Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogue method
<p>Extreme event attribution methodologies have been proposed to estimate the impacts of anthropogenic global warming on observed climatological and meteorological extremes. The classical risk-based approach uses extreme value theory (EVT) to derive changes in the unconditional probabilities o...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/817/2025/wcd-6-817-2025.pdf |
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| author | R. Noyelle R. Noyelle D. Faranda D. Faranda D. Faranda Y. Robin M. Vrac P. Yiou |
| author_facet | R. Noyelle R. Noyelle D. Faranda D. Faranda D. Faranda Y. Robin M. Vrac P. Yiou |
| author_sort | R. Noyelle |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Extreme event attribution methodologies have been proposed to estimate the impacts of anthropogenic global warming on observed climatological and meteorological extremes. The classical risk-based approach uses extreme value theory (EVT) to derive changes in the unconditional probabilities of yearly maxima but bears the risk of comparing events with different dynamical mechanisms. The flow analogue method is a conditional attribution method which compares events with similar synoptic-scale dynamics. Here we propose a procedure for estimating both the conditional intensity change and the probability ratio of observed extreme events with this method. We illustrate the procedure on three recent extreme events in Europe and compare the results obtained to the EVT-based approach. We show that the conditional flow analogue method tends to give more significant results for these events, which suggests a stronger climate change signal than the one detected with the unconditional approach.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2af6e0191ddb431ea584d2e105903c65 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2698-4016 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj-art-2af6e0191ddb431ea584d2e105903c652025-08-20T02:57:47ZengCopernicus PublicationsWeather and Climate Dynamics2698-40162025-08-01681783910.5194/wcd-6-817-2025Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogue methodR. Noyelle0R. Noyelle1D. Faranda2D. Faranda3D. Faranda4Y. Robin5M. Vrac6P. Yiou7Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay and IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91191, FranceInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, SwitzerlandLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay and IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91191, FranceLondon Mathematical Laboratory, 8 Margravine Gardens London, W6 8RH, London, United KingdomLaboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, École Polytechnique, IP Paris, CNRS, 75005, Paris, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay and IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91191, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay and IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91191, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay and IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91191, France<p>Extreme event attribution methodologies have been proposed to estimate the impacts of anthropogenic global warming on observed climatological and meteorological extremes. The classical risk-based approach uses extreme value theory (EVT) to derive changes in the unconditional probabilities of yearly maxima but bears the risk of comparing events with different dynamical mechanisms. The flow analogue method is a conditional attribution method which compares events with similar synoptic-scale dynamics. Here we propose a procedure for estimating both the conditional intensity change and the probability ratio of observed extreme events with this method. We illustrate the procedure on three recent extreme events in Europe and compare the results obtained to the EVT-based approach. We show that the conditional flow analogue method tends to give more significant results for these events, which suggests a stronger climate change signal than the one detected with the unconditional approach.</p>https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/817/2025/wcd-6-817-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | R. Noyelle R. Noyelle D. Faranda D. Faranda D. Faranda Y. Robin M. Vrac P. Yiou Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogue method Weather and Climate Dynamics |
| title | Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogue method |
| title_full | Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogue method |
| title_fullStr | Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogue method |
| title_full_unstemmed | Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogue method |
| title_short | Attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogue method |
| title_sort | attributing the occurrence and intensity of extreme events with the flow analogue method |
| url | https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/817/2025/wcd-6-817-2025.pdf |
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