Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China
Abstract Extreme precipitation is becoming more intense and frequent. The increasing trends in extreme precipitation in China in warm season related to changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs) are investigated using observations, reanalysis data and model simulations. A significant accelerati...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113887 |
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| author | Aili Zou Yang Yang Hailong Wang Pinya Wang Hong Liao |
| author_facet | Aili Zou Yang Yang Hailong Wang Pinya Wang Hong Liao |
| author_sort | Aili Zou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Extreme precipitation is becoming more intense and frequent. The increasing trends in extreme precipitation in China in warm season related to changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs) are investigated using observations, reanalysis data and model simulations. A significant accelerating increase in extreme precipitation occurred around 2010, with the trend in accumulated extreme rainfall amount (R95pTOT) increasing from 2.88 mm per decade during 2000–2010 to 22.88 mm per decade during 2010–2023. The sudden acceleration of the increasing extreme precipitation is largely attributed to the reverse in aerosol trends associated with China’s clean air actions, which affects extreme precipitation through perturbing cloud microphysics and atmospheric dynamics, accounting for half of the change in R95pTOT trends. Future aerosol reduction to achieve carbon neutrality is shown to continue to intensify the extreme precipitation, which overweighs the effect induced by GHGs, highlighting the importance of aerosol changes in modulating future climate and weather extremes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2d2a4fbaf0534693ac2be65c940cdc06 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-2d2a4fbaf0534693ac2be65c940cdc062025-08-20T02:58:26ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-02-01524n/an/a10.1029/2024GL113887Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in ChinaAili Zou0Yang Yang1Hailong Wang2Pinya Wang3Hong Liao4Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology School of Environmental Science and Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaJoint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology School of Environmental Science and Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaAtmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USAJoint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology School of Environmental Science and Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaJoint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology School of Environmental Science and Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaAbstract Extreme precipitation is becoming more intense and frequent. The increasing trends in extreme precipitation in China in warm season related to changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs) are investigated using observations, reanalysis data and model simulations. A significant accelerating increase in extreme precipitation occurred around 2010, with the trend in accumulated extreme rainfall amount (R95pTOT) increasing from 2.88 mm per decade during 2000–2010 to 22.88 mm per decade during 2010–2023. The sudden acceleration of the increasing extreme precipitation is largely attributed to the reverse in aerosol trends associated with China’s clean air actions, which affects extreme precipitation through perturbing cloud microphysics and atmospheric dynamics, accounting for half of the change in R95pTOT trends. Future aerosol reduction to achieve carbon neutrality is shown to continue to intensify the extreme precipitation, which overweighs the effect induced by GHGs, highlighting the importance of aerosol changes in modulating future climate and weather extremes.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113887aerosolextreme precipitationclean air actiongreenhouse gas |
| spellingShingle | Aili Zou Yang Yang Hailong Wang Pinya Wang Hong Liao Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China Geophysical Research Letters aerosol extreme precipitation clean air action greenhouse gas |
| title | Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China |
| title_full | Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China |
| title_fullStr | Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China |
| title_short | Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China |
| title_sort | aerosol decline accelerates the increasing extreme precipitation in china |
| topic | aerosol extreme precipitation clean air action greenhouse gas |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113887 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ailizou aerosoldeclineacceleratestheincreasingextremeprecipitationinchina AT yangyang aerosoldeclineacceleratestheincreasingextremeprecipitationinchina AT hailongwang aerosoldeclineacceleratestheincreasingextremeprecipitationinchina AT pinyawang aerosoldeclineacceleratestheincreasingextremeprecipitationinchina AT hongliao aerosoldeclineacceleratestheincreasingextremeprecipitationinchina |