Do People Believe They Are Less Predictable Than Others? Three Replications of Pronin and Kugler’s (2010) Experiment 1
Pronin and Kugler (2010) proposed that people believe they have more free will than others. In their Experiment 1 they showed that US students evaluated their own decisions and life events as less predictable than similar decisions and life events of close others, presumably suggesting higher free w...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Ubiquity Press
2024-12-01
|
| Series: | International Review of Social Psychology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://account.rips-irsp.com/index.php/up-j-irsp/article/view/946 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1841554923756453888 |
|---|---|
| author | Subramanya Prasad Chandrashekar Stephanie Permut Hallgeir Sjåstad Chelsea (Chi Wing) Lo Yong Jun Kueh Emily Sihui Zhong Kai Hin Wan Kai Yi Kelly Choy Man Chung Wong Stanley Wei Jian Hugh Khan Tahira Bo Ley Cheng Gilad Feldman |
| author_facet | Subramanya Prasad Chandrashekar Stephanie Permut Hallgeir Sjåstad Chelsea (Chi Wing) Lo Yong Jun Kueh Emily Sihui Zhong Kai Hin Wan Kai Yi Kelly Choy Man Chung Wong Stanley Wei Jian Hugh Khan Tahira Bo Ley Cheng Gilad Feldman |
| author_sort | Subramanya Prasad Chandrashekar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Pronin and Kugler (2010) proposed that people believe they have more free will than others. In their Experiment 1 they showed that US students evaluated their own decisions and life events as less predictable than similar decisions and life events of close others, presumably suggesting higher free will attributions. We conducted three pre-registered replications of this study, one with a Hong Kong undergraduate sample (N = 47) and two online samples from the USA (MTurk using CloudResearch: N = 126, Prolific: N = 858) (overall N = 1031). In Studies 1a and 1b that mirrored the target article’s mixed design (self-other between, past-future within), we found support for the original findings with weaker effects. In Study 2 we contrasted between-subject versus within-subject designs in a single data collection. We successfully replicated the effects with the between-subject design, whereas we failed to find support for the effect using the within-subjects design. This suggests support for the phenomenon in single evaluation mode assessing either the self or the other, but that people correct for the self-other asymmetry in perceived predictability when the judgment is made in joint evaluations mode. Materials, data, and code are available on: https://osf.io/ykmqp/. Open peer review: https://osf.io/d47kj. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-27ac194f97d844dcba00883bbda64c5a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2397-8570 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Ubiquity Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Review of Social Psychology |
| spelling | doaj-art-27ac194f97d844dcba00883bbda64c5a2025-01-08T07:57:41ZengUbiquity PressInternational Review of Social Psychology2397-85702024-12-01371202010.5334/irsp.946946Do People Believe They Are Less Predictable Than Others? Three Replications of Pronin and Kugler’s (2010) Experiment 1Subramanya Prasad Chandrashekar0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8599-9241Stephanie Permut1Hallgeir Sjåstad2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8730-1038Chelsea (Chi Wing) Lo3https://orcid.org/0009-0008-6052-7759Yong Jun Kueh4Emily Sihui Zhong5Kai Hin Wan6Kai Yi Kelly Choy7Man Chung Wong8Stanley Wei Jian Hugh9Khan Tahira10Bo Ley Cheng11Gilad Feldman12https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2812-6599Department of Psychology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment Princeton UniversityDepartment of Strategy and Management, Norwegian School of EconomicsDepartment of Psychology, University of Hong KongDepartment of Psychology, University of Hong KongDepartment of Psychology, University of Hong KongDepartment of Psychology, University of Hong KongDepartment of Psychology, University of Hong KongDepartment of Psychology, University of Hong KongDepartment of Psychology, University of Hong KongDepartment of Psychology, University of Hong KongDepartment of Psychology, University of Hong KongDepartment of Psychology, University of Hong KongPronin and Kugler (2010) proposed that people believe they have more