RustMapper: White Pine Blister Rust Risk Across High Elevation Forests in the Western United States
Abstract White pine blister rust (WPBR) is one of North America’s most damaging tree epidemics. Aggregating data from more than 80 independent studies across the western U.S. from 1995–2024, we estimate WPBR risk for high-elevation five-needle pine species (High-5) from 1980–2023 in the adaptive man...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Scientific Data |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05382-1 |
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| author | Sparkle L. Malone Anna W. Schoettle Kelly S. Burns Holly S. J. Kearns Jane E. Stewart Maria Newcomb Christy M. Cleaver |
| author_facet | Sparkle L. Malone Anna W. Schoettle Kelly S. Burns Holly S. J. Kearns Jane E. Stewart Maria Newcomb Christy M. Cleaver |
| author_sort | Sparkle L. Malone |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract White pine blister rust (WPBR) is one of North America’s most damaging tree epidemics. Aggregating data from more than 80 independent studies across the western U.S. from 1995–2024, we estimate WPBR risk for high-elevation five-needle pine species (High-5) from 1980–2023 in the adaptive management tool RustMapper. WPBR risk is the probability of observing WPBR on the High-5. Stream density, topography, hardiness zone, precipitation, air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, and relative humidity were critical in estimating WPBR risk. WPBR risk increased with moisture and declined with temperature. Across the High-5 range, suitable conditions were found in areas where the disease had not yet invaded and throughout regions where the disease was well established. As a result, the mean risk for WPBR was much higher in the north (~0.6) compared to the southern portions of the High-5 range (~0.15). These findings indicate cautious optimism for disease mitigation success in regions where the disease is established and urgency for proactive management where WPBR occurrence is currently low. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-27d0ab844f1443528844d06cc0078f80 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2052-4463 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Data |
| spelling | doaj-art-27d0ab844f1443528844d06cc0078f802025-08-20T02:36:50ZengNature PortfolioScientific Data2052-44632025-06-0112111710.1038/s41597-025-05382-1RustMapper: White Pine Blister Rust Risk Across High Elevation Forests in the Western United StatesSparkle L. Malone0Anna W. Schoettle1Kelly S. Burns2Holly S. J. Kearns3Jane E. Stewart4Maria Newcomb5Christy M. Cleaver6Yale School of the Environment, Yale UniversityUSDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research StationUSDA Forest Service, Forest Health ProtectionUSDA Forest Service, Forest Health ProtectionDepartment of Agricultural Biology, Colorado State UniversityUSDA Forest Service, Forest Health ProtectionUSDA Forest Service, Forest Health ProtectionAbstract White pine blister rust (WPBR) is one of North America’s most damaging tree epidemics. Aggregating data from more than 80 independent studies across the western U.S. from 1995–2024, we estimate WPBR risk for high-elevation five-needle pine species (High-5) from 1980–2023 in the adaptive management tool RustMapper. WPBR risk is the probability of observing WPBR on the High-5. Stream density, topography, hardiness zone, precipitation, air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, and relative humidity were critical in estimating WPBR risk. WPBR risk increased with moisture and declined with temperature. Across the High-5 range, suitable conditions were found in areas where the disease had not yet invaded and throughout regions where the disease was well established. As a result, the mean risk for WPBR was much higher in the north (~0.6) compared to the southern portions of the High-5 range (~0.15). These findings indicate cautious optimism for disease mitigation success in regions where the disease is established and urgency for proactive management where WPBR occurrence is currently low.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05382-1 |
| spellingShingle | Sparkle L. Malone Anna W. Schoettle Kelly S. Burns Holly S. J. Kearns Jane E. Stewart Maria Newcomb Christy M. Cleaver RustMapper: White Pine Blister Rust Risk Across High Elevation Forests in the Western United States Scientific Data |
| title | RustMapper: White Pine Blister Rust Risk Across High Elevation Forests in the Western United States |
| title_full | RustMapper: White Pine Blister Rust Risk Across High Elevation Forests in the Western United States |
| title_fullStr | RustMapper: White Pine Blister Rust Risk Across High Elevation Forests in the Western United States |
| title_full_unstemmed | RustMapper: White Pine Blister Rust Risk Across High Elevation Forests in the Western United States |
| title_short | RustMapper: White Pine Blister Rust Risk Across High Elevation Forests in the Western United States |
| title_sort | rustmapper white pine blister rust risk across high elevation forests in the western united states |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05382-1 |
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