Modeling the Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Spread in Kenya
Mathematical modeling of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Kenya is presented. A susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) compartment model is considered with additional compartments of hospitalized population whose condition is severe or critical and t...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/6231461 |
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| author | Duncan K. Gathungu Viona N. Ojiambo Mark E. M. Kimathi Samuel M. Mwalili |
| author_facet | Duncan K. Gathungu Viona N. Ojiambo Mark E. M. Kimathi Samuel M. Mwalili |
| author_sort | Duncan K. Gathungu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Mathematical modeling of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Kenya is presented. A susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) compartment model is considered with additional compartments of hospitalized population whose condition is severe or critical and the fatality compartment. The basic reproduction number (R0) is computed by the next-generation matrix approach and later expressed as a time-dependent function so as to incorporate the NPIs into the model. The resulting system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is solved using fourth-order and fifth-order Runge–Kutta methods. Different intervention scenarios are considered, and the results show that implementation of closure of education institutions, curfew, and partial lockdown yields predicted delayed peaks of the overall infections, severe cases, and fatalities and subsequently containment of the pandemic in the country. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2c31898f940b44d7835c781be0fa9d6b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-708X 1687-7098 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-2c31898f940b44d7835c781be0fa9d6b2025-02-03T06:43:42ZengWileyInterdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases1687-708X1687-70982020-01-01202010.1155/2020/62314616231461Modeling the Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Spread in KenyaDuncan K. Gathungu0Viona N. Ojiambo1Mark E. M. Kimathi2Samuel M. Mwalili3Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Juja, KenyaJomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Juja, KenyaMachakos University, Machakos, KenyaJomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Juja, KenyaMathematical modeling of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Kenya is presented. A susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) compartment model is considered with additional compartments of hospitalized population whose condition is severe or critical and the fatality compartment. The basic reproduction number (R0) is computed by the next-generation matrix approach and later expressed as a time-dependent function so as to incorporate the NPIs into the model. The resulting system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is solved using fourth-order and fifth-order Runge–Kutta methods. Different intervention scenarios are considered, and the results show that implementation of closure of education institutions, curfew, and partial lockdown yields predicted delayed peaks of the overall infections, severe cases, and fatalities and subsequently containment of the pandemic in the country.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/6231461 |
| spellingShingle | Duncan K. Gathungu Viona N. Ojiambo Mark E. M. Kimathi Samuel M. Mwalili Modeling the Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Spread in Kenya Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases |
| title | Modeling the Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Spread in Kenya |
| title_full | Modeling the Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Spread in Kenya |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Spread in Kenya |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Spread in Kenya |
| title_short | Modeling the Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Spread in Kenya |
| title_sort | modeling the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions on covid 19 spread in kenya |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/6231461 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT duncankgathungu modelingtheeffectsofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsoncovid19spreadinkenya AT vionanojiambo modelingtheeffectsofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsoncovid19spreadinkenya AT markemkimathi modelingtheeffectsofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsoncovid19spreadinkenya AT samuelmmwalili modelingtheeffectsofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsoncovid19spreadinkenya |