Reversal of Projected European Summer Precipitation Decline in a Stabilizing Climate
Abstract Precipitation projections in transient climate change scenarios have been extensively studied over multiple climate model generations. Although these simulations have also been used to make projections at specific Global Warming Levels (GWLs), dedicated simulations are more appropriate to s...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107448 |
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| author | A. J. Dittus M. Collins R. Sutton E. Hawkins |
| author_facet | A. J. Dittus M. Collins R. Sutton E. Hawkins |
| author_sort | A. J. Dittus |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Precipitation projections in transient climate change scenarios have been extensively studied over multiple climate model generations. Although these simulations have also been used to make projections at specific Global Warming Levels (GWLs), dedicated simulations are more appropriate to study changes in a stabilizing climate. Here, we analyze precipitation projections in six multi‐century experiments with fixed atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, conducted with the UK Earth System Model and which span a range of GWLs between 1.5 and 5°C of warming. Regions are identified where the sign of precipitation trends in high‐emission transient projections is reversed in the stabilization experiments. For example, stabilization reverses a summertime precipitation decline across Europe. This precipitation recovery occurs concurrently with changes in the pattern of Atlantic sea surface temperature trends due to a slow recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the stabilization experiments, along with changes in humidity and atmospheric circulation. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2b66c751d05f4e66b25090360a242f40 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-2b66c751d05f4e66b25090360a242f402025-08-20T03:49:37ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-03-01516n/an/a10.1029/2023GL107448Reversal of Projected European Summer Precipitation Decline in a Stabilizing ClimateA. J. Dittus0M. Collins1R. Sutton2E. Hawkins3National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UKCollege of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UKNational Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UKNational Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UKAbstract Precipitation projections in transient climate change scenarios have been extensively studied over multiple climate model generations. Although these simulations have also been used to make projections at specific Global Warming Levels (GWLs), dedicated simulations are more appropriate to study changes in a stabilizing climate. Here, we analyze precipitation projections in six multi‐century experiments with fixed atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, conducted with the UK Earth System Model and which span a range of GWLs between 1.5 and 5°C of warming. Regions are identified where the sign of precipitation trends in high‐emission transient projections is reversed in the stabilization experiments. For example, stabilization reverses a summertime precipitation decline across Europe. This precipitation recovery occurs concurrently with changes in the pattern of Atlantic sea surface temperature trends due to a slow recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the stabilization experiments, along with changes in humidity and atmospheric circulation.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107448climate stabilizationprecipitation projectionsglobal warming levels |
| spellingShingle | A. J. Dittus M. Collins R. Sutton E. Hawkins Reversal of Projected European Summer Precipitation Decline in a Stabilizing Climate Geophysical Research Letters climate stabilization precipitation projections global warming levels |
| title | Reversal of Projected European Summer Precipitation Decline in a Stabilizing Climate |
| title_full | Reversal of Projected European Summer Precipitation Decline in a Stabilizing Climate |
| title_fullStr | Reversal of Projected European Summer Precipitation Decline in a Stabilizing Climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reversal of Projected European Summer Precipitation Decline in a Stabilizing Climate |
| title_short | Reversal of Projected European Summer Precipitation Decline in a Stabilizing Climate |
| title_sort | reversal of projected european summer precipitation decline in a stabilizing climate |
| topic | climate stabilization precipitation projections global warming levels |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107448 |
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