RustMapper: White Pine Blister Rust Risk Across High Elevation Forests in the Western United States

Abstract White pine blister rust (WPBR) is one of North America’s most damaging tree epidemics. Aggregating data from more than 80 independent studies across the western U.S. from 1995–2024, we estimate WPBR risk for high-elevation five-needle pine species (High-5) from 1980–2023 in the adaptive man...

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Main Authors: Sparkle L. Malone, Anna W. Schoettle, Kelly S. Burns, Holly S. J. Kearns, Jane E. Stewart, Maria Newcomb, Christy M. Cleaver
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-06-01
Series:Scientific Data
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05382-1
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author Sparkle L. Malone
Anna W. Schoettle
Kelly S. Burns
Holly S. J. Kearns
Jane E. Stewart
Maria Newcomb
Christy M. Cleaver
author_facet Sparkle L. Malone
Anna W. Schoettle
Kelly S. Burns
Holly S. J. Kearns
Jane E. Stewart
Maria Newcomb
Christy M. Cleaver
author_sort Sparkle L. Malone
collection DOAJ
description Abstract White pine blister rust (WPBR) is one of North America’s most damaging tree epidemics. Aggregating data from more than 80 independent studies across the western U.S. from 1995–2024, we estimate WPBR risk for high-elevation five-needle pine species (High-5) from 1980–2023 in the adaptive management tool RustMapper. WPBR risk is the probability of observing WPBR on the High-5. Stream density, topography, hardiness zone, precipitation, air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, and relative humidity were critical in estimating WPBR risk. WPBR risk increased with moisture and declined with temperature. Across the High-5 range, suitable conditions were found in areas where the disease had not yet invaded and throughout regions where the disease was well established. As a result, the mean risk for WPBR was much higher in the north (~0.6) compared to the southern portions of the High-5 range (~0.15). These findings indicate cautious optimism for disease mitigation success in regions where the disease is established and urgency for proactive management where WPBR occurrence is currently low.
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spelling doaj-art-27d0ab844f1443528844d06cc0078f802025-08-20T02:36:50ZengNature PortfolioScientific Data2052-44632025-06-0112111710.1038/s41597-025-05382-1RustMapper: White Pine Blister Rust Risk Across High Elevation Forests in the Western United StatesSparkle L. Malone0Anna W. Schoettle1Kelly S. Burns2Holly S. J. Kearns3Jane E. Stewart4Maria Newcomb5Christy M. Cleaver6Yale School of the Environment, Yale UniversityUSDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research StationUSDA Forest Service, Forest Health ProtectionUSDA Forest Service, Forest Health ProtectionDepartment of Agricultural Biology, Colorado State UniversityUSDA Forest Service, Forest Health ProtectionUSDA Forest Service, Forest Health ProtectionAbstract White pine blister rust (WPBR) is one of North America’s most damaging tree epidemics. Aggregating data from more than 80 independent studies across the western U.S. from 1995–2024, we estimate WPBR risk for high-elevation five-needle pine species (High-5) from 1980–2023 in the adaptive management tool RustMapper. WPBR risk is the probability of observing WPBR on the High-5. Stream density, topography, hardiness zone, precipitation, air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, and relative humidity were critical in estimating WPBR risk. WPBR risk increased with moisture and declined with temperature. Across the High-5 range, suitable conditions were found in areas where the disease had not yet invaded and throughout regions where the disease was well established. As a result, the mean risk for WPBR was much higher in the north (~0.6) compared to the southern portions of the High-5 range (~0.15). These findings indicate cautious optimism for disease mitigation success in regions where the disease is established and urgency for proactive management where WPBR occurrence is currently low.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05382-1
spellingShingle Sparkle L. Malone
Anna W. Schoettle
Kelly S. Burns
Holly S. J. Kearns
Jane E. Stewart
Maria Newcomb
Christy M. Cleaver
RustMapper: White Pine Blister Rust Risk Across High Elevation Forests in the Western United States
Scientific Data
title RustMapper: White Pine Blister Rust Risk Across High Elevation Forests in the Western United States
title_full RustMapper: White Pine Blister Rust Risk Across High Elevation Forests in the Western United States
title_fullStr RustMapper: White Pine Blister Rust Risk Across High Elevation Forests in the Western United States
title_full_unstemmed RustMapper: White Pine Blister Rust Risk Across High Elevation Forests in the Western United States
title_short RustMapper: White Pine Blister Rust Risk Across High Elevation Forests in the Western United States
title_sort rustmapper white pine blister rust risk across high elevation forests in the western united states
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05382-1
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