Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough.
Metapopulation rescue effects are thought to be key to the persistence of many acute immunizing infections. Yet the enhancement of persistence through spatial coupling has not been previously quantified. Here we estimate the metapopulation rescue effects for four childhood infections using global WH...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2013-01-01
|
| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0074696&type=printable |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849722153185837056 |
|---|---|
| author | C Jessica E Metcalf Katie Hampson Andrew J Tatem Bryan T Grenfell Ottar N Bjørnstad |
| author_facet | C Jessica E Metcalf Katie Hampson Andrew J Tatem Bryan T Grenfell Ottar N Bjørnstad |
| author_sort | C Jessica E Metcalf |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Metapopulation rescue effects are thought to be key to the persistence of many acute immunizing infections. Yet the enhancement of persistence through spatial coupling has not been previously quantified. Here we estimate the metapopulation rescue effects for four childhood infections using global WHO reported incidence data by comparing persistence on island countries vs all other countries, while controlling for key variables such as vaccine cover, birth rates and economic development. The relative risk of extinction on islands is significantly higher, and approximately double the risk of extinction in mainland countries. Furthermore, as may be expected, infections with longer infectious periods tend to have the strongest metapopulation rescue effects. Our results quantitate the notion that demography and local community size controls disease persistence. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-27d30dae1df140f6812460b632758bc2 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-27d30dae1df140f6812460b632758bc22025-08-20T03:11:25ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032013-01-0189e7469610.1371/journal.pone.0074696Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough.C Jessica E MetcalfKatie HampsonAndrew J TatemBryan T GrenfellOttar N BjørnstadMetapopulation rescue effects are thought to be key to the persistence of many acute immunizing infections. Yet the enhancement of persistence through spatial coupling has not been previously quantified. Here we estimate the metapopulation rescue effects for four childhood infections using global WHO reported incidence data by comparing persistence on island countries vs all other countries, while controlling for key variables such as vaccine cover, birth rates and economic development. The relative risk of extinction on islands is significantly higher, and approximately double the risk of extinction in mainland countries. Furthermore, as may be expected, infections with longer infectious periods tend to have the strongest metapopulation rescue effects. Our results quantitate the notion that demography and local community size controls disease persistence.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0074696&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | C Jessica E Metcalf Katie Hampson Andrew J Tatem Bryan T Grenfell Ottar N Bjørnstad Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough. PLoS ONE |
| title | Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough. |
| title_full | Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough. |
| title_fullStr | Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough. |
| title_short | Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough. |
| title_sort | persistence in epidemic metapopulations quantifying the rescue effects for measles mumps rubella and whooping cough |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0074696&type=printable |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cjessicaemetcalf persistenceinepidemicmetapopulationsquantifyingtherescueeffectsformeaslesmumpsrubellaandwhoopingcough AT katiehampson persistenceinepidemicmetapopulationsquantifyingtherescueeffectsformeaslesmumpsrubellaandwhoopingcough AT andrewjtatem persistenceinepidemicmetapopulationsquantifyingtherescueeffectsformeaslesmumpsrubellaandwhoopingcough AT bryantgrenfell persistenceinepidemicmetapopulationsquantifyingtherescueeffectsformeaslesmumpsrubellaandwhoopingcough AT ottarnbjørnstad persistenceinepidemicmetapopulationsquantifyingtherescueeffectsformeaslesmumpsrubellaandwhoopingcough |