Establishment of a prediction model for long-term infections in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis

Background and ObjectivePeritoneal dialysis (PD)-associated infections are the primary contributors to PD technique failure and patient mortality. Given these reasons, this study aims to identify independent risk factors for long-term infections in PD individuals and to construct an effective clinic...

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Main Authors: Mengmeng Liu, Qian Lu, Jinzhu Sun, Shengnan Dai, Feng Yan, Chun Yang, Qiuhua Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-06-01
Series:Frontiers in Medicine
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Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2025.1596403/full
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author Mengmeng Liu
Qian Lu
Jinzhu Sun
Shengnan Dai
Feng Yan
Chun Yang
Qiuhua Zhang
author_facet Mengmeng Liu
Qian Lu
Jinzhu Sun
Shengnan Dai
Feng Yan
Chun Yang
Qiuhua Zhang
author_sort Mengmeng Liu
collection DOAJ
description Background and ObjectivePeritoneal dialysis (PD)-associated infections are the primary contributors to PD technique failure and patient mortality. Given these reasons, this study aims to identify independent risk factors for long-term infections in PD individuals and to construct an effective clinical prediction model using multivariate analysis.MethodsThis study retrospectively analyzed 214 participants with ESRD who underwent PD catheterization at Wuxi No. 2 People’s Hospital. Based on whether they developed infections or not after 3 months treatment of regular peritoneal dialysis, all patients were categorized into two cohorts: infected (n = 67) and non-infected (n = 147). A comparison of clinical indicators was made between the two cohorts, and independent risk factors were initially determined through the means of univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses for infections in PD patients. Via R software, we constructed a nomogram prediction model, its performance was validated.ResultsAge (p = 0.004), surgical incision length (p = 0.018), and Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI, p < 0.001) were identified as independent risk factors for long-term infections in PD patients. Based on the three significant predictors, we constructed a nomogram model, of which predictive performance was assessed through analysis of the ROC curve, which revealed area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.807, demonstrating good discriminative ability of the prediction model for long-term infection risk in PD patients.ConclusionAdvanced age, lower PNI, and longer surgical incision length are closely linked to the occurrence of infections in PD individuals. The nomogram model which was based on this study showed high efficacy in predicting long-term infections and can serve as a reference to recognize individuals with a high likelihood of complications for medical caregivers as early as possible.
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spelling doaj-art-26f558279ab74e9795aabaffe9c83ccc2025-08-20T03:21:30ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Medicine2296-858X2025-06-011210.3389/fmed.2025.15964031596403Establishment of a prediction model for long-term infections in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysisMengmeng Liu0Qian Lu1Jinzhu Sun2Shengnan Dai3Feng Yan4Chun Yang5Qiuhua Zhang6Department of Nephrology, Wuxi No.2 People’s Hospital, Jiangnan University Medical Center, Wuxi, ChinaDepartment of Nephrology, Wuxi No.2 People’s Hospital, Jiangnan University Medical Center, Wuxi, ChinaDepartment of Nephrology, Wuxi No.2 People’s Hospital, Jiangnan University Medical Center, Wuxi, ChinaDepartment of Nephrology, Wuxi No.2 People’s Hospital, Jiangnan University Medical Center, Wuxi, ChinaDepartment of Nephrology, Wuxi No.2 People’s Hospital, Jiangnan University Medical Center, Wuxi, ChinaDepartment of Urology, Wuxi No.2 People’s Hospital, Jiangnan University Medical Center, Wuxi, ChinaDepartment of Nephrology, Wuxi No.2 People’s Hospital, Jiangnan University Medical Center, Wuxi, ChinaBackground and ObjectivePeritoneal dialysis (PD)-associated infections are the primary contributors to PD technique failure and patient mortality. Given these reasons, this study aims to identify independent risk factors for long-term infections in PD individuals and to construct an effective clinical prediction model using multivariate analysis.MethodsThis study retrospectively analyzed 214 participants with ESRD who underwent PD catheterization at Wuxi No. 2 People’s Hospital. Based on whether they developed infections or not after 3 months treatment of regular peritoneal dialysis, all patients were categorized into two cohorts: infected (n = 67) and non-infected (n = 147). A comparison of clinical indicators was made between the two cohorts, and independent risk factors were initially determined through the means of univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses for infections in PD patients. Via R software, we constructed a nomogram prediction model, its performance was validated.ResultsAge (p = 0.004), surgical incision length (p = 0.018), and Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI, p < 0.001) were identified as independent risk factors for long-term infections in PD patients. Based on the three significant predictors, we constructed a nomogram model, of which predictive performance was assessed through analysis of the ROC curve, which revealed area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.807, demonstrating good discriminative ability of the prediction model for long-term infection risk in PD patients.ConclusionAdvanced age, lower PNI, and longer surgical incision length are closely linked to the occurrence of infections in PD individuals. The nomogram model which was based on this study showed high efficacy in predicting long-term infections and can serve as a reference to recognize individuals with a high likelihood of complications for medical caregivers as early as possible.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2025.1596403/fullend-stage renal diseaseperitoneal dialysislong-term infectionprediction modelnomogram
spellingShingle Mengmeng Liu
Qian Lu
Jinzhu Sun
Shengnan Dai
Feng Yan
Chun Yang
Qiuhua Zhang
Establishment of a prediction model for long-term infections in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis
Frontiers in Medicine
end-stage renal disease
peritoneal dialysis
long-term infection
prediction model
nomogram
title Establishment of a prediction model for long-term infections in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis
title_full Establishment of a prediction model for long-term infections in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis
title_fullStr Establishment of a prediction model for long-term infections in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis
title_full_unstemmed Establishment of a prediction model for long-term infections in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis
title_short Establishment of a prediction model for long-term infections in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis
title_sort establishment of a prediction model for long term infections in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis
topic end-stage renal disease
peritoneal dialysis
long-term infection
prediction model
nomogram
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2025.1596403/full
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