COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN AND MARKOV CHAIN METHODS FOR FORECASTING ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN MATARAM CITY
The consumption of electrical energy continues to experience fluctuations every month, and these fluctuations cannot be accurately predicted. This uncertainty can become a problem if not projected and planned effectively. Therefore, PT PLN (Persero) needs to be able to provide and distribute electri...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Universitas Pattimura
2024-10-01
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| Series: | Barekeng |
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| Online Access: | https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12802 |
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| author | Nirwanto Nirwanto Syamsul Bahri Lisa Harsyiah |
| author_facet | Nirwanto Nirwanto Syamsul Bahri Lisa Harsyiah |
| author_sort | Nirwanto Nirwanto |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The consumption of electrical energy continues to experience fluctuations every month, and these fluctuations cannot be accurately predicted. This uncertainty can become a problem if not projected and planned effectively. Therefore, PT PLN (Persero) needs to be able to provide and distribute electricity supply in an appropriate amount. This research aims to forecast electricity consumption based on historical data from January 2016 to April 2023 using the Fuzzy Time Series Chen (FTSC) method and the Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain (FTSMC) method. The results of this research show that the forecast for May 2023 using the FTSC and FTSMC methods are 136.878.489 kWh and 143.498.523 kWh, respectively, with MAPE values of 11.61739% and 4.85428%, respectively. Therefore, forecasting in May 2023 using the FTSMC method is better than the FTSC method because the MAPE value is smaller. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-26fe00d74fb94800ac4dafd60ead2f84 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1978-7227 2615-3017 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | Universitas Pattimura |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Barekeng |
| spelling | doaj-art-26fe00d74fb94800ac4dafd60ead2f842025-08-20T03:37:34ZengUniversitas PattimuraBarekeng1978-72272615-30172024-10-011842375238610.30598/barekengvol18iss4pp2375-238612802COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN AND MARKOV CHAIN METHODS FOR FORECASTING ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN MATARAM CITYNirwanto Nirwanto0Syamsul Bahri1Lisa Harsyiah2Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Mataram, IndonesiaDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Mataram, IndonesiaDepartment of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Mataram, IndonesiaThe consumption of electrical energy continues to experience fluctuations every month, and these fluctuations cannot be accurately predicted. This uncertainty can become a problem if not projected and planned effectively. Therefore, PT PLN (Persero) needs to be able to provide and distribute electricity supply in an appropriate amount. This research aims to forecast electricity consumption based on historical data from January 2016 to April 2023 using the Fuzzy Time Series Chen (FTSC) method and the Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain (FTSMC) method. The results of this research show that the forecast for May 2023 using the FTSC and FTSMC methods are 136.878.489 kWh and 143.498.523 kWh, respectively, with MAPE values of 11.61739% and 4.85428%, respectively. Therefore, forecasting in May 2023 using the FTSMC method is better than the FTSC method because the MAPE value is smaller.https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12802forecastingelectric energyftscftsmcmape |
| spellingShingle | Nirwanto Nirwanto Syamsul Bahri Lisa Harsyiah COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN AND MARKOV CHAIN METHODS FOR FORECASTING ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN MATARAM CITY Barekeng forecasting electric energy ftsc ftsmc mape |
| title | COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN AND MARKOV CHAIN METHODS FOR FORECASTING ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN MATARAM CITY |
| title_full | COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN AND MARKOV CHAIN METHODS FOR FORECASTING ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN MATARAM CITY |
| title_fullStr | COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN AND MARKOV CHAIN METHODS FOR FORECASTING ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN MATARAM CITY |
| title_full_unstemmed | COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN AND MARKOV CHAIN METHODS FOR FORECASTING ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN MATARAM CITY |
| title_short | COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN AND MARKOV CHAIN METHODS FOR FORECASTING ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN MATARAM CITY |
| title_sort | comparative analysis of fuzzy time series chen and markov chain methods for forecasting electricity consumption in mataram city |
| topic | forecasting electric energy ftsc ftsmc mape |
| url | https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12802 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nirwantonirwanto comparativeanalysisoffuzzytimeserieschenandmarkovchainmethodsforforecastingelectricityconsumptioninmataramcity AT syamsulbahri comparativeanalysisoffuzzytimeserieschenandmarkovchainmethodsforforecastingelectricityconsumptioninmataramcity AT lisaharsyiah comparativeanalysisoffuzzytimeserieschenandmarkovchainmethodsforforecastingelectricityconsumptioninmataramcity |