A mathematical modeling approach to measure the probability of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan
Introduction: Since 2010, the number of new HIV-1 cases has declined by 30% globally, however, in few countries, such as Pakistan, the cases have continued to increase, where the country witnessed a 57% increase in the number of new infections between 2010 and 2020. The HIV-1 epidemic in Pakistan i...
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The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries
2021-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Infection in Developing Countries |
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| Online Access: | https://jidc.org/index.php/journal/article/view/12664 |
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| author | Syed Rizwan-ul-Hasan Fatima Farrukh Shakil Ahmed Syed Hani Abidi |
| author_facet | Syed Rizwan-ul-Hasan Fatima Farrukh Shakil Ahmed Syed Hani Abidi |
| author_sort | Syed Rizwan-ul-Hasan |
| collection | DOAJ |
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Introduction: Since 2010, the number of new HIV-1 cases has declined by 30% globally, however, in few countries, such as Pakistan, the cases have continued to increase, where the country witnessed a 57% increase in the number of new infections between 2010 and 2020. The HIV-1 epidemic in Pakistan is concentrated in certain high-risk groups, however, it is unknown which high-risk group has a higher likelihood of transmitting HIV-1 infections to vulnerable populations. This study aimed to apply mathematical probabilistic modeling to estimate the probability of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan.
Methodology: MATLAB software was used to conduct probabilistic modeling (chance estimation) of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan, and also draw a comparison between Pakistan and different high- and low- HIV-1 prevalence countries.
Results: Our results revealed that Pakistan overall had the lowest probability of HIV-1 transmission as compared to other countries included in this study; however, within Pakistan, certain high-risk groups such as people who inject drugs (PWID) and the region of Larkana exhibited a high probability of HIV-1 transmissions.
Conclusions: Our study suggests that the concentrated HIV-1 epidemic in Pakistan has a high likelihood of expansion from certain high-risk groups to other vulnerable populations. Further studies to understand the socio-epidemiological factors driving the expansion of the HIV-1 epidemic within the country will guide specific HIV-1 intervention strategies to control the spread of HIV-1 from high-risk to other vulnerable populations.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-28799af32d634e2c9b6f0bca9308a246 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1972-2680 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-08-01 |
| publisher | The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Infection in Developing Countries |
| spelling | doaj-art-28799af32d634e2c9b6f0bca9308a2462025-08-20T02:16:06ZengThe Journal of Infection in Developing CountriesJournal of Infection in Developing Countries1972-26802021-08-01150810.3855/jidc.12664A mathematical modeling approach to measure the probability of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of PakistanSyed Rizwan-ul-Hasan0Fatima Farrukh1Shakil Ahmed2Syed Hani Abidi3Department of Computer Science, DHA Suffa University, Karachi, PakistanMedical College, Aga Khan University, Karachi, PakistanDepartment of Computer Engineering, Sir Syed University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, PakistanDepartment of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan Introduction: Since 2010, the number of new HIV-1 cases has declined by 30% globally, however, in few countries, such as Pakistan, the cases have continued to increase, where the country witnessed a 57% increase in the number of new infections between 2010 and 2020. The HIV-1 epidemic in Pakistan is concentrated in certain high-risk groups, however, it is unknown which high-risk group has a higher likelihood of transmitting HIV-1 infections to vulnerable populations. This study aimed to apply mathematical probabilistic modeling to estimate the probability of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan. Methodology: MATLAB software was used to conduct probabilistic modeling (chance estimation) of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan, and also draw a comparison between Pakistan and different high- and low- HIV-1 prevalence countries. Results: Our results revealed that Pakistan overall had the lowest probability of HIV-1 transmission as compared to other countries included in this study; however, within Pakistan, certain high-risk groups such as people who inject drugs (PWID) and the region of Larkana exhibited a high probability of HIV-1 transmissions. Conclusions: Our study suggests that the concentrated HIV-1 epidemic in Pakistan has a high likelihood of expansion from certain high-risk groups to other vulnerable populations. Further studies to understand the socio-epidemiological factors driving the expansion of the HIV-1 epidemic within the country will guide specific HIV-1 intervention strategies to control the spread of HIV-1 from high-risk to other vulnerable populations. https://jidc.org/index.php/journal/article/view/12664HIV-1Probabilistic modelinghigh-risk groupsPakistan |
| spellingShingle | Syed Rizwan-ul-Hasan Fatima Farrukh Shakil Ahmed Syed Hani Abidi A mathematical modeling approach to measure the probability of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan Journal of Infection in Developing Countries HIV-1 Probabilistic modeling high-risk groups Pakistan |
| title | A mathematical modeling approach to measure the probability of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan |
| title_full | A mathematical modeling approach to measure the probability of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan |
| title_fullStr | A mathematical modeling approach to measure the probability of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan |
| title_full_unstemmed | A mathematical modeling approach to measure the probability of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan |
| title_short | A mathematical modeling approach to measure the probability of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan |
| title_sort | mathematical modeling approach to measure the probability of hiv 1 transmission for different high risk groups of pakistan |
| topic | HIV-1 Probabilistic modeling high-risk groups Pakistan |
| url | https://jidc.org/index.php/journal/article/view/12664 |
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