Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China

Abstract Extreme precipitation is becoming more intense and frequent. The increasing trends in extreme precipitation in China in warm season related to changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs) are investigated using observations, reanalysis data and model simulations. A significant accelerati...

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Main Authors: Aili Zou, Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Pinya Wang, Hong Liao
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-02-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113887
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author Aili Zou
Yang Yang
Hailong Wang
Pinya Wang
Hong Liao
author_facet Aili Zou
Yang Yang
Hailong Wang
Pinya Wang
Hong Liao
author_sort Aili Zou
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Extreme precipitation is becoming more intense and frequent. The increasing trends in extreme precipitation in China in warm season related to changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs) are investigated using observations, reanalysis data and model simulations. A significant accelerating increase in extreme precipitation occurred around 2010, with the trend in accumulated extreme rainfall amount (R95pTOT) increasing from 2.88 mm per decade during 2000–2010 to 22.88 mm per decade during 2010–2023. The sudden acceleration of the increasing extreme precipitation is largely attributed to the reverse in aerosol trends associated with China’s clean air actions, which affects extreme precipitation through perturbing cloud microphysics and atmospheric dynamics, accounting for half of the change in R95pTOT trends. Future aerosol reduction to achieve carbon neutrality is shown to continue to intensify the extreme precipitation, which overweighs the effect induced by GHGs, highlighting the importance of aerosol changes in modulating future climate and weather extremes.
format Article
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institution DOAJ
issn 0094-8276
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language English
publishDate 2025-02-01
publisher Wiley
record_format Article
series Geophysical Research Letters
spelling doaj-art-2d2a4fbaf0534693ac2be65c940cdc062025-08-20T02:58:26ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-02-01524n/an/a10.1029/2024GL113887Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in ChinaAili Zou0Yang Yang1Hailong Wang2Pinya Wang3Hong Liao4Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology School of Environmental Science and Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaJoint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology School of Environmental Science and Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaAtmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USAJoint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology School of Environmental Science and Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaJoint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology School of Environmental Science and Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaAbstract Extreme precipitation is becoming more intense and frequent. The increasing trends in extreme precipitation in China in warm season related to changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs) are investigated using observations, reanalysis data and model simulations. A significant accelerating increase in extreme precipitation occurred around 2010, with the trend in accumulated extreme rainfall amount (R95pTOT) increasing from 2.88 mm per decade during 2000–2010 to 22.88 mm per decade during 2010–2023. The sudden acceleration of the increasing extreme precipitation is largely attributed to the reverse in aerosol trends associated with China’s clean air actions, which affects extreme precipitation through perturbing cloud microphysics and atmospheric dynamics, accounting for half of the change in R95pTOT trends. Future aerosol reduction to achieve carbon neutrality is shown to continue to intensify the extreme precipitation, which overweighs the effect induced by GHGs, highlighting the importance of aerosol changes in modulating future climate and weather extremes.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113887aerosolextreme precipitationclean air actiongreenhouse gas
spellingShingle Aili Zou
Yang Yang
Hailong Wang
Pinya Wang
Hong Liao
Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China
Geophysical Research Letters
aerosol
extreme precipitation
clean air action
greenhouse gas
title Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China
title_full Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China
title_fullStr Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China
title_full_unstemmed Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China
title_short Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China
title_sort aerosol decline accelerates the increasing extreme precipitation in china
topic aerosol
extreme precipitation
clean air action
greenhouse gas
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113887
work_keys_str_mv AT ailizou aerosoldeclineacceleratestheincreasingextremeprecipitationinchina
AT yangyang aerosoldeclineacceleratestheincreasingextremeprecipitationinchina
AT hailongwang aerosoldeclineacceleratestheincreasingextremeprecipitationinchina
AT pinyawang aerosoldeclineacceleratestheincreasingextremeprecipitationinchina
AT hongliao aerosoldeclineacceleratestheincreasingextremeprecipitationinchina