Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse).
The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a highly invasive vector species. It is a proven vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, with the potential to host a further 24 arboviruses. It has recently expanded its geographical range, threatening many countries in the Middle East, Mediterranean...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2016-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149282 |
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| author | Kamil Erguler Stephanie E Smith-Unna Joanna Waldock Yiannis Proestos George K Christophides Jos Lelieveld Paul E Parham |
| author_facet | Kamil Erguler Stephanie E Smith-Unna Joanna Waldock Yiannis Proestos George K Christophides Jos Lelieveld Paul E Parham |
| author_sort | Kamil Erguler |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a highly invasive vector species. It is a proven vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, with the potential to host a further 24 arboviruses. It has recently expanded its geographical range, threatening many countries in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe and North America. Here, we investigate the theoretical limitations of its range expansion by developing an environmentally-driven mathematical model of its population dynamics. We focus on the temperate strain of Ae. albopictus and compile a comprehensive literature-based database of physiological parameters. As a novel approach, we link its population dynamics to globally-available environmental datasets by performing inference on all parameters. We adopt a Bayesian approach using experimental data as prior knowledge and the surveillance dataset of Emilia-Romagna, Italy, as evidence. The model accounts for temperature, precipitation, human population density and photoperiod as the main environmental drivers, and, in addition, incorporates the mechanism of diapause and a simple breeding site model. The model demonstrates high predictive skill over the reference region and beyond, confirming most of the current reports of vector presence in Europe. One of the main hypotheses derived from the model is the survival of Ae. albopictus populations through harsh winter conditions. The model, constrained by the environmental datasets, requires that either diapausing eggs or adult vectors have increased cold resistance. The model also suggests that temperature and photoperiod control diapause initiation and termination differentially. We demonstrate that it is possible to account for unobserved properties and constraints, such as differences between laboratory and field conditions, to derive reliable inferences on the environmental dependence of Ae. albopictus populations. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-285e491e873e4ff9978b95697954f076 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-285e491e873e4ff9978b95697954f0762025-08-20T02:34:12ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032016-01-01112e014928210.1371/journal.pone.0149282Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse).Kamil ErgulerStephanie E Smith-UnnaJoanna WaldockYiannis ProestosGeorge K ChristophidesJos LelieveldPaul E ParhamThe Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a highly invasive vector species. It is a proven vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, with the potential to host a further 24 arboviruses. It has recently expanded its geographical range, threatening many countries in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe and North America. Here, we investigate the theoretical limitations of its range expansion by developing an environmentally-driven mathematical model of its population dynamics. We focus on the temperate strain of Ae. albopictus and compile a comprehensive literature-based database of physiological parameters. As a novel approach, we link its population dynamics to globally-available environmental datasets by performing inference on all parameters. We adopt a Bayesian approach using experimental data as prior knowledge and the surveillance dataset of Emilia-Romagna, Italy, as evidence. The model accounts for temperature, precipitation, human population density and photoperiod as the main environmental drivers, and, in addition, incorporates the mechanism of diapause and a simple breeding site model. The model demonstrates high predictive skill over the reference region and beyond, confirming most of the current reports of vector presence in Europe. One of the main hypotheses derived from the model is the survival of Ae. albopictus populations through harsh winter conditions. The model, constrained by the environmental datasets, requires that either diapausing eggs or adult vectors have increased cold resistance. The model also suggests that temperature and photoperiod control diapause initiation and termination differentially. We demonstrate that it is possible to account for unobserved properties and constraints, such as differences between laboratory and field conditions, to derive reliable inferences on the environmental dependence of Ae. albopictus populations.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149282 |
| spellingShingle | Kamil Erguler Stephanie E Smith-Unna Joanna Waldock Yiannis Proestos George K Christophides Jos Lelieveld Paul E Parham Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse). PLoS ONE |
| title | Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse). |
| title_full | Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse). |
| title_fullStr | Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse). |
| title_full_unstemmed | Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse). |
| title_short | Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse). |
| title_sort | large scale modelling of the environmentally driven population dynamics of temperate aedes albopictus skuse |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149282 |
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