Making Sense of Exchange Rate Pressures in Macroeconomic Statistics

The paper explores new statistical approaches for studying links between cross-border financial flows and the exchange rate. The paper first discusses limitations of the balance of payments statistics in analysing foreign exchange market imbalances by explaining the methodological principles that dr...

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Main Authors: Anna Drahozalová, Václav Rybáček
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Czech Statistical Office 2025-03-01
Series:Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal
Subjects:
Online Access:https://csu.gov.cz/docs/107508/110bbb50-90a7-d79c-92b3-452840739dd2/32019725q1_drahozalova_rybacek_barva.pdf?version=1.1
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author Anna Drahozalová
Václav Rybáček
author_facet Anna Drahozalová
Václav Rybáček
author_sort Anna Drahozalová
collection DOAJ
description The paper explores new statistical approaches for studying links between cross-border financial flows and the exchange rate. The paper first discusses limitations of the balance of payments statistics in analysing foreign exchange market imbalances by explaining the methodological principles that drive a wedge between balance of payments transactions and cross-border flows. Then it continues with a discussion on the analytical potential of the so-called monetary presentation of the balance payments. Visual analysis tentatively suggests that in the case of the CZK/EUR currency pair, net external flows (an aggregate identified by the monetary presentation) can explain reasonably well past exchange rate developments, if adjusted for central bank intervention.
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issn 0322-788X
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language English
publishDate 2025-03-01
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series Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal
spelling doaj-art-2c58bccdab4645be9d392bb3b13deb5a2025-08-20T02:06:40ZengCzech Statistical OfficeStatistika: Statistics and Economy Journal0322-788X1804-87652025-03-011051334810.54694/stat.2024.33Making Sense of Exchange Rate Pressures in Macroeconomic StatisticsAnna Drahozalová0Václav Rybáček1 Charles University, Prague, Czechia University of Economics and Management, Prague, CzechiaThe paper explores new statistical approaches for studying links between cross-border financial flows and the exchange rate. The paper first discusses limitations of the balance of payments statistics in analysing foreign exchange market imbalances by explaining the methodological principles that drive a wedge between balance of payments transactions and cross-border flows. Then it continues with a discussion on the analytical potential of the so-called monetary presentation of the balance payments. Visual analysis tentatively suggests that in the case of the CZK/EUR currency pair, net external flows (an aggregate identified by the monetary presentation) can explain reasonably well past exchange rate developments, if adjusted for central bank intervention.https://csu.gov.cz/docs/107508/110bbb50-90a7-d79c-92b3-452840739dd2/32019725q1_drahozalova_rybacek_barva.pdf?version=1.1balance of paymentsmonetary presentationmonetary aggregatesforeign exchange
spellingShingle Anna Drahozalová
Václav Rybáček
Making Sense of Exchange Rate Pressures in Macroeconomic Statistics
Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal
balance of payments
monetary presentation
monetary aggregates
foreign exchange
title Making Sense of Exchange Rate Pressures in Macroeconomic Statistics
title_full Making Sense of Exchange Rate Pressures in Macroeconomic Statistics
title_fullStr Making Sense of Exchange Rate Pressures in Macroeconomic Statistics
title_full_unstemmed Making Sense of Exchange Rate Pressures in Macroeconomic Statistics
title_short Making Sense of Exchange Rate Pressures in Macroeconomic Statistics
title_sort making sense of exchange rate pressures in macroeconomic statistics
topic balance of payments
monetary presentation
monetary aggregates
foreign exchange
url https://csu.gov.cz/docs/107508/110bbb50-90a7-d79c-92b3-452840739dd2/32019725q1_drahozalova_rybacek_barva.pdf?version=1.1
work_keys_str_mv AT annadrahozalova makingsenseofexchangeratepressuresinmacroeconomicstatistics
AT vaclavrybacek makingsenseofexchangeratepressuresinmacroeconomicstatistics