Modeling Natural Gas Consumption Demand Based on Climatic Conditions in Zanjan City
Today, energy consumption plays a decisive role in the qualitative and quantitative development of human life. One of the energy sources that aligns with development, economic prosperity, and the acquisition of climatic comfort is natural gas. This energy source, especially in cold regions of the co...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
| Published: |
Kharazmi University
2025-09-01
|
| Series: | تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-4245-en.pdf |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849313122086551552 |
|---|---|
| author | Mohammad Mohammadi Hossein asakereh Abdollah faraji |
| author_facet | Mohammad Mohammadi Hossein asakereh Abdollah faraji |
| author_sort | Mohammad Mohammadi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Today, energy consumption plays a decisive role in the qualitative and quantitative development of human life. One of the energy sources that aligns with development, economic prosperity, and the acquisition of climatic comfort is natural gas. This energy source, especially in cold regions of the country, is essential for providing thermal comfort and requires proper management. Effective management of this fossil energy source depends on awareness and accurate forecasting of its demand. For this reason, the demand for natural gas in Zanjan city, one of the cold cities in Iran, was studied and modeled. Two groups of data—weather elements and natural gas consumption—over a period of 9 years (2013–2021) on a daily scale were used for this study. CurveExpert software and regression methods were employed to model the demand for natural gas in the city. Based on the most accurate pattern, temperature was selected as the only independent variable in the chosen model. Polynomial regression, with a correlation coefficient of 0.94 (coefficient of determination of 89.03%), was selected as the final model. The analysis revealed that the percentage increase in natural gas consumption per one-degree decrease in temperature varies across different temperature ranges. From 22°C to 16°C, the highest percentage increase in consumption was observed, while from 0°C to -5°C, the lowest percentage increase per one-degree decrease in temperature was recorded. The turning point and the beginning of issues related to natural gas shortages in Zanjan city were identified to occur at temperatures below -7°C. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2c982c8379db4745911c71fa49223c78 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2228-7736 2588-5138 |
| language | fas |
| publishDate | 2025-09-01 |
| publisher | Kharazmi University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی |
| spelling | doaj-art-2c982c8379db4745911c71fa49223c782025-08-20T03:52:52ZfasKharazmi Universityتحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی2228-77362588-51382025-09-012578398413Modeling Natural Gas Consumption Demand Based on Climatic Conditions in Zanjan CityMohammad Mohammadi0Hossein asakereh1Abdollah faraji2 Assistant Professor of Climatology, Department of Crisis Management, Faculty of Social Sciences, Command and Staff University of the Army, Tehran, Iran. Professor of Climatology, Department of Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran Associate Professor of Climatology, Department of Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran. Today, energy consumption plays a decisive role in the qualitative and quantitative development of human life. One of the energy sources that aligns with development, economic prosperity, and the acquisition of climatic comfort is natural gas. This energy source, especially in cold regions of the country, is essential for providing thermal comfort and requires proper management. Effective management of this fossil energy source depends on awareness and accurate forecasting of its demand. For this reason, the demand for natural gas in Zanjan city, one of the cold cities in Iran, was studied and modeled. Two groups of data—weather elements and natural gas consumption—over a period of 9 years (2013–2021) on a daily scale were used for this study. CurveExpert software and regression methods were employed to model the demand for natural gas in the city. Based on the most accurate pattern, temperature was selected as the only independent variable in the chosen model. Polynomial regression, with a correlation coefficient of 0.94 (coefficient of determination of 89.03%), was selected as the final model. The analysis revealed that the percentage increase in natural gas consumption per one-degree decrease in temperature varies across different temperature ranges. From 22°C to 16°C, the highest percentage increase in consumption was observed, while from 0°C to -5°C, the lowest percentage increase per one-degree decrease in temperature was recorded. The turning point and the beginning of issues related to natural gas shortages in Zanjan city were identified to occur at temperatures below -7°C.http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-4245-en.pdfmodelingpolynomial regressionnatural gaszanjan. |
| spellingShingle | Mohammad Mohammadi Hossein asakereh Abdollah faraji Modeling Natural Gas Consumption Demand Based on Climatic Conditions in Zanjan City تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی modeling polynomial regression natural gas zanjan. |
| title | Modeling Natural Gas Consumption Demand Based on Climatic Conditions in Zanjan City |
| title_full | Modeling Natural Gas Consumption Demand Based on Climatic Conditions in Zanjan City |
| title_fullStr | Modeling Natural Gas Consumption Demand Based on Climatic Conditions in Zanjan City |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling Natural Gas Consumption Demand Based on Climatic Conditions in Zanjan City |
| title_short | Modeling Natural Gas Consumption Demand Based on Climatic Conditions in Zanjan City |
| title_sort | modeling natural gas consumption demand based on climatic conditions in zanjan city |
| topic | modeling polynomial regression natural gas zanjan. |
| url | http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-4245-en.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mohammadmohammadi modelingnaturalgasconsumptiondemandbasedonclimaticconditionsinzanjancity AT hosseinasakereh modelingnaturalgasconsumptiondemandbasedonclimaticconditionsinzanjancity AT abdollahfaraji modelingnaturalgasconsumptiondemandbasedonclimaticconditionsinzanjancity |