Making Sense of Exchange Rate Pressures in Macroeconomic Statistics
The paper explores new statistical approaches for studying links between cross-border financial flows and the exchange rate. The paper first discusses limitations of the balance of payments statistics in analysing foreign exchange market imbalances by explaining the methodological principles that dr...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Czech Statistical Office
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://csu.gov.cz/docs/107508/110bbb50-90a7-d79c-92b3-452840739dd2/32019725q1_drahozalova_rybacek_barva.pdf?version=1.1 |
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| _version_ | 1850221674393239552 |
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| author | Anna Drahozalová Václav Rybáček |
| author_facet | Anna Drahozalová Václav Rybáček |
| author_sort | Anna Drahozalová |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The paper explores new statistical approaches for studying links between cross-border financial flows and the exchange rate. The paper first discusses limitations of the balance of payments statistics in analysing foreign exchange market imbalances by explaining the methodological principles that drive a wedge between balance of payments transactions and cross-border flows. Then it continues with a discussion on the analytical potential of the so-called monetary presentation of the balance payments. Visual analysis tentatively suggests that in the case of the CZK/EUR currency pair, net external flows (an aggregate identified by the monetary presentation) can explain reasonably well past exchange rate developments, if adjusted for central bank intervention. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2c58bccdab4645be9d392bb3b13deb5a |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0322-788X 1804-8765 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Czech Statistical Office |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal |
| spelling | doaj-art-2c58bccdab4645be9d392bb3b13deb5a2025-08-20T02:06:40ZengCzech Statistical OfficeStatistika: Statistics and Economy Journal0322-788X1804-87652025-03-011051334810.54694/stat.2024.33Making Sense of Exchange Rate Pressures in Macroeconomic StatisticsAnna Drahozalová0Václav Rybáček1 Charles University, Prague, Czechia University of Economics and Management, Prague, CzechiaThe paper explores new statistical approaches for studying links between cross-border financial flows and the exchange rate. The paper first discusses limitations of the balance of payments statistics in analysing foreign exchange market imbalances by explaining the methodological principles that drive a wedge between balance of payments transactions and cross-border flows. Then it continues with a discussion on the analytical potential of the so-called monetary presentation of the balance payments. Visual analysis tentatively suggests that in the case of the CZK/EUR currency pair, net external flows (an aggregate identified by the monetary presentation) can explain reasonably well past exchange rate developments, if adjusted for central bank intervention.https://csu.gov.cz/docs/107508/110bbb50-90a7-d79c-92b3-452840739dd2/32019725q1_drahozalova_rybacek_barva.pdf?version=1.1balance of paymentsmonetary presentationmonetary aggregatesforeign exchange |
| spellingShingle | Anna Drahozalová Václav Rybáček Making Sense of Exchange Rate Pressures in Macroeconomic Statistics Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal balance of payments monetary presentation monetary aggregates foreign exchange |
| title | Making Sense of Exchange Rate Pressures in Macroeconomic Statistics |
| title_full | Making Sense of Exchange Rate Pressures in Macroeconomic Statistics |
| title_fullStr | Making Sense of Exchange Rate Pressures in Macroeconomic Statistics |
| title_full_unstemmed | Making Sense of Exchange Rate Pressures in Macroeconomic Statistics |
| title_short | Making Sense of Exchange Rate Pressures in Macroeconomic Statistics |
| title_sort | making sense of exchange rate pressures in macroeconomic statistics |
| topic | balance of payments monetary presentation monetary aggregates foreign exchange |
| url | https://csu.gov.cz/docs/107508/110bbb50-90a7-d79c-92b3-452840739dd2/32019725q1_drahozalova_rybacek_barva.pdf?version=1.1 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT annadrahozalova makingsenseofexchangeratepressuresinmacroeconomicstatistics AT vaclavrybacek makingsenseofexchangeratepressuresinmacroeconomicstatistics |