Production Capacity Prediction for Tight Gas Reservoirs Based on ADASVRLGBM

Accurate production capacity prediction plays a crucial role in formulating efficient development plans for tight gas reservoirs. Due to the complexity of tight gas reservoir characteristics and significant reservoir heterogeneity, traditional prediction methods often fail to meet the accuracy and s...

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Main Authors: MENG Sihai, ZHANG Zhansong, GUO Jianhong, HAN Zihao, ZENG Weijie, LYU Hengyang
Format: Article
Language:zho
Published: Editorial Office of Well Logging Technology 2025-04-01
Series:Cejing jishu
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Online Access:https://www.cnpcwlt.com/en/#/digest?ArticleID=5727
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author MENG Sihai
ZHANG Zhansong
GUO Jianhong
HAN Zihao
ZENG Weijie
LYU Hengyang
author_facet MENG Sihai
ZHANG Zhansong
GUO Jianhong
HAN Zihao
ZENG Weijie
LYU Hengyang
author_sort MENG Sihai
collection DOAJ
description Accurate production capacity prediction plays a crucial role in formulating efficient development plans for tight gas reservoirs. Due to the complexity of tight gas reservoir characteristics and significant reservoir heterogeneity, traditional prediction methods often fail to meet the accuracy and stability requirements in practical applications. This paper proposes an innovative production capacity prediction model, ADASVRLGBM, which integrates AdaBoost (Adaptive Boosting), SVR (Support Vector Regression), and LGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Machine) algorithms. The model utilizes GridSearchCV (Grid Search Cross-Validation) to fine-tune the hyperparameters of each algorithm and applies a genetic algorithm to optimize the weight combinations of the sub-models. The integrated model systematically analyzes the correlation of factors influencing tight gas production, extracts key feature parameters, and builds a predictive model with gas well production capacity as the output label. The study demonstrates that the integrated model significantly outperforms single algorithms in terms of prediction accuracy, achieving an average agreement rate of 93.33% after training. Furthermore, the paper provides an in-depth discussion of the contributions of different sub-models to overall prediction performance and highlights their advantages in handling complex data. The findings offer theoretical and practical support for the efficient development of tight gas reservoirs and valuable insights for extending the application of similar models.
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institution OA Journals
issn 1004-1338
language zho
publishDate 2025-04-01
publisher Editorial Office of Well Logging Technology
record_format Article
series Cejing jishu
spelling doaj-art-2986db07b9894ddd9489bb1e08c01c192025-08-20T02:25:47ZzhoEditorial Office of Well Logging TechnologyCejing jishu1004-13382025-04-0149223524310.16489/j.issn.1004-1338.2025.02.0111004-1338(2025)02-0235-09Production Capacity Prediction for Tight Gas Reservoirs Based on ADASVRLGBMMENG Sihai0ZHANG Zhansong1GUO Jianhong2HAN Zihao3ZENG Weijie4LYU Hengyang5Key Laboratory of Exploration Technologies for Oil and Gas Resources, Ministry of Education, Yangtze University, Wuhan, Hubei 430100, ChinaKey Laboratory of Exploration Technologies for Oil and Gas Resources, Ministry of Education, Yangtze University, Wuhan, Hubei 430100, ChinaKey Laboratory of Exploration Technologies for Oil and Gas Resources, Ministry of Education, Yangtze University, Wuhan, Hubei 430100, ChinaKey Laboratory of Exploration Technologies for Oil and Gas Resources, Ministry of Education, Yangtze University, Wuhan, Hubei 430100, ChinaKey Laboratory of Exploration Technologies for Oil and Gas Resources, Ministry of Education, Yangtze University, Wuhan, Hubei 430100, ChinaKey Laboratory of Exploration Technologies for Oil and Gas Resources, Ministry of Education, Yangtze University, Wuhan, Hubei 430100, ChinaAccurate production capacity prediction plays a crucial role in formulating efficient development plans for tight gas reservoirs. Due to the complexity of tight gas reservoir characteristics and significant reservoir heterogeneity, traditional prediction methods often fail to meet the accuracy and stability requirements in practical applications. This paper proposes an innovative production capacity prediction model, ADASVRLGBM, which integrates AdaBoost (Adaptive Boosting), SVR (Support Vector Regression), and LGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Machine) algorithms. The model utilizes GridSearchCV (Grid Search Cross-Validation) to fine-tune the hyperparameters of each algorithm and applies a genetic algorithm to optimize the weight combinations of the sub-models. The integrated model systematically analyzes the correlation of factors influencing tight gas production, extracts key feature parameters, and builds a predictive model with gas well production capacity as the output label. The study demonstrates that the integrated model significantly outperforms single algorithms in terms of prediction accuracy, achieving an average agreement rate of 93.33% after training. Furthermore, the paper provides an in-depth discussion of the contributions of different sub-models to overall prediction performance and highlights their advantages in handling complex data. The findings offer theoretical and practical support for the efficient development of tight gas reservoirs and valuable insights for extending the application of similar models.https://www.cnpcwlt.com/en/#/digest?ArticleID=5727tight gas reservoirproduction capacity predictionensemble algorithmgenetic algorithmmachine learning
spellingShingle MENG Sihai
ZHANG Zhansong
GUO Jianhong
HAN Zihao
ZENG Weijie
LYU Hengyang
Production Capacity Prediction for Tight Gas Reservoirs Based on ADASVRLGBM
Cejing jishu
tight gas reservoir
production capacity prediction
ensemble algorithm
genetic algorithm
machine learning
title Production Capacity Prediction for Tight Gas Reservoirs Based on ADASVRLGBM
title_full Production Capacity Prediction for Tight Gas Reservoirs Based on ADASVRLGBM
title_fullStr Production Capacity Prediction for Tight Gas Reservoirs Based on ADASVRLGBM
title_full_unstemmed Production Capacity Prediction for Tight Gas Reservoirs Based on ADASVRLGBM
title_short Production Capacity Prediction for Tight Gas Reservoirs Based on ADASVRLGBM
title_sort production capacity prediction for tight gas reservoirs based on adasvrlgbm
topic tight gas reservoir
production capacity prediction
ensemble algorithm
genetic algorithm
machine learning
url https://www.cnpcwlt.com/en/#/digest?ArticleID=5727
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AT zhangzhansong productioncapacitypredictionfortightgasreservoirsbasedonadasvrlgbm
AT guojianhong productioncapacitypredictionfortightgasreservoirsbasedonadasvrlgbm
AT hanzihao productioncapacitypredictionfortightgasreservoirsbasedonadasvrlgbm
AT zengweijie productioncapacitypredictionfortightgasreservoirsbasedonadasvrlgbm
AT lyuhengyang productioncapacitypredictionfortightgasreservoirsbasedonadasvrlgbm