The belt and road initiative and risk transmission mechanisms in China's manufacturing global industry chain: a structural vulnerability analysis
Abstract Amidst the complex dynamics of global industrial chain reconstruction and the rise of anti-globalization, this study explores the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in altering the risk exposure of China's manufacturing industry chain. The interaction mechanism of risk and tr...
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Springer
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Digital Economy and Sustainable Development |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s44265-025-00065-6 |
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| author | Xue Chen Maoqiang Zhang Gongyan Yang |
| author_facet | Xue Chen Maoqiang Zhang Gongyan Yang |
| author_sort | Xue Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Amidst the complex dynamics of global industrial chain reconstruction and the rise of anti-globalization, this study explores the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in altering the risk exposure of China's manufacturing industry chain. The interaction mechanism of risk and trade transfers are analyzed through a blend of theoretical analysis and empirical research. Specifically, the two-way fixed effects panel difference-in-differences (DID) model is established to conduct empirical analysis based on industry-level data from 74 countries covered by TIVA-ICIO database. It is found that the Belt and Road Initiative functions as an effective mechanism adjusts the import and export trade structure, playing a crucial role in migrating the supply chain to countries involved, thereby creating what is referred to as "geographical alternative dependence." As a result of this development, China's risk exposure on both the supply and demand sides of BRI countries experiences a substantial increase, while its dependence on non-BRI countries witnesses a decline. The internal circulation, achieved through the localization of key technologies, serves to weaken the supply dependence on non-BRI countries. Conversely, the external circulation contributes to expanding the market share of BRI countries. Nevertheless, it is noted that despite these advancements, the risk exposure within high-tech industries has not shown a significant improvement due to potential discrepancies in the global industry chains. Heterogeneity analysis indicates a notable impact of the initiative in enhancing the risk exposure of low- and middle-income participating nations. This trend reflects China's strategic direction of delegating low- and middle-end production capacities to developing countries and optimizing the international division of labor. In light of these findings, it is imperative for China to intensify its efforts in key technology research, establish a regional cooperation network based on the "anchor + backup" model, and enhance the overall risk prevention and control system across the entire supply chain. These measures are crucial for laying a theoretical foundation and offering practical insights to effectively coordinate the security of the industrial chain and promote the high-quality development of an open economy. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2affeae7de694456a8995f1a11b6702a |
| institution | OA Journals |
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| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Springer |
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| series | Digital Economy and Sustainable Development |
| spelling | doaj-art-2affeae7de694456a8995f1a11b6702a2025-08-20T02:15:16ZengSpringerDigital Economy and Sustainable Development2731-94232025-05-013111710.1007/s44265-025-00065-6The belt and road initiative and risk transmission mechanisms in China's manufacturing global industry chain: a structural vulnerability analysisXue Chen0Maoqiang Zhang1Gongyan Yang2School of International Economics and International Relations, Liaoning UniversitySchool of International Economics and International Relations, Liaoning UniversitySchool of International Economics and International Relations, Liaoning UniversityAbstract Amidst the complex dynamics of global industrial chain reconstruction and the rise of anti-globalization, this study explores the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in altering the risk exposure of China's manufacturing industry chain. The interaction mechanism of risk and trade transfers are analyzed through a blend of theoretical analysis and empirical research. Specifically, the two-way fixed effects panel difference-in-differences (DID) model is established to conduct empirical analysis based on industry-level data from 74 countries covered by TIVA-ICIO database. It is found that the Belt and Road Initiative functions as an effective mechanism adjusts the import and export trade structure, playing a crucial role in migrating the supply chain to countries involved, thereby creating what is referred to as "geographical alternative dependence." As a result of this development, China's risk exposure on both the supply and demand sides of BRI countries experiences a substantial increase, while its dependence on non-BRI countries witnesses a decline. The internal circulation, achieved through the localization of key technologies, serves to weaken the supply dependence on non-BRI countries. Conversely, the external circulation contributes to expanding the market share of BRI countries. Nevertheless, it is noted that despite these advancements, the risk exposure within high-tech industries has not shown a significant improvement due to potential discrepancies in the global industry chains. Heterogeneity analysis indicates a notable impact of the initiative in enhancing the risk exposure of low- and middle-income participating nations. This trend reflects China's strategic direction of delegating low- and middle-end production capacities to developing countries and optimizing the international division of labor. In light of these findings, it is imperative for China to intensify its efforts in key technology research, establish a regional cooperation network based on the "anchor + backup" model, and enhance the overall risk prevention and control system across the entire supply chain. These measures are crucial for laying a theoretical foundation and offering practical insights to effectively coordinate the security of the industrial chain and promote the high-quality development of an open economy.https://doi.org/10.1007/s44265-025-00065-6Belt and roadManufacturing industry chainRisk exposureDifference-in-differences model |
| spellingShingle | Xue Chen Maoqiang Zhang Gongyan Yang The belt and road initiative and risk transmission mechanisms in China's manufacturing global industry chain: a structural vulnerability analysis Digital Economy and Sustainable Development Belt and road Manufacturing industry chain Risk exposure Difference-in-differences model |
| title | The belt and road initiative and risk transmission mechanisms in China's manufacturing global industry chain: a structural vulnerability analysis |
| title_full | The belt and road initiative and risk transmission mechanisms in China's manufacturing global industry chain: a structural vulnerability analysis |
| title_fullStr | The belt and road initiative and risk transmission mechanisms in China's manufacturing global industry chain: a structural vulnerability analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | The belt and road initiative and risk transmission mechanisms in China's manufacturing global industry chain: a structural vulnerability analysis |
| title_short | The belt and road initiative and risk transmission mechanisms in China's manufacturing global industry chain: a structural vulnerability analysis |
| title_sort | belt and road initiative and risk transmission mechanisms in china s manufacturing global industry chain a structural vulnerability analysis |
| topic | Belt and road Manufacturing industry chain Risk exposure Difference-in-differences model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s44265-025-00065-6 |
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