Sovereign debt sustainability in MENA countries: Determinants and policy implications
This paper examines sovereign debt sustainability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by comprehensively analyzing macroeconomic, institutional, and geopolitical determinants. Using a panel dataset of 15 MENA countries spanning 2000-2023, we employ dynamic panel estimation techniques t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Modern Finance Institute
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Modern Finance |
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| Online Access: | https://mf-journal.com/article/view/274 |
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| _version_ | 1850277326551515136 |
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| author | Kais Ben Mbarek |
| author_facet | Kais Ben Mbarek |
| author_sort | Kais Ben Mbarek |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper examines sovereign debt sustainability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by comprehensively analyzing macroeconomic, institutional, and geopolitical determinants. Using a panel dataset of 15 MENA countries spanning 2000-2023, we employ dynamic panel estimation techniques to identify key factors affecting debt sustainability. Our findings reveal significant heterogeneity across the region, with oil-exporting countries demonstrating distinct debt dynamics compared to oil-importing nations. Institutional quality and governance indicators emerge as critical predictors of debt sustainability beyond traditional macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, our threshold analysis identifies specific debt-to-GDP levels at which growth effects become negative, varying substantially across country groups. The results underscore the importance of tailored policy approaches to regional debt management, challenging one-size-fits-all recommendations from international financial institutions. This research contributes to the literature by developing a novel composite debt sustainability index and providing empirical evidence on the region-specific determinants of sustainable sovereign debt management.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2b4a3b1047c84fa1a89df2232365c4d9 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2956-7742 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Modern Finance Institute |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Modern Finance |
| spelling | doaj-art-2b4a3b1047c84fa1a89df2232365c4d92025-08-20T01:49:55ZengModern Finance InstituteModern Finance2956-77422025-05-013210.61351/mf.v3i2.274Sovereign debt sustainability in MENA countries: Determinants and policy implicationsKais Ben Mbarek0University of JendoubaThis paper examines sovereign debt sustainability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by comprehensively analyzing macroeconomic, institutional, and geopolitical determinants. Using a panel dataset of 15 MENA countries spanning 2000-2023, we employ dynamic panel estimation techniques to identify key factors affecting debt sustainability. Our findings reveal significant heterogeneity across the region, with oil-exporting countries demonstrating distinct debt dynamics compared to oil-importing nations. Institutional quality and governance indicators emerge as critical predictors of debt sustainability beyond traditional macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, our threshold analysis identifies specific debt-to-GDP levels at which growth effects become negative, varying substantially across country groups. The results underscore the importance of tailored policy approaches to regional debt management, challenging one-size-fits-all recommendations from international financial institutions. This research contributes to the literature by developing a novel composite debt sustainability index and providing empirical evidence on the region-specific determinants of sustainable sovereign debt management. https://mf-journal.com/article/view/274sovereign debtfiscal sustainabilityMENA economiesdebt managementinstitutional qualityeconomic diversification |
| spellingShingle | Kais Ben Mbarek Sovereign debt sustainability in MENA countries: Determinants and policy implications Modern Finance sovereign debt fiscal sustainability MENA economies debt management institutional quality economic diversification |
| title | Sovereign debt sustainability in MENA countries: Determinants and policy implications |
| title_full | Sovereign debt sustainability in MENA countries: Determinants and policy implications |
| title_fullStr | Sovereign debt sustainability in MENA countries: Determinants and policy implications |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sovereign debt sustainability in MENA countries: Determinants and policy implications |
| title_short | Sovereign debt sustainability in MENA countries: Determinants and policy implications |
| title_sort | sovereign debt sustainability in mena countries determinants and policy implications |
| topic | sovereign debt fiscal sustainability MENA economies debt management institutional quality economic diversification |
| url | https://mf-journal.com/article/view/274 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kaisbenmbarek sovereigndebtsustainabilityinmenacountriesdeterminantsandpolicyimplications |