The three stages of religious decline around the world
Abstract Religiosity tends to decline across generations. However, religious decline is more pronounced in some countries and the diminishing aspects of religion vary by context. To explain such variation, we extend the general secular transition model, which proposes that countries undergo a simila...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62452-z |
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| _version_ | 1849226121191620608 |
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| author | Jörg Stolz Nan Dirk de Graaf Conrad Hackett Jean-Philippe Antonietti |
| author_facet | Jörg Stolz Nan Dirk de Graaf Conrad Hackett Jean-Philippe Antonietti |
| author_sort | Jörg Stolz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Religiosity tends to decline across generations. However, religious decline is more pronounced in some countries and the diminishing aspects of religion vary by context. To explain such variation, we extend the general secular transition model, which proposes that countries undergo a similar process of secularization beginning at different points in time. We explain that secular transition happens in three steps: first, public ritual participation declines; second, the importance of religion to individuals declines; and third, people shed religious affiliation. We test this model using datasets from surveys in 111 countries (Pew Research Center), 58 countries (World Values Survey and European Values Study (WVS/EVS)), and a subset of 17 countries measured in at least five WVS/EVS waves. We show the model fits countries with Christian, Muslim, Hindu, and Buddhist pluralities. While Eastern post-Soviet countries deviate from this pattern, traditionally Muslim countries appear to follow its early stages. However, we recommend caution in interpreting longitudinal claims, due to limited data. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-27f0e7c2d50946f8bfda972de03bec82 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-27f0e7c2d50946f8bfda972de03bec822025-08-24T11:38:45ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-08-0116111710.1038/s41467-025-62452-zThe three stages of religious decline around the worldJörg Stolz0Nan Dirk de Graaf1Conrad Hackett2Jean-Philippe Antonietti3Institute for the Social Sciences of Religions, Faculty of Theology and Religious Studies, University of LausanneNuffield College, University of OxfordPew Research CenterInstitute of Psychology, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, University of LausanneAbstract Religiosity tends to decline across generations. However, religious decline is more pronounced in some countries and the diminishing aspects of religion vary by context. To explain such variation, we extend the general secular transition model, which proposes that countries undergo a similar process of secularization beginning at different points in time. We explain that secular transition happens in three steps: first, public ritual participation declines; second, the importance of religion to individuals declines; and third, people shed religious affiliation. We test this model using datasets from surveys in 111 countries (Pew Research Center), 58 countries (World Values Survey and European Values Study (WVS/EVS)), and a subset of 17 countries measured in at least five WVS/EVS waves. We show the model fits countries with Christian, Muslim, Hindu, and Buddhist pluralities. While Eastern post-Soviet countries deviate from this pattern, traditionally Muslim countries appear to follow its early stages. However, we recommend caution in interpreting longitudinal claims, due to limited data.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62452-z |
| spellingShingle | Jörg Stolz Nan Dirk de Graaf Conrad Hackett Jean-Philippe Antonietti The three stages of religious decline around the world Nature Communications |
| title | The three stages of religious decline around the world |
| title_full | The three stages of religious decline around the world |
| title_fullStr | The three stages of religious decline around the world |
| title_full_unstemmed | The three stages of religious decline around the world |
| title_short | The three stages of religious decline around the world |
| title_sort | three stages of religious decline around the world |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62452-z |
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