Projection of Actual Evapotranspiration Changes in the Western Sub-basins of the Lake Urmia Basin Based on Thornthwaite Water Balance Model and Budyko Framework
The present study aimed to project the effects of climate change (under RCP8.5 scenario) on actual evapotranspiration (ET) in sub-basins of Nazlou Chay, Rozeh Chay, Shahr Chay, and Barandouz Chay in the west of the Lake Urmia basin, based on CORDEX data; precipitation and the temperature outputs of...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
| Published: |
Iranian Water Resources Association
2025-02-01
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| Series: | تحقیقات منابع آب ایران |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.iwrr.ir/article_213909_acb255b755057e241741aaa4eacc6133.pdf |
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| Summary: | The present study aimed to project the effects of climate change (under RCP8.5 scenario) on actual evapotranspiration (ET) in sub-basins of Nazlou Chay, Rozeh Chay, Shahr Chay, and Barandouz Chay in the west of the Lake Urmia basin, based on CORDEX data; precipitation and the temperature outputs of the two atmospheric general circulation models NOAA-GFDL-GFDL-ESM2M and ICHEC-EC-EARTH downscaled by RCA4 model. After comparing with observational data, historical and future CORDEX temperature and precipitation data were bias-corrected by linear scaling method and used as input for the Thornthwaite water balance model. Then, the changes of ET in the three periods of near (2011-2040), middle (2041-2070), and far future (2071-2100) compared to the historical period (1976-2005) were evaluated using the Budyko method by separating the shifts caused by the regime and partitioning. The results showed that, on an annual scale, the changes in ET in Nazlou Chay (-1–5.1 mm) and Rozeh Chay (-3.8–10 mm) sub-basins are not significant in any of the future periods. In Shahr Chay (2.4–15.3 mm) and Barandouz Chay (1.2–8.8 mm) sub-basins the significant increase in ET is limited to the middle or far future periods. In all sub-basins, the regime shifts are more severe than the partitioning shifts. Also, in all sub-basins the regime shifts are often positive and the partitioning shifts are often negative. However, the total shifts are different for different sub-basins and different future periods. In general, when the regime shifts are more than twice the partitioning shifts, the total changes in ET are significant. |
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| ISSN: | 1735-2347 |