technologie supérieure Université du Québec Montreal Quebec CanadaHydrology, Climate and Climate Change Laboratory École de technologie supérieure Université du Québec Montreal Quebec CanadaHydrology, Climate and Climate Change Laboratory École de technologie supérieure Université du Québec Montreal Quebec CanadaHydrology, Climate and Climate Change Laboratory École de technologie supérieure Université du Québec Montreal Quebec CanadaState Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science Wuhan University Wuhan ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science Wuhan University Wuhan ChinaGroupe de Météorologie de Grande Échelle et Climat (GMGEC) Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Université de Toulouse Météo‐France Toulouse FranceAbstract A warmer climate impacts streamflows and these changes need to be quantified to assess future risk, vulnerability, and to implement efficient adaptation measures. The climate simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which have been the basis of most such assessments over the past decade, are being gradually superseded by the more recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our study portrays the added value of the CMIP6 ensemble over CMIP5 in a first North America wide comparison using 3,107 catchments. Results show a reduced spread of the CMIP6 ensemble compared to the CMIP5 ensemble for temperature and precipitation projections. In terms of flow indicators, the CMIP6 driven hydrological projections result in a smaller spread of future mean and high flow values, except for mountainous areas. Overall, we assess that the CMIP6 ensemble provides a narrower band of uncertainty of future climate projections, bringing more confidence for hydrological impact studies.https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098364CMIP6CMIP5comparisonclimate changehydrological impactsNorth America |
| spellingShingle | J.‐L. Martel F. Brissette M. Troin R. Arsenault J. Chen T. Su P. Lucas‐Picher CMIP5 and CMIP6 Model Projection Comparison for Hydrological Impacts Over North America Geophysical Research Letters CMIP6 CMIP5 comparison climate change hydrological impacts North America |
| title | CMIP5 and CMIP6 Model Projection Comparison for Hydrological Impacts Over North America |
| title_full | CMIP5 and CMIP6 Model Projection Comparison for Hydrological Impacts Over North America |
| title_fullStr | CMIP5 and CMIP6 Model Projection Comparison for Hydrological Impacts Over North America |
| title_full_unstemmed | CMIP5 and CMIP6 Model Projection Comparison for Hydrological Impacts Over North America |
| title_short | CMIP5 and CMIP6 Model Projection Comparison for Hydrological Impacts Over North America |
| title_sort | cmip5 and cmip6 model projection comparison for hydrological impacts over north america |
| topic | CMIP6 CMIP5 comparison climate change hydrological impacts North America |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098364 |
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