free will than others. In their Experiment 1 they showed that US students evaluated their own decisions and life events as less predictable than similar decisions and life events of close others, presumably suggesting higher free will attributions. We conducted three pre-registered replications of this study, one with a Hong Kong undergraduate sample (N = 47) and two online samples from the USA (MTurk using CloudResearch: N = 126, Prolific: N = 858) (overall N = 1031). In Studies 1a and 1b that mirrored the target article’s mixed design (self-other between, past-future within), we found support for the original findings with weaker effects. In Study 2 we contrasted between-subject versus within-subject designs in a single data collection. We successfully replicated the effects with the between-subject design, whereas we failed to find support for the effect using the within-subjects design. This suggests support for the phenomenon in single evaluation mode assessing either the self or the other, but that people correct for the self-other asymmetry in perceived predictability when the judgment is made in joint evaluations mode. Materials, data, and code are available on: https://osf.io/ykmqp/. Open peer review: https://osf.io/d47kj.https://account.rips-irsp.com/index.php/up-j-irsp/article/view/946predictabilityself-other asymmetryfree will attributionsreplication |
| spellingShingle | Subramanya Prasad Chandrashekar Stephanie Permut Hallgeir Sjåstad Chelsea (Chi Wing) Lo Yong Jun Kueh Emily Sihui Zhong Kai Hin Wan Kai Yi Kelly Choy Man Chung Wong Stanley Wei Jian Hugh Khan Tahira Bo Ley Cheng Gilad Feldman Do People Believe They Are Less Predictable Than Others? Three Replications of Pronin and Kugler’s (2010) Experiment 1 International Review of Social Psychology predictability self-other asymmetry free will attributions replication |
| title | Do People Believe They Are Less Predictable Than Others? Three Replications of Pronin and Kugler’s (2010) Experiment 1 |
| title_full | Do People Believe They Are Less Predictable Than Others? Three Replications of Pronin and Kugler’s (2010) Experiment 1 |
| title_fullStr | Do People Believe They Are Less Predictable Than Others? Three Replications of Pronin and Kugler’s (2010) Experiment 1 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Do People Believe They Are Less Predictable Than Others? Three Replications of Pronin and Kugler’s (2010) Experiment 1 |
| title_short | Do People Believe They Are Less Predictable Than Others? Three Replications of Pronin and Kugler’s (2010) Experiment 1 |
| title_sort | do people believe they are less predictable than others three replications of pronin and kugler s 2010 experiment 1 |
| topic | predictability self-other asymmetry free will attributions replication |
| url | https://account.rips-irsp.com/index.php/up-j-irsp/article/view/946 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT subramanyaprasadchandrashekar dopeoplebelievetheyarelesspredictablethanothersthreereplicationsofproninandkuglers2010experiment1 AT stephaniepermut dopeoplebelievetheyarelesspredictablethanothersthreereplicationsofproninandkuglers2010experiment1 AT hallgeirsjastad dopeoplebelievetheyarelesspredictablethanothersthreereplicationsofproninandkuglers2010experiment1 AT chelseachiwinglo dopeoplebelievetheyarelesspredictablethanothersthreereplicationsofproninandkuglers2010experiment1 AT yongjunkueh dopeoplebelievetheyarelesspredictablethanothersthreereplicationsofproninandkuglers2010experiment1 AT emilysihuizhong dopeoplebelievetheyarelesspredictablethanothersthreereplicationsofproninandkuglers2010experiment1 AT kaihinwan dopeoplebelievetheyarelesspredictablethanothersthreereplicationsofproninandkuglers2010experiment1 AT kaiyikellychoy dopeoplebelievetheyarelesspredictablethanothersthreereplicationsofproninandkuglers2010experiment1 AT manchungwong dopeoplebelievetheyarelesspredictablethanothersthreereplicationsofproninandkuglers2010experiment1 AT stanleyweijianhugh dopeoplebelievetheyarelesspredictablethanothersthreereplicationsofproninandkuglers2010experiment1 AT khantahira dopeoplebelievetheyarelesspredictablethanothersthreereplicationsofproninandkuglers2010experiment1 AT boleycheng dopeoplebelievetheyarelesspredictablethanothersthreereplicationsofproninandkuglers2010experiment1 AT giladfeldman dopeoplebelievetheyarelesspredictablethanothersthreereplicationsofproninandkuglers2010experiment1 |