Contrasting historical trends of atmospheric rivers in the Northern Hemisphere
Abstract Previous modeling studies have indicated that Atmospheric rivers (ARs) will become more frequent in the warming climate. However, whether we have experienced more ARs during historical period is less studied. Here, we show that winter AR frequency has significantly increased over the mid-la...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-08-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01191-w |
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| author | Mengxin Pan Shineng Hu Benjamin F. Zaitchik William K. Pan |
| author_facet | Mengxin Pan Shineng Hu Benjamin F. Zaitchik William K. Pan |
| author_sort | Mengxin Pan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Previous modeling studies have indicated that Atmospheric rivers (ARs) will become more frequent in the warming climate. However, whether we have experienced more ARs during historical period is less studied. Here, we show that winter AR frequency has significantly increased over the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere from 1950—2022. Using station-based observations, we confirm that ARs have driven coherent long-term trends in both total and extreme precipitation over land. The warming-induced rise in atmospheric moisture alone accounts for an AR frequency increase of ~0.6–0.8% per decade. AR trends exhibit meridional dipolar patterns over western North America and Europe, governed by positive trends of the Pacific-North America Pattern and North Atlantic Oscillation. The “Pineapple Express” ARs have been suppressed, declining of AR landfalling over the Pacific Northwest. Through atmospheric model analyses, we demonstrate that observed sea surface temperature changes dominate Atlantic AR trends, while exerting minor effects on Pacific AR trends. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2863c8a928f14a08bb2d9604c660c963 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-2863c8a928f14a08bb2d9604c660c9632025-08-24T11:16:01ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-08-018111010.1038/s41612-025-01191-wContrasting historical trends of atmospheric rivers in the Northern HemisphereMengxin Pan0Shineng Hu1Benjamin F. Zaitchik2William K. Pan3Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke UniversityNicholas School of the Environment, Duke UniversityDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, The Johns Hopkins UniversityNicholas School of the Environment, Duke UniversityAbstract Previous modeling studies have indicated that Atmospheric rivers (ARs) will become more frequent in the warming climate. However, whether we have experienced more ARs during historical period is less studied. Here, we show that winter AR frequency has significantly increased over the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere from 1950—2022. Using station-based observations, we confirm that ARs have driven coherent long-term trends in both total and extreme precipitation over land. The warming-induced rise in atmospheric moisture alone accounts for an AR frequency increase of ~0.6–0.8% per decade. AR trends exhibit meridional dipolar patterns over western North America and Europe, governed by positive trends of the Pacific-North America Pattern and North Atlantic Oscillation. The “Pineapple Express” ARs have been suppressed, declining of AR landfalling over the Pacific Northwest. Through atmospheric model analyses, we demonstrate that observed sea surface temperature changes dominate Atlantic AR trends, while exerting minor effects on Pacific AR trends.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01191-w |
| spellingShingle | Mengxin Pan Shineng Hu Benjamin F. Zaitchik William K. Pan Contrasting historical trends of atmospheric rivers in the Northern Hemisphere npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Contrasting historical trends of atmospheric rivers in the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_full | Contrasting historical trends of atmospheric rivers in the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_fullStr | Contrasting historical trends of atmospheric rivers in the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_full_unstemmed | Contrasting historical trends of atmospheric rivers in the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_short | Contrasting historical trends of atmospheric rivers in the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_sort | contrasting historical trends of atmospheric rivers in the northern hemisphere |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01191-w |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mengxinpan contrastinghistoricaltrendsofatmosphericriversinthenorthernhemisphere AT shinenghu contrastinghistoricaltrendsofatmosphericriversinthenorthernhemisphere AT benjaminfzaitchik contrastinghistoricaltrendsofatmosphericriversinthenorthernhemisphere AT williamkpan contrastinghistoricaltrendsofatmosphericriversinthenorthernhemisphere |