An asymmetric NARDL approach to the J-curve phenomenon and export competitiveness in India-US trade
This study explores the asymmetric impact of export competitiveness on India’s trade balance with the United States (US) and examines the presence of the J-curve phenomenon from 1980 to 2023. Using the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, impulse response functions, and other eco...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Taylor & Francis Group
2025-12-01
|
| Series: | Cogent Economics & Finance |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2483866 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| Summary: | This study explores the asymmetric impact of export competitiveness on India’s trade balance with the United States (US) and examines the presence of the J-curve phenomenon from 1980 to 2023. Using the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, impulse response functions, and other econometric techniques, the study investigates both short- and long-run dynamics. The results reveal that India’s trade balance with the US is significantly influenced by the competitiveness of its manufactured exports and industrial production capacity. In the short run, a declining real exchange rate has a negative impact on the trade balance, which is consistent with the J-curve effect, while prior trade surpluses contribute to economic stability. In the long run, the analysis shows that a higher dollar-to-rupee exchange rate leads to an improvement in India’s trade balance, whereas a stronger rupee poses risks to sustaining this surplus. The findings also highlight that increased export competitiveness has strengthened India’s trade balance, even in the face of rising US industrial productivity, which typically boosts American exports to India. Conversely, reductions in US industrial output provide India with opportunities to capture a larger market share, further emphasizing the complex and dynamic relationship between export competitiveness, exchange rates, and trade balances. This research underscores the critical role of export competitiveness in shaping India’s trade balance with the US. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 2332-2039 |