An ex-ante evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on Ecuador’s production network
Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic was categorized as a severe global exogenous shock that affected aggregate supply and led to demand distortions. In the present study, we designed an extended Leontief model with foreign trade and gross added value to evaluate the ex-ante effects of the crisis on Ecuad...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SpringerOpen
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Journal of Economic Structures |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-025-00356-3 |
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| author | José Ramírez-Álvarez Josselyn Ramos Kevin Gordón |
| author_facet | José Ramírez-Álvarez Josselyn Ramos Kevin Gordón |
| author_sort | José Ramírez-Álvarez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic was categorized as a severe global exogenous shock that affected aggregate supply and led to demand distortions. In the present study, we designed an extended Leontief model with foreign trade and gross added value to evaluate the ex-ante effects of the crisis on Ecuador’s production system. The magnitude of the supply and demand shocks caused by the pandemic was compiled through a meta-analysis derived from governmental and non-governmental sources. The results show that the pandemic would generate an average variation in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2020 of − 7.4%. The most affected sectors would be the manufacture of basic metals, transport equipment, plastic products, and domestic services. In contrast, the most beneficial sectors would be the grain mill products, coffee, bakery, and noodles. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-27fabe034efc4c778310e5665be6248c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2193-2409 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Economic Structures |
| spelling | doaj-art-27fabe034efc4c778310e5665be6248c2025-08-20T04:01:43ZengSpringerOpenJournal of Economic Structures2193-24092025-07-0114112410.1186/s40008-025-00356-3An ex-ante evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on Ecuador’s production networkJosé Ramírez-Álvarez0Josselyn Ramos1Kevin Gordón2Departamento de Economía Cuantitativa, Escuela Politécnica NacionalDepartamento de Economía Cuantitativa, Escuela Politécnica NacionalDepartamento de Economía Cuantitativa, Escuela Politécnica NacionalAbstract The COVID-19 pandemic was categorized as a severe global exogenous shock that affected aggregate supply and led to demand distortions. In the present study, we designed an extended Leontief model with foreign trade and gross added value to evaluate the ex-ante effects of the crisis on Ecuador’s production system. The magnitude of the supply and demand shocks caused by the pandemic was compiled through a meta-analysis derived from governmental and non-governmental sources. The results show that the pandemic would generate an average variation in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2020 of − 7.4%. The most affected sectors would be the manufacture of basic metals, transport equipment, plastic products, and domestic services. In contrast, the most beneficial sectors would be the grain mill products, coffee, bakery, and noodles.https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-025-00356-3COVID-19Input–output modelProduction networkEx-ante evaluationMeta-analysis |
| spellingShingle | José Ramírez-Álvarez Josselyn Ramos Kevin Gordón An ex-ante evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on Ecuador’s production network Journal of Economic Structures COVID-19 Input–output model Production network Ex-ante evaluation Meta-analysis |
| title | An ex-ante evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on Ecuador’s production network |
| title_full | An ex-ante evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on Ecuador’s production network |
| title_fullStr | An ex-ante evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on Ecuador’s production network |
| title_full_unstemmed | An ex-ante evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on Ecuador’s production network |
| title_short | An ex-ante evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on Ecuador’s production network |
| title_sort | ex ante evaluation of the impact of covid 19 on ecuador s production network |
| topic | COVID-19 Input–output model Production network Ex-ante evaluation Meta-analysis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-025-00356-3 |
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