Long-Term Science and Technology Forecasting: Methodologies, Future Visions, Scenarios of Development
The paper considers methodological aspects of long-term technology forecasting with reference to modern economical development of Russia. It describes a matrix of long-term scenarios of technological development of Russia based either on primary-energy or innovation-active orientation of the nation...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
National Research University Higher School of Economics
2008-09-01
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| Series: | Foresight and STI Governance |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/article/view/19502 |
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| _version_ | 1849245934861418496 |
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| author | Dmitry Belousov Igor Frolov |
| author_facet | Dmitry Belousov Igor Frolov |
| author_sort | Dmitry Belousov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
The paper considers methodological aspects of long-term technology forecasting with reference to modern economical development of Russia. It describes a matrix of long-term scenarios of technological development of Russia based either on primary-energy or innovation-active orientation of the national economy. The paper also provides the forecasts of promising technologies in several priority sectors in the framework of the scenario of local technological leadership that is more preferable for Russia. Finally, it considers different kinds of risks (technological, administrative, political) that should be included in long-term forecasts.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2cc83ff9bb4e4a14b3381b1970752ff1 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2500-2597 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2008-09-01 |
| publisher | National Research University Higher School of Economics |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Foresight and STI Governance |
| spelling | doaj-art-2cc83ff9bb4e4a14b3381b1970752ff12025-08-20T03:58:40ZengNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsForesight and STI Governance2500-25972008-09-012310.17323/1995-459X.2008.3.54.66Long-Term Science and Technology Forecasting: Methodologies, Future Visions, Scenarios of DevelopmentDmitry Belousov0Igor Frolov1Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, 47 Nakhimovsky Ave., 117418 Moscow, RussiaInstitute for Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 47 Nakhimovsky Ave., 117418 Moscow, Russia The paper considers methodological aspects of long-term technology forecasting with reference to modern economical development of Russia. It describes a matrix of long-term scenarios of technological development of Russia based either on primary-energy or innovation-active orientation of the national economy. The paper also provides the forecasts of promising technologies in several priority sectors in the framework of the scenario of local technological leadership that is more preferable for Russia. Finally, it considers different kinds of risks (technological, administrative, political) that should be included in long-term forecasts. https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/article/view/19502technology forecast |
| spellingShingle | Dmitry Belousov Igor Frolov Long-Term Science and Technology Forecasting: Methodologies, Future Visions, Scenarios of Development Foresight and STI Governance technology forecast |
| title | Long-Term Science and Technology Forecasting: Methodologies, Future Visions, Scenarios of Development |
| title_full | Long-Term Science and Technology Forecasting: Methodologies, Future Visions, Scenarios of Development |
| title_fullStr | Long-Term Science and Technology Forecasting: Methodologies, Future Visions, Scenarios of Development |
| title_full_unstemmed | Long-Term Science and Technology Forecasting: Methodologies, Future Visions, Scenarios of Development |
| title_short | Long-Term Science and Technology Forecasting: Methodologies, Future Visions, Scenarios of Development |
| title_sort | long term science and technology forecasting methodologies future visions scenarios of development |
| topic | technology forecast |
| url | https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/article/view/19502 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dmitrybelousov longtermscienceandtechnologyforecastingmethodologiesfuturevisionsscenariosofdevelopment AT igorfrolov longtermscienceandtechnologyforecastingmethodologiesfuturevisionsscenariosofdevelopment |