Development and application of simulation modelling for orthopaedic elective resource planning in England

Objectives This study aimed to develop a simulation model to support orthopaedic elective capacity planning.Methods An open-source, generalisable discrete-event simulation was developed, including a web-based application. The model used anonymised patient records between 2016 and 2019 of elective or...

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Main Authors: Martin Pitt, Andrew Judge, Tim Jones, Michael R Whitehouse, Thomas Monks, Rebecca Wilson, Chris Penfold, Andrew Elliott, Ashley Blom, Maria Theresa Redaniel, Alison Harper, Emily Eyles, Tim Keen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMJ Publishing Group 2023-12-01
Series:BMJ Open
Online Access:https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/13/12/e076221.full
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author Martin Pitt
Andrew Judge
Tim Jones
Michael R Whitehouse
Thomas Monks
Rebecca Wilson
Chris Penfold
Andrew Elliott
Ashley Blom
Maria Theresa Redaniel
Alison Harper
Emily Eyles
Tim Keen
author_facet Martin Pitt
Andrew Judge
Tim Jones
Michael R Whitehouse
Thomas Monks
Rebecca Wilson
Chris Penfold
Andrew Elliott
Ashley Blom
Maria Theresa Redaniel
Alison Harper
Emily Eyles
Tim Keen
author_sort Martin Pitt
collection DOAJ
description Objectives This study aimed to develop a simulation model to support orthopaedic elective capacity planning.Methods An open-source, generalisable discrete-event simulation was developed, including a web-based application. The model used anonymised patient records between 2016 and 2019 of elective orthopaedic procedures from a National Health Service (NHS) Trust in England. In this paper, it is used to investigate scenarios including resourcing (beds and theatres) and productivity (lengths of stay, delayed discharges and theatre activity) to support planning for meeting new NHS targets aimed at reducing elective orthopaedic surgical backlogs in a proposed ring-fenced orthopaedic surgical facility. The simulation is interactive and intended for use by health service planners and clinicians.Results A higher number of beds (65–70) than the proposed number (40 beds) will be required if lengths of stay and delayed discharge rates remain unchanged. Reducing lengths of stay in line with national benchmarks reduces bed utilisation to an estimated 60%, allowing for additional theatre activity such as weekend working. Further, reducing the proportion of patients with a delayed discharge by 75% reduces bed utilisation to below 40%, even with weekend working. A range of other scenarios can also be investigated directly by NHS planners using the interactive web app.Conclusions The simulation model is intended to support capacity planning of orthopaedic elective services by identifying a balance of capacity across theatres and beds and predicting the impact of productivity measures on capacity requirements. It is applicable beyond the study site and can be adapted for other specialties.
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spelling doaj-art-27053f8c7ea54e7c8e164efce9df62f22025-08-20T03:52:16ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552023-12-01131210.1136/bmjopen-2023-076221Development and application of simulation modelling for orthopaedic elective resource planning in EnglandMartin Pitt0Andrew Judge1Tim Jones2Michael R Whitehouse3Thomas Monks4Rebecca Wilson5Chris Penfold6Andrew Elliott7Ashley Blom8Maria Theresa Redaniel9Alison Harper10Emily Eyles11Tim Keen127 Medical School, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK7 Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Oxford NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK1 National Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaboration West (NIHR ARC West) at University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, University of Bristol, Bristol, UKNorth Bristol NHS Trust Southmead Hospital, Bristol, UK2 University of Exeter Medical School, University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon, UK1NIHR ARC West, Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK1 National Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaboration West (NIHR ARC West) at University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK9Caris Life Sciences, Phoenix, AZ, USA4 The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UKPopulation Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UKUniversity of Exeter Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Exeter, UK1 National Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaboration West (NIHR ARC West) at University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK8 North Bristol NHS Trust, Westbury on Trym, Bristol, UKObjectives This study aimed to develop a simulation model to support orthopaedic elective capacity planning.Methods An open-source, generalisable discrete-event simulation was developed, including a web-based application. The model used anonymised patient records between 2016 and 2019 of elective orthopaedic procedures from a National Health Service (NHS) Trust in England. In this paper, it is used to investigate scenarios including resourcing (beds and theatres) and productivity (lengths of stay, delayed discharges and theatre activity) to support planning for meeting new NHS targets aimed at reducing elective orthopaedic surgical backlogs in a proposed ring-fenced orthopaedic surgical facility. The simulation is interactive and intended for use by health service planners and clinicians.Results A higher number of beds (65–70) than the proposed number (40 beds) will be required if lengths of stay and delayed discharge rates remain unchanged. Reducing lengths of stay in line with national benchmarks reduces bed utilisation to an estimated 60%, allowing for additional theatre activity such as weekend working. Further, reducing the proportion of patients with a delayed discharge by 75% reduces bed utilisation to below 40%, even with weekend working. A range of other scenarios can also be investigated directly by NHS planners using the interactive web app.Conclusions The simulation model is intended to support capacity planning of orthopaedic elective services by identifying a balance of capacity across theatres and beds and predicting the impact of productivity measures on capacity requirements. It is applicable beyond the study site and can be adapted for other specialties.https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/13/12/e076221.full
spellingShingle Martin Pitt
Andrew Judge
Tim Jones
Michael R Whitehouse
Thomas Monks
Rebecca Wilson
Chris Penfold
Andrew Elliott
Ashley Blom
Maria Theresa Redaniel
Alison Harper
Emily Eyles
Tim Keen
Development and application of simulation modelling for orthopaedic elective resource planning in England
BMJ Open
title Development and application of simulation modelling for orthopaedic elective resource planning in England
title_full Development and application of simulation modelling for orthopaedic elective resource planning in England
title_fullStr Development and application of simulation modelling for orthopaedic elective resource planning in England
title_full_unstemmed Development and application of simulation modelling for orthopaedic elective resource planning in England
title_short Development and application of simulation modelling for orthopaedic elective resource planning in England
title_sort development and application of simulation modelling for orthopaedic elective resource planning in england
url https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/13/12/e076221.full
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