Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 models
Abstract Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are elongated bands of high water vapor concentration extending to the midlatitudes, which can be associated with intense precipitation and floods over continental areas. We analyze ARs reaching Europe in simulations from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Ph...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2016-09-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070634 |
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| author | Alexandre M. Ramos Ricardo Tomé Ricardo M. Trigo Margarida L. R. Liberato Joaquim G. Pinto |
| author_facet | Alexandre M. Ramos Ricardo Tomé Ricardo M. Trigo Margarida L. R. Liberato Joaquim G. Pinto |
| author_sort | Alexandre M. Ramos |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are elongated bands of high water vapor concentration extending to the midlatitudes, which can be associated with intense precipitation and floods over continental areas. We analyze ARs reaching Europe in simulations from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) to quantify possible changes during the current century, with emphasis in five western European prone coastal areas. ARs are represented reasonably well in GCMs for recent climate conditions (1980–2005). Increased vertically integrated horizontal water transport is found for 2074–2099 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) compared to 1980–2005, while the number of ARs is projected to double on average for the same period. These changes are robust between models and are associated with higher air temperatures and thus enhanced atmospheric moisture content, together with higher precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones. This suggests an increased risk of intense precipitation and floods along the Atlantic European Coasts from the Iberian Peninsula to Scandinavia. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-26bb2ba101e848bfa8cdb8b3aed3da66 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2016-09-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-26bb2ba101e848bfa8cdb8b3aed3da662025-08-20T03:10:24ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072016-09-0143179315932310.1002/2016GL070634Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 modelsAlexandre M. Ramos0Ricardo Tomé1Ricardo M. Trigo2Margarida L. R. Liberato3Joaquim G. Pinto4Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências Universidade de Lisboa Lisbon PortugalInstituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências Universidade de Lisboa Lisbon PortugalInstituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências Universidade de Lisboa Lisbon PortugalInstituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências Universidade de Lisboa Lisbon PortugalDepartment of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UKAbstract Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are elongated bands of high water vapor concentration extending to the midlatitudes, which can be associated with intense precipitation and floods over continental areas. We analyze ARs reaching Europe in simulations from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) to quantify possible changes during the current century, with emphasis in five western European prone coastal areas. ARs are represented reasonably well in GCMs for recent climate conditions (1980–2005). Increased vertically integrated horizontal water transport is found for 2074–2099 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) compared to 1980–2005, while the number of ARs is projected to double on average for the same period. These changes are robust between models and are associated with higher air temperatures and thus enhanced atmospheric moisture content, together with higher precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones. This suggests an increased risk of intense precipitation and floods along the Atlantic European Coasts from the Iberian Peninsula to Scandinavia.https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070634Atmospheric Riversclimate projectionsEuropeCMIP5 modelsprecipitationextratropical cyclones |
| spellingShingle | Alexandre M. Ramos Ricardo Tomé Ricardo M. Trigo Margarida L. R. Liberato Joaquim G. Pinto Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 models Geophysical Research Letters Atmospheric Rivers climate projections Europe CMIP5 models precipitation extratropical cyclones |
| title | Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 models |
| title_full | Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 models |
| title_fullStr | Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 models |
| title_short | Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 models |
| title_sort | projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting europe in cmip5 models |
| topic | Atmospheric Rivers climate projections Europe CMIP5 models precipitation extratropical cyclones |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070634 |
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