Estimation of the excess cases of hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model
ObjectiveTo establish an adjusted Serfling regression model to estimate the excess cases and the excess epidemic period of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, so as to provide data support and decision-making basis for HFMD prevention and control.MethodsThe weekly number of...
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Shanghai Preventive Medicine Association
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Shanghai yufang yixue |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sjpm.org.cn/article/doi/10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2025.24571 |
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| author | DONG Shuaibing WANG Ruitong HUO Da LIU Baiwei ZHAO Hao GAO Zhiyong WANG Xiaoli YANG Peng WANG Quanyi ZHANG Daitao |
| author_facet | DONG Shuaibing WANG Ruitong HUO Da LIU Baiwei ZHAO Hao GAO Zhiyong WANG Xiaoli YANG Peng WANG Quanyi ZHANG Daitao |
| author_sort | DONG Shuaibing |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ObjectiveTo establish an adjusted Serfling regression model to estimate the excess cases and the excess epidemic period of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, so as to provide data support and decision-making basis for HFMD prevention and control.MethodsThe weekly number of HFMD cases in Beijing from 2011 to 2019 was utilized for adjusted the Serfling regression model. Then the adjusted model was used to fit the baseline and epidemic threshold of HFMD in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, calculating the excess cases and determining the excess epidemic period.ResultsA total of 279 306 cases of HFMD were reported in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, with the climax of the disease occurring in summer and autumn. After adjusting the fitting R2 of the Serfling regression model to 0.773, a total of 10 excess epidemic periods totaling 92 weeks were estimated, mainly occurring in summer. The highest number of excess cases during an excess epidemic period was found in 2014 (1 272 cases, 95%CI: 990‒1 554), accounting for 65.04% of the actual cases (95%CI: 50.62%‒79.46%).ConclusionThe adjusted Serfling regression model fits well and can be utilized for early warning of HFMD and estimating the disease burden caused by HFMD. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2b56af4ac0804ea9ba4db6389ecdc4b2 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1004-9231 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Shanghai Preventive Medicine Association |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Shanghai yufang yixue |
| spelling | doaj-art-2b56af4ac0804ea9ba4db6389ecdc4b22025-08-20T02:40:13ZzhoShanghai Preventive Medicine AssociationShanghai yufang yixue1004-92312025-03-0137320620910.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2025.245711004-9231（2025）03-0206-04Estimation of the excess cases of hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression modelDONG Shuaibing0WANG Ruitong1HUO Da2LIU Baiwei3ZHAO Hao4GAO Zhiyong5WANG Xiaoli6YANG Peng7WANG Quanyi8ZHANG Daitao9Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, ChinaInstitute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, ChinaInstitute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, ChinaInstitute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, ChinaInstitute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, ChinaBeijing Office of Global Health, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, ChinaCentral Office, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, ChinaCentral Office, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, ChinaInstitute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing 100013, ChinaObjectiveTo establish an adjusted Serfling regression model to estimate the excess cases and the excess epidemic period of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, so as to provide data support and decision-making basis for HFMD prevention and control.MethodsThe weekly number of HFMD cases in Beijing from 2011 to 2019 was utilized for adjusted the Serfling regression model. Then the adjusted model was used to fit the baseline and epidemic threshold of HFMD in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, calculating the excess cases and determining the excess epidemic period.ResultsA total of 279 306 cases of HFMD were reported in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, with the climax of the disease occurring in summer and autumn. After adjusting the fitting R2 of the Serfling regression model to 0.773, a total of 10 excess epidemic periods totaling 92 weeks were estimated, mainly occurring in summer. The highest number of excess cases during an excess epidemic period was found in 2014 (1 272 cases, 95%CI: 990‒1 554), accounting for 65.04% of the actual cases (95%CI: 50.62%‒79.46%).ConclusionThe adjusted Serfling regression model fits well and can be utilized for early warning of HFMD and estimating the disease burden caused by HFMD.http://www.sjpm.org.cn/article/doi/10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2025.24571hand-foot-mouth diseaseadjusted serfling regression modelexcess caseexcess epidemic perioddisease burden |
| spellingShingle | DONG Shuaibing WANG Ruitong HUO Da LIU Baiwei ZHAO Hao GAO Zhiyong WANG Xiaoli YANG Peng WANG Quanyi ZHANG Daitao Estimation of the excess cases of hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model Shanghai yufang yixue hand-foot-mouth disease adjusted serfling regression model excess case excess epidemic period disease burden |
| title | Estimation of the excess cases of hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model |
| title_full | Estimation of the excess cases of hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of the excess cases of hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of the excess cases of hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model |
| title_short | Estimation of the excess cases of hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model |
| title_sort | estimation of the excess cases of hand foot mouth disease in beijing with adjusted serfling regression model |
| topic | hand-foot-mouth disease adjusted serfling regression model excess case excess epidemic period disease burden |
| url | http://www.sjpm.org.cn/article/doi/10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2025.24571 |
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