Projected Thermally Driven Elderly Mortality for Beijing Under Greenhouse Gas and Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Scenarios

Abstract Beijing is undergoing multiple challenges including urbanization, warming and aging. The Beijing megalopolis of 20 million people now suffers more cold‐related than heat‐related deaths. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) geoengineering is designed to lower surface temperatures, so if SAI...

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Main Authors: Jun Wang, Liyun Zhao, John C. Moore
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024-07-01
Series:Earth's Future
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004422
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author Jun Wang
Liyun Zhao
John C. Moore
author_facet Jun Wang
Liyun Zhao
John C. Moore
author_sort Jun Wang
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Beijing is undergoing multiple challenges including urbanization, warming and aging. The Beijing megalopolis of 20 million people now suffers more cold‐related than heat‐related deaths. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) geoengineering is designed to lower surface temperatures, so if SAI were ever done, it may reduce future heat‐related mortality, while also increasing cold‐related mortality. Here we use four Earth System Models (ESM) downscaled to 10 km resolution with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system to capture urban temperature, humidity and wind speeds. Temperature‐related mortality risk were calculated using a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) of the elderly (over 65s) under the dynamically downscaled moderate (RCP4.5) and extreme (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas, and the G4 SAI scenarios. We used population demographics for all five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) and various adaptation measures. Heat‐related excess deaths under G4 are 630∼3,160 per year fewer than RCP4.5, while cold‐related deaths are 370∼1,990 more than RCP4.5 during 2060–2069, with a marginally significant net reduction. G4 significantly reduces the excess deaths relative to RCP8.5. Both heat‐related and cold‐related mortality will increase by 240∼490% when the aging population is accounted for, and decrease by 11%, 23% and 44% under low, medium and high adaptation relative to a no adaptation scenario. Dynamical downscaling produces better quality climate simulations than commonly used statistical approaches, and in the case of Beijing, significantly fewer heat‐related deaths. The marginal health benefits of modest future SAI in Beijing may be representative of the population impacts in the extra‐tropics where deaths due to cold are more than those caused by heat.
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spelling doaj-art-273aea25a63e4a52ae5909bc7aa752692025-01-29T07:58:52ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772024-07-01127n/an/a10.1029/2024EF004422Projected Thermally Driven Elderly Mortality for Beijing Under Greenhouse Gas and Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering ScenariosJun Wang0Liyun Zhao1John C. Moore2State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaArctic Centre University of Lapland Rovaniemi FinlandAbstract Beijing is undergoing multiple challenges including urbanization, warming and aging. The Beijing megalopolis of 20 million people now suffers more cold‐related than heat‐related deaths. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) geoengineering is designed to lower surface temperatures, so if SAI were ever done, it may reduce future heat‐related mortality, while also increasing cold‐related mortality. Here we use four Earth System Models (ESM) downscaled to 10 km resolution with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system to capture urban temperature, humidity and wind speeds. Temperature‐related mortality risk were calculated using a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) of the elderly (over 65s) under the dynamically downscaled moderate (RCP4.5) and extreme (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas, and the G4 SAI scenarios. We used population demographics for all five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) and various adaptation measures. Heat‐related excess deaths under G4 are 630∼3,160 per year fewer than RCP4.5, while cold‐related deaths are 370∼1,990 more than RCP4.5 during 2060–2069, with a marginally significant net reduction. G4 significantly reduces the excess deaths relative to RCP8.5. Both heat‐related and cold‐related mortality will increase by 240∼490% when the aging population is accounted for, and decrease by 11%, 23% and 44% under low, medium and high adaptation relative to a no adaptation scenario. Dynamical downscaling produces better quality climate simulations than commonly used statistical approaches, and in the case of Beijing, significantly fewer heat‐related deaths. The marginal health benefits of modest future SAI in Beijing may be representative of the population impacts in the extra‐tropics where deaths due to cold are more than those caused by heat.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004422mortalityclimate engineeringdownscalinggeomipssp
spellingShingle Jun Wang
Liyun Zhao
John C. Moore
Projected Thermally Driven Elderly Mortality for Beijing Under Greenhouse Gas and Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Scenarios
Earth's Future
mortality
climate engineering
downscaling
geomip
ssp
title Projected Thermally Driven Elderly Mortality for Beijing Under Greenhouse Gas and Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Scenarios
title_full Projected Thermally Driven Elderly Mortality for Beijing Under Greenhouse Gas and Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Scenarios
title_fullStr Projected Thermally Driven Elderly Mortality for Beijing Under Greenhouse Gas and Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Scenarios
title_full_unstemmed Projected Thermally Driven Elderly Mortality for Beijing Under Greenhouse Gas and Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Scenarios
title_short Projected Thermally Driven Elderly Mortality for Beijing Under Greenhouse Gas and Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Scenarios
title_sort projected thermally driven elderly mortality for beijing under greenhouse gas and stratospheric aerosol geoengineering scenarios
topic mortality
climate engineering
downscaling
geomip
ssp
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004422
work_keys_str_mv AT junwang projectedthermallydrivenelderlymortalityforbeijingundergreenhousegasandstratosphericaerosolgeoengineeringscenarios
AT liyunzhao projectedthermallydrivenelderlymortalityforbeijingundergreenhousegasandstratosphericaerosolgeoengineeringscenarios
AT johncmoore projectedthermallydrivenelderlymortalityforbeijingundergreenhousegasandstratosphericaerosolgeoengineeringscenarios