Weather resilience of the future Swiss electricity system with very high shares of variable renewable energy sources
To design weather-resilient electricity systems that rely on variable renewable energy sources (VRES), spatially-explicit modeling with several decades of historical weather data is necessary to avoid over-optimization to a single weather year. Here, we apply the electricity system model EXPANSE for...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research: Energy |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/ada77c |
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| author | Collin Killenberger Nik Zielonka Jan-Phillipp Sasse Evelina Trutnevyte |
| author_facet | Collin Killenberger Nik Zielonka Jan-Phillipp Sasse Evelina Trutnevyte |
| author_sort | Collin Killenberger |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | To design weather-resilient electricity systems that rely on variable renewable energy sources (VRES), spatially-explicit modeling with several decades of historical weather data is necessary to avoid over-optimization to a single weather year. Here, we apply the electricity system model EXPANSE for Switzerland to search for resilient cost-optimal and near-optimal system designs in 2035 under various policy scenarios, using data from 25 historical weather years (1995–2019) for electricity demand, solar photovoltaics (PV), wind power, hydropower dams and run-of-river hydropower. In particular, we demonstrate how modeling to generate alternatives (MGA) could be used to define a range of potential system designs for reaching different levels of weather resilience. We find that solar PV capacity of 35 GW in Switzerland in 2035 without any wind power would allow the country to reach its target of 35 TWh yr ^−1 on new renewable electricity in 95% of the 25 historical weather years. Further limiting winter electricity import to a maximum of 5 TWh yr ^−1 as currently envisioned by policy, would require additional 10 GW of wind power to have a comparable level of weather resilience. Within the range of alternative MGA scenarios, such 95% resilience level could also be achieved using 12 GW of solar PV and 18 GW of wind power, 20 GW of solar PV and 13.5 GW of wind power. This methodology could be transferred to other countries and continents that intend to reach high shares of VRES in their electricity systems. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2a3434e3435941e09f321bd8056ec058 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2753-3751 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research: Energy |
| spelling | doaj-art-2a3434e3435941e09f321bd8056ec0582025-01-22T09:54:05ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research: Energy2753-37512025-01-012101500310.1088/2753-3751/ada77cWeather resilience of the future Swiss electricity system with very high shares of variable renewable energy sourcesCollin Killenberger0https://orcid.org/0009-0007-8151-1097Nik Zielonka1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3735-0269Jan-Phillipp Sasse2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6621-1220Evelina Trutnevyte3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1716-6192Renewable Energy Systems, Institute for Environmental Sciences (ISE), Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva , Geneva, Switzerland; Department of Physics, University of Basel , Basel, SwitzerlandRenewable Energy Systems, Institute for Environmental Sciences (ISE), Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva , Geneva, SwitzerlandRenewable Energy Systems, Institute for Environmental Sciences (ISE), Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva , Geneva, SwitzerlandRenewable Energy Systems, Institute for Environmental Sciences (ISE), Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva , Geneva, SwitzerlandTo design weather-resilient electricity systems that rely on variable renewable energy sources (VRES), spatially-explicit modeling with several decades of historical weather data is necessary to avoid over-optimization to a single weather year. Here, we apply the electricity system model EXPANSE for Switzerland to search for resilient cost-optimal and near-optimal system designs in 2035 under various policy scenarios, using data from 25 historical weather years (1995–2019) for electricity demand, solar photovoltaics (PV), wind power, hydropower dams and run-of-river hydropower. In particular, we demonstrate how modeling to generate alternatives (MGA) could be used to define a range of potential system designs for reaching different levels of weather resilience. We find that solar PV capacity of 35 GW in Switzerland in 2035 without any wind power would allow the country to reach its target of 35 TWh yr ^−1 on new renewable electricity in 95% of the 25 historical weather years. Further limiting winter electricity import to a maximum of 5 TWh yr ^−1 as currently envisioned by policy, would require additional 10 GW of wind power to have a comparable level of weather resilience. Within the range of alternative MGA scenarios, such 95% resilience level could also be achieved using 12 GW of solar PV and 18 GW of wind power, 20 GW of solar PV and 13.5 GW of wind power. This methodology could be transferred to other countries and continents that intend to reach high shares of VRES in their electricity systems.https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/ada77cvariable renewable energy sourcesweather variabilityresiliencemodeling to generate alternativeselectricity system modelingspatially-explicit analysis |
| spellingShingle | Collin Killenberger Nik Zielonka Jan-Phillipp Sasse Evelina Trutnevyte Weather resilience of the future Swiss electricity system with very high shares of variable renewable energy sources Environmental Research: Energy variable renewable energy sources weather variability resilience modeling to generate alternatives electricity system modeling spatially-explicit analysis |
| title | Weather resilience of the future Swiss electricity system with very high shares of variable renewable energy sources |
| title_full | Weather resilience of the future Swiss electricity system with very high shares of variable renewable energy sources |
| title_fullStr | Weather resilience of the future Swiss electricity system with very high shares of variable renewable energy sources |
| title_full_unstemmed | Weather resilience of the future Swiss electricity system with very high shares of variable renewable energy sources |
| title_short | Weather resilience of the future Swiss electricity system with very high shares of variable renewable energy sources |
| title_sort | weather resilience of the future swiss electricity system with very high shares of variable renewable energy sources |
| topic | variable renewable energy sources weather variability resilience modeling to generate alternatives electricity system modeling spatially-explicit analysis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/ada77c |
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