Vegetation patterning can both impede and trigger critical transitions from savanna to grassland
Tree-grass coexistence is a defining feature of savanna ecosystems, which play an important role in supporting biodiversity and human populations worldwide. While recent advances have clarified many of the underlying processes, how these mechanisms interact to shape ecosystem dynamics under environm...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adc3ab |
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| author | Jelle van der Voort Mara Baudena Ehud Meron Max Rietkerk Arjen Doelman |
| author_facet | Jelle van der Voort Mara Baudena Ehud Meron Max Rietkerk Arjen Doelman |
| author_sort | Jelle van der Voort |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Tree-grass coexistence is a defining feature of savanna ecosystems, which play an important role in supporting biodiversity and human populations worldwide. While recent advances have clarified many of the underlying processes, how these mechanisms interact to shape ecosystem dynamics under environmental stress is not yet understood. Here, we present and analyse a minimalistic spatially extended model of tree-grass dynamics in dry savannas. We incorporate tree facilitation of grasses through shading and grass competing with trees for water, both varying with tree life stage. Our model shows that these mechanisms lead to grass-tree coexistence and bistability between savanna and grassland states. Moreover, the model predicts vegetation patterns consisting of trees and grasses, particularly under harsh environmental conditions, which can persist in situations where a non-spatial version of the model predicts ecosystem collapse from savanna to grassland instead (a phenomenon called ‘Turing-evades-tipping’). Additionally, we identify a novel ‘Turing-triggers-tipping’ mechanism, where unstable pattern formation drives tipping events that are overlooked when spatial dynamics are not included. These transient patterns act as early warning signals for ecosystem transitions, offering a critical window for intervention. Further theoretical and empirical research is needed to determine when spatial patterns prevent tipping or drive collapse. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2b64a0037fb24c30a7eb1869e384134a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-2b64a0037fb24c30a7eb1869e384134a2025-08-22T15:34:47ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262025-01-0120909405210.1088/1748-9326/adc3abVegetation patterning can both impede and trigger critical transitions from savanna to grasslandJelle van der Voort0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7710-3222Mara Baudena1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6873-6466Ehud Meron2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3602-7411Max Rietkerk3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2698-3848Arjen Doelman4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4369-4172Mathematical Institute, Leiden University , 2300 RA Leiden, The NetherlandsNational Research Council, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC) , 10133 Torino, Italy; National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC) , 90133 Palermo, ItalyThe Swiss Institute for Dryland Environmental and Energy Research, BIDR, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev , Midreshet Ben-Gurion 8499000, Israel; Physics Department, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev , Beer-Sheva 8410501, IsraelCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Section Environmental Sciences, Utrecht University , Utrecht, The NetherlandsMathematical Institute, Leiden University , 2300 RA Leiden, The NetherlandsTree-grass coexistence is a defining feature of savanna ecosystems, which play an important role in supporting biodiversity and human populations worldwide. While recent advances have clarified many of the underlying processes, how these mechanisms interact to shape ecosystem dynamics under environmental stress is not yet understood. Here, we present and analyse a minimalistic spatially extended model of tree-grass dynamics in dry savannas. We incorporate tree facilitation of grasses through shading and grass competing with trees for water, both varying with tree life stage. Our model shows that these mechanisms lead to grass-tree coexistence and bistability between savanna and grassland states. Moreover, the model predicts vegetation patterns consisting of trees and grasses, particularly under harsh environmental conditions, which can persist in situations where a non-spatial version of the model predicts ecosystem collapse from savanna to grassland instead (a phenomenon called ‘Turing-evades-tipping’). Additionally, we identify a novel ‘Turing-triggers-tipping’ mechanism, where unstable pattern formation drives tipping events that are overlooked when spatial dynamics are not included. These transient patterns act as early warning signals for ecosystem transitions, offering a critical window for intervention. Further theoretical and empirical research is needed to determine when spatial patterns prevent tipping or drive collapse.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adc3absavanna ecosystemsspatial dynamicsvegetation pattern formationecosystem resiliencecritical transitionsearly warning signals |
| spellingShingle | Jelle van der Voort Mara Baudena Ehud Meron Max Rietkerk Arjen Doelman Vegetation patterning can both impede and trigger critical transitions from savanna to grassland Environmental Research Letters savanna ecosystems spatial dynamics vegetation pattern formation ecosystem resilience critical transitions early warning signals |
| title | Vegetation patterning can both impede and trigger critical transitions from savanna to grassland |
| title_full | Vegetation patterning can both impede and trigger critical transitions from savanna to grassland |
| title_fullStr | Vegetation patterning can both impede and trigger critical transitions from savanna to grassland |
| title_full_unstemmed | Vegetation patterning can both impede and trigger critical transitions from savanna to grassland |
| title_short | Vegetation patterning can both impede and trigger critical transitions from savanna to grassland |
| title_sort | vegetation patterning can both impede and trigger critical transitions from savanna to grassland |
| topic | savanna ecosystems spatial dynamics vegetation pattern formation ecosystem resilience critical transitions early warning signals |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adc3ab |
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