Narrowing the gap between machine learning scoring functions and free energy perturbation using augmented data

Abstract Machine learning offers great promise for fast and accurate binding affinity predictions. However, current models lack robust evaluation and fail on tasks encountered in (hit-to-) lead optimisation, such as ranking the binding affinity of a congeneric series of ligands, thereby limiting the...

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Main Authors: Ísak Valsson, Matthew T. Warren, Charlotte M. Deane, Aniket Magarkar, Garrett M. Morris, Philip C. Biggin
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-02-01
Series:Communications Chemistry
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s42004-025-01428-y
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author Ísak Valsson
Matthew T. Warren
Charlotte M. Deane
Aniket Magarkar
Garrett M. Morris
Philip C. Biggin
author_facet Ísak Valsson
Matthew T. Warren
Charlotte M. Deane
Aniket Magarkar
Garrett M. Morris
Philip C. Biggin
author_sort Ísak Valsson
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Machine learning offers great promise for fast and accurate binding affinity predictions. However, current models lack robust evaluation and fail on tasks encountered in (hit-to-) lead optimisation, such as ranking the binding affinity of a congeneric series of ligands, thereby limiting their application in drug discovery. Here, we address these issues by first introducing a novel attention-based graph neural network model called AEV-PLIG (atomic environment vector–protein ligand interaction graph). Second, we introduce a new and more realistic out-of-distribution test set called the OOD Test. We benchmark our model on this set, CASF-2016, and a test set used for free energy perturbation (FEP) calculations, that not only highlights the competitive performance of AEV-PLIG, but provides a realistic assessment of machine learning models with rigorous physics-based approaches. Moreover, we demonstrate how leveraging augmented data (generated using template-based modelling or molecular docking) can significantly improve binding affinity prediction correlation and ranking on the FEP benchmark (weighted mean PCC and Kendall’s τ increases from 0.41 and 0.26 to 0.59 and 0.42). These strategies together are closing the performance gap with FEP calculations (FEP+ achieves weighted mean PCC and Kendall’s τ of 0.68 and 0.49 on the FEP benchmark) while being  ~400,000 times faster.
format Article
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institution Kabale University
issn 2399-3669
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spelling doaj-art-29105d7176d647a788aa5317840533482025-02-09T12:16:22ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Chemistry2399-36692025-02-018111210.1038/s42004-025-01428-yNarrowing the gap between machine learning scoring functions and free energy perturbation using augmented dataÍsak Valsson0Matthew T. Warren1Charlotte M. Deane2Aniket Magarkar3Garrett M. Morris4Philip C. Biggin5Oxford Protein Informatics Group, Department of Statistics, University of OxfordStructural Bioinformatics and Computational Biochemistry, Department of Biochemistry, University of OxfordOxford Protein Informatics Group, Department of Statistics, University of OxfordBoehringer Ingelheim Pharma GmbH & Co. KGOxford Protein Informatics Group, Department of Statistics, University of OxfordStructural Bioinformatics and Computational Biochemistry, Department of Biochemistry, University of OxfordAbstract Machine learning offers great promise for fast and accurate binding affinity predictions. However, current models lack robust evaluation and fail on tasks encountered in (hit-to-) lead optimisation, such as ranking the binding affinity of a congeneric series of ligands, thereby limiting their application in drug discovery. Here, we address these issues by first introducing a novel attention-based graph neural network model called AEV-PLIG (atomic environment vector–protein ligand interaction graph). Second, we introduce a new and more realistic out-of-distribution test set called the OOD Test. We benchmark our model on this set, CASF-2016, and a test set used for free energy perturbation (FEP) calculations, that not only highlights the competitive performance of AEV-PLIG, but provides a realistic assessment of machine learning models with rigorous physics-based approaches. Moreover, we demonstrate how leveraging augmented data (generated using template-based modelling or molecular docking) can significantly improve binding affinity prediction correlation and ranking on the FEP benchmark (weighted mean PCC and Kendall’s τ increases from 0.41 and 0.26 to 0.59 and 0.42). These strategies together are closing the performance gap with FEP calculations (FEP+ achieves weighted mean PCC and Kendall’s τ of 0.68 and 0.49 on the FEP benchmark) while being  ~400,000 times faster.https://doi.org/10.1038/s42004-025-01428-y
spellingShingle Ísak Valsson
Matthew T. Warren
Charlotte M. Deane
Aniket Magarkar
Garrett M. Morris
Philip C. Biggin
Narrowing the gap between machine learning scoring functions and free energy perturbation using augmented data
Communications Chemistry
title Narrowing the gap between machine learning scoring functions and free energy perturbation using augmented data
title_full Narrowing the gap between machine learning scoring functions and free energy perturbation using augmented data
title_fullStr Narrowing the gap between machine learning scoring functions and free energy perturbation using augmented data
title_full_unstemmed Narrowing the gap between machine learning scoring functions and free energy perturbation using augmented data
title_short Narrowing the gap between machine learning scoring functions and free energy perturbation using augmented data
title_sort narrowing the gap between machine learning scoring functions and free energy perturbation using augmented data
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s42004-025-01428-y
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