Climate trends and attribution analysis of runoff changes in the Hulan River from 1960-2020 based on the Budyko hypothesis
Study region: Hulan River Basin, Heilongjiang Province. Study focus: This research employed a suite of statistical methods, including linear trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, to examine trends and identify abrupt changes in various meteorological factors and runoff within the watershed....
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-10-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825004872 |
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| Summary: | Study region: Hulan River Basin, Heilongjiang Province. Study focus: This research employed a suite of statistical methods, including linear trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, to examine trends and identify abrupt changes in various meteorological factors and runoff within the watershed. Wavelet analysis was used to explore the periodicity of these factors and their interrelationships. The Budyko framework was implemented to ascertain the contributions of different drivers to changes in natural runoff and to quantify the impact of climate change and human activities on watershed runoff. New hydrological insights for the region: Our results show that significant climatic shifts within the study period. Specifically, the temperature in the Hulan River Basin has notably increased. This period also saw a synchronous rise in winter precipitation and runoff. Human activities emerged as the primary drivers of runoff variations in spring, autumn, and winter, whereas climate change predominantly influenced summer runoff changes. The correlation between the seasonal runoff changes predicted by the Budyko framework and the actual observed changes was robust, generally exceeding 0.8. Notably, correlation coefficients were higher than 0.95 in spring and autumn, with winter showing the lowest correlation at 0.84. These results confirm the effectiveness of the Budyko framework in this region. The most significant period of land use change occurred between 2000 and 2010, marked by a decrease in forest area by 959 km² and an increase in cultivated land by 1038 km². Through an analysis of changes in temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff across different periods, this study quantifies the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff, providing a scientific basis for the development of future water resource management strategies in the Hulan River Basin. |
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| ISSN: | 2214-5818 |