Evaluating the vulnerability of Tetracentron sinense habitats to climate‐induced latitudinal shifts
Abstract Exploring the changing process of the geographical distribution pattern of Tetracentron sinense Oliv. and its main influencing factors since the last interglacial period can provide a scientific basis for the effective protection and management of the species. The MaxEnt model was used to c...
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| Format: | Article |
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Wiley
2024-07-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.11710 |
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| author | Yuanjie Gan Lijun Cheng Junfeng Tang Hongyan Han Xiaohong Gan |
| author_facet | Yuanjie Gan Lijun Cheng Junfeng Tang Hongyan Han Xiaohong Gan |
| author_sort | Yuanjie Gan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Exploring the changing process of the geographical distribution pattern of Tetracentron sinense Oliv. and its main influencing factors since the last interglacial period can provide a scientific basis for the effective protection and management of the species. The MaxEnt model was used to construct the potential distribution areas of T. sinense in different periods such as the last interglacial (LIG), the last glacial maximum (LGM), the mid‐Holocene (MID), and the current and future (2050s and 2070s). On the premise of discussing the influence of dominant environmental factors on its distribution model, the suitable area changes of T. sinense under different ecological climate situations were quantitatively analyzed. (1) The AUC and TSS values predicted by the optimized model were 0.959 and 0.835, respectively, indicating a good predictive effect by the MaxEnt model; the potential suitable areas for T. sinense in the current period are mainly located in Southwest China, which are wider compared to the actual habitats. (2) Jackknife testing showed that the lowest temperature in the coldest month (Bio6), elevation (Elev), seasonal variation coefficient of temperature (Bio4), and surface calcium carbonate content (T‐CACO3) are the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. sinense. (3) From the last interglacial period to the current period, the total suitable area of T. sinense showed a decreasing trend; the distribution points of T. sinense populations in mid‐Holocene period may be the origin of the postglacial population, and Southwest China may be its glacial biological refuge. (4) Compared with the current period, the total suitable area ranges of T. sinense in China in the 2050s and 2070s decreased, and the centroid location of its total fitness area all migrated to the northwest, with the largest migration distance in 2070s under the SSPs 7.0 climate scenario. Temperature was the principal factor influencing the geographical distribution of T. sinense. With global warming, the range of T. sinense suitable areas will show a shrinking trend, with a shift toward higher‐latitude regions. Ex situ conservation measures could be taken to preserve its germplasm resources. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2ced9fa90ae14b41a3f34ebbd10433dd |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
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| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj-art-2ced9fa90ae14b41a3f34ebbd10433dd2025-08-20T02:50:48ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582024-07-01147n/an/a10.1002/ece3.11710Evaluating the vulnerability of Tetracentron sinense habitats to climate‐induced latitudinal shiftsYuanjie Gan0Lijun Cheng1Junfeng Tang2Hongyan Han3Xiaohong Gan4Key Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education) China West Normal University Nanchong ChinaKey Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education) China West Normal University Nanchong ChinaKey Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education) China West Normal University Nanchong ChinaKey Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education) China West Normal University Nanchong ChinaKey Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education) China West Normal University Nanchong ChinaAbstract Exploring the changing process of the geographical distribution pattern of Tetracentron sinense Oliv. and its main influencing factors since the last interglacial period can provide a scientific basis for the effective protection and management of the species. The MaxEnt model was used to construct the potential distribution areas of T. sinense in different periods such as the last interglacial (LIG), the last glacial maximum (LGM), the mid‐Holocene (MID), and the current and future (2050s and 2070s). On the premise of discussing the influence of dominant environmental factors on its distribution model, the suitable area changes of T. sinense under different ecological climate situations were quantitatively analyzed. (1) The AUC and TSS values predicted by the optimized model were 0.959 and 0.835, respectively, indicating a good predictive effect by the MaxEnt model; the potential suitable areas for T. sinense in the current period are mainly located in Southwest China, which are wider compared to the actual habitats. (2) Jackknife testing showed that the lowest temperature in the coldest month (Bio6), elevation (Elev), seasonal variation coefficient of temperature (Bio4), and surface calcium carbonate content (T‐CACO3) are the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. sinense. (3) From the last interglacial period to the current period, the total suitable area of T. sinense showed a decreasing trend; the distribution points of T. sinense populations in mid‐Holocene period may be the origin of the postglacial population, and Southwest China may be its glacial biological refuge. (4) Compared with the current period, the total suitable area ranges of T. sinense in China in the 2050s and 2070s decreased, and the centroid location of its total fitness area all migrated to the northwest, with the largest migration distance in 2070s under the SSPs 7.0 climate scenario. Temperature was the principal factor influencing the geographical distribution of T. sinense. With global warming, the range of T. sinense suitable areas will show a shrinking trend, with a shift toward higher‐latitude regions. Ex situ conservation measures could be taken to preserve its germplasm resources.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.11710climate changeimpact factorsMaxEntpotential suitable distribution areaTetracentron sinense |
| spellingShingle | Yuanjie Gan Lijun Cheng Junfeng Tang Hongyan Han Xiaohong Gan Evaluating the vulnerability of Tetracentron sinense habitats to climate‐induced latitudinal shifts Ecology and Evolution climate change impact factors MaxEnt potential suitable distribution area Tetracentron sinense |
| title | Evaluating the vulnerability of Tetracentron sinense habitats to climate‐induced latitudinal shifts |
| title_full | Evaluating the vulnerability of Tetracentron sinense habitats to climate‐induced latitudinal shifts |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating the vulnerability of Tetracentron sinense habitats to climate‐induced latitudinal shifts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating the vulnerability of Tetracentron sinense habitats to climate‐induced latitudinal shifts |
| title_short | Evaluating the vulnerability of Tetracentron sinense habitats to climate‐induced latitudinal shifts |
| title_sort | evaluating the vulnerability of tetracentron sinense habitats to climate induced latitudinal shifts |
| topic | climate change impact factors MaxEnt potential suitable distribution area Tetracentron sinense |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.11710 |
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