Price Volatility Spillovers in Energy Supply Chains: Empirical Evidence from China

Based on the theoretical framework of Multivariate Stochastic Volatility (MSV), this paper combines the Dynamic Generalized Correlation (DGC) model with the t-distribution, establishes the DGC-t-MSV model, and employs the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on the Bayesian principle for...

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Main Authors: Lei Wang, Yu Sun, Jining Wang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-06-01
Series:Energies
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/12/3204
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author Lei Wang
Yu Sun
Jining Wang
author_facet Lei Wang
Yu Sun
Jining Wang
author_sort Lei Wang
collection DOAJ
description Based on the theoretical framework of Multivariate Stochastic Volatility (MSV), this paper combines the Dynamic Generalized Correlation (DGC) model with the t-distribution, establishes the DGC-t-MSV model, and employs the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on the Bayesian principle for efficient estimation to investigate the price volatility spillover effects in China’s energy supply chains. The results of this study indicate the following: (1) The upstream crude oil spot price has a positive spillover effect on the midstream freight price. The downstream diesel market price, 92 gasoline market price, and 95 gasoline market price all exert positive volatility spillovers on the midstream crude oil freight price. (2) The volatility spillover effect between the upstream power coal price and the midstream coal freight price exhibits unidirectionality, and the volatility is transmitted from the power coal price to the coal freight price. (3) The upstream natural gas price and the midstream liquefied natural gas market price display asymmetric characteristics. Among them, the upstream natural gas price has a unidirectional and more pronounced positive volatility spillover effect on the midstream liquefied natural gas market price.
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institution Kabale University
issn 1996-1073
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publishDate 2025-06-01
publisher MDPI AG
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series Energies
spelling doaj-art-28340f652396439587ed40fa467ae22a2025-08-20T03:24:37ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732025-06-011812320410.3390/en18123204Price Volatility Spillovers in Energy Supply Chains: Empirical Evidence from ChinaLei Wang0Yu Sun1Jining Wang2School of Economics and Management, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, ChinaSchool of Economics and Management, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, ChinaSchool of Economics and Management, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, ChinaBased on the theoretical framework of Multivariate Stochastic Volatility (MSV), this paper combines the Dynamic Generalized Correlation (DGC) model with the t-distribution, establishes the DGC-t-MSV model, and employs the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on the Bayesian principle for efficient estimation to investigate the price volatility spillover effects in China’s energy supply chains. The results of this study indicate the following: (1) The upstream crude oil spot price has a positive spillover effect on the midstream freight price. The downstream diesel market price, 92 gasoline market price, and 95 gasoline market price all exert positive volatility spillovers on the midstream crude oil freight price. (2) The volatility spillover effect between the upstream power coal price and the midstream coal freight price exhibits unidirectionality, and the volatility is transmitted from the power coal price to the coal freight price. (3) The upstream natural gas price and the midstream liquefied natural gas market price display asymmetric characteristics. Among them, the upstream natural gas price has a unidirectional and more pronounced positive volatility spillover effect on the midstream liquefied natural gas market price.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/12/3204energy supply chainsenergy pricevolatility spillover effectDGC-t-MSV model
spellingShingle Lei Wang
Yu Sun
Jining Wang
Price Volatility Spillovers in Energy Supply Chains: Empirical Evidence from China
Energies
energy supply chains
energy price
volatility spillover effect
DGC-t-MSV model
title Price Volatility Spillovers in Energy Supply Chains: Empirical Evidence from China
title_full Price Volatility Spillovers in Energy Supply Chains: Empirical Evidence from China
title_fullStr Price Volatility Spillovers in Energy Supply Chains: Empirical Evidence from China
title_full_unstemmed Price Volatility Spillovers in Energy Supply Chains: Empirical Evidence from China
title_short Price Volatility Spillovers in Energy Supply Chains: Empirical Evidence from China
title_sort price volatility spillovers in energy supply chains empirical evidence from china
topic energy supply chains
energy price
volatility spillover effect
DGC-t-MSV model
url https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/12/3204
work_keys_str_mv AT leiwang pricevolatilityspilloversinenergysupplychainsempiricalevidencefromchina
AT yusun pricevolatilityspilloversinenergysupplychainsempiricalevidencefromchina
AT jiningwang pricevolatilityspilloversinenergysupplychainsempiricalevidencefromchina