Low climate-patterned temperature and cardiovascular disease: Worldwide trends and implications for public health policy
Background: Short-term cold spells and heat events are commonly considered risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study quantitatively examined the effects of country-specific ''climate-patterned temperature'' (TMP), measured as long-term mean temperature, on global...
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Elsevier
2025-09-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Cardiology. Cardiovascular Risk and Prevention |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772487525000753 |
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| author | Wenpeng You Jacob Sevastidis Frank Donnelly |
| author_facet | Wenpeng You Jacob Sevastidis Frank Donnelly |
| author_sort | Wenpeng You |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Short-term cold spells and heat events are commonly considered risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study quantitatively examined the effects of country-specific ''climate-patterned temperature'' (TMP), measured as long-term mean temperature, on global CVD incidence. Methods: Recently published country-specific data on CVD incidence and TMP were analysed for statistical correlations at the population level using Microsoft Excel and SPSS. Confounding effects of humidity, aging, GDP PPP, obesity prevalence, and urbanization were controlled. Fisher r-to-z transformation compared correlation coefficients. Results: Pearson's r and nonparametric analyses revealed a significant inverse correlation between TMP and CVD incidence worldwide (r = −0.646 and −0.574, respectively, p < 0.001). This relationship remained significant after controlling for confounders in a partial correlation model (r = −0.584, p < 0.001). Multiple linear regression showed TMP as a significant and independent predictor of CVD incidence (Beta = −0.384, p < 0.001). Stepwise regression identified aging as the most influential factor (R2 = 0.591), with TMP and GDP PPP following, increasing R2 to 0.731 and 0.747, respectively. Humidity, obesity prevalence, and urbanization were not significant predictors. TMP had a stronger predictive effect on CVD incidence in high-income countries compared to low- and middle-income countries (z = 1.96 and 2.28 in Pearson's r and nonparametric models, respectively, p < 0.05). Conclusions: Long-term lower mean temperature (TMP) is a significant and independent risk factor for CVD worldwide, particularly in developed countries. TMP should be considered in epidemiological studies of CVD. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2cf0a78d9c554ef4bf53830e4befab02 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2772-4875 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Cardiology. Cardiovascular Risk and Prevention |
| spelling | doaj-art-2cf0a78d9c554ef4bf53830e4befab022025-08-24T05:15:14ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Cardiology. Cardiovascular Risk and Prevention2772-48752025-09-012620043710.1016/j.ijcrp.2025.200437Low climate-patterned temperature and cardiovascular disease: Worldwide trends and implications for public health policyWenpeng You0Jacob Sevastidis1Frank Donnelly2School of Biomedicine, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia; Adelaide Nursing School, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia; Heart and Lung, Royal Adelaide Hospital, Adelaide, Australia; School of Nursing and Midwifery, Western Sydney University, Sydney, Australia; Corresponding author. School of Biomedicine, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia.School of Biomedicine, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, AustraliaAdelaide Nursing School, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, AustraliaBackground: Short-term cold spells and heat events are commonly considered risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study quantitatively examined the effects of country-specific ''climate-patterned temperature'' (TMP), measured as long-term mean temperature, on global CVD incidence. Methods: Recently published country-specific data on CVD incidence and TMP were analysed for statistical correlations at the population level using Microsoft Excel and SPSS. Confounding effects of humidity, aging, GDP PPP, obesity prevalence, and urbanization were controlled. Fisher r-to-z transformation compared correlation coefficients. Results: Pearson's r and nonparametric analyses revealed a significant inverse correlation between TMP and CVD incidence worldwide (r = −0.646 and −0.574, respectively, p < 0.001). This relationship remained significant after controlling for confounders in a partial correlation model (r = −0.584, p < 0.001). Multiple linear regression showed TMP as a significant and independent predictor of CVD incidence (Beta = −0.384, p < 0.001). Stepwise regression identified aging as the most influential factor (R2 = 0.591), with TMP and GDP PPP following, increasing R2 to 0.731 and 0.747, respectively. Humidity, obesity prevalence, and urbanization were not significant predictors. TMP had a stronger predictive effect on CVD incidence in high-income countries compared to low- and middle-income countries (z = 1.96 and 2.28 in Pearson's r and nonparametric models, respectively, p < 0.05). Conclusions: Long-term lower mean temperature (TMP) is a significant and independent risk factor for CVD worldwide, particularly in developed countries. TMP should be considered in epidemiological studies of CVD.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772487525000753Cardiovascular disease incidenceCold temperatureClimate-patterned temperatureLong-term pattern of mean value of temperaturePopulation health |
| spellingShingle | Wenpeng You Jacob Sevastidis Frank Donnelly Low climate-patterned temperature and cardiovascular disease: Worldwide trends and implications for public health policy International Journal of Cardiology. Cardiovascular Risk and Prevention Cardiovascular disease incidence Cold temperature Climate-patterned temperature Long-term pattern of mean value of temperature Population health |
| title | Low climate-patterned temperature and cardiovascular disease: Worldwide trends and implications for public health policy |
| title_full | Low climate-patterned temperature and cardiovascular disease: Worldwide trends and implications for public health policy |
| title_fullStr | Low climate-patterned temperature and cardiovascular disease: Worldwide trends and implications for public health policy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Low climate-patterned temperature and cardiovascular disease: Worldwide trends and implications for public health policy |
| title_short | Low climate-patterned temperature and cardiovascular disease: Worldwide trends and implications for public health policy |
| title_sort | low climate patterned temperature and cardiovascular disease worldwide trends and implications for public health policy |
| topic | Cardiovascular disease incidence Cold temperature Climate-patterned temperature Long-term pattern of mean value of temperature Population health |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772487525000753 |
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