The three stages of religious decline around the world

Abstract Religiosity tends to decline across generations. However, religious decline is more pronounced in some countries and the diminishing aspects of religion vary by context. To explain such variation, we extend the general secular transition model, which proposes that countries undergo a simila...

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Main Authors: Jörg Stolz, Nan Dirk de Graaf, Conrad Hackett, Jean-Philippe Antonietti
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-08-01
Series:Nature Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62452-z
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author Jörg Stolz
Nan Dirk de Graaf
Conrad Hackett
Jean-Philippe Antonietti
author_facet Jörg Stolz
Nan Dirk de Graaf
Conrad Hackett
Jean-Philippe Antonietti
author_sort Jörg Stolz
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Religiosity tends to decline across generations. However, religious decline is more pronounced in some countries and the diminishing aspects of religion vary by context. To explain such variation, we extend the general secular transition model, which proposes that countries undergo a similar process of secularization beginning at different points in time. We explain that secular transition happens in three steps: first, public ritual participation declines; second, the importance of religion to individuals declines; and third, people shed religious affiliation. We test this model using datasets from surveys in 111 countries (Pew Research Center), 58 countries (World Values Survey and European Values Study (WVS/EVS)), and a subset of 17 countries measured in at least five WVS/EVS waves. We show the model fits countries with Christian, Muslim, Hindu, and Buddhist pluralities. While Eastern post-Soviet countries deviate from this pattern, traditionally Muslim countries appear to follow its early stages. However, we recommend caution in interpreting longitudinal claims, due to limited data.
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spelling doaj-art-27f0e7c2d50946f8bfda972de03bec822025-08-24T11:38:45ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-08-0116111710.1038/s41467-025-62452-zThe three stages of religious decline around the worldJörg Stolz0Nan Dirk de Graaf1Conrad Hackett2Jean-Philippe Antonietti3Institute for the Social Sciences of Religions, Faculty of Theology and Religious Studies, University of LausanneNuffield College, University of OxfordPew Research CenterInstitute of Psychology, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, University of LausanneAbstract Religiosity tends to decline across generations. However, religious decline is more pronounced in some countries and the diminishing aspects of religion vary by context. To explain such variation, we extend the general secular transition model, which proposes that countries undergo a similar process of secularization beginning at different points in time. We explain that secular transition happens in three steps: first, public ritual participation declines; second, the importance of religion to individuals declines; and third, people shed religious affiliation. We test this model using datasets from surveys in 111 countries (Pew Research Center), 58 countries (World Values Survey and European Values Study (WVS/EVS)), and a subset of 17 countries measured in at least five WVS/EVS waves. We show the model fits countries with Christian, Muslim, Hindu, and Buddhist pluralities. While Eastern post-Soviet countries deviate from this pattern, traditionally Muslim countries appear to follow its early stages. However, we recommend caution in interpreting longitudinal claims, due to limited data.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62452-z
spellingShingle Jörg Stolz
Nan Dirk de Graaf
Conrad Hackett
Jean-Philippe Antonietti
The three stages of religious decline around the world
Nature Communications
title The three stages of religious decline around the world
title_full The three stages of religious decline around the world
title_fullStr The three stages of religious decline around the world
title_full_unstemmed The three stages of religious decline around the world
title_short The three stages of religious decline around the world
title_sort three stages of religious decline around the world
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62452-z
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