A systems biology approach to define SARS-CoV-2 correlates of protection

Abstract Correlates of protection (CoPs) for SARS-CoV-2 have yet to be sufficiently defined. This study uses the machine learning platform, SIMON, to accurately predict the immunological parameters that reduced clinical pathology or viral load following SARS-CoV-2 challenge in a cohort of 90 non-hum...

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Main Authors: Caolann Brady, Tom Tipton, Oliver Carnell, Stephanie Longet, Karen Gooch, Yper Hall, Javier Salguero, Adriana Tomic, Miles Carroll
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-04-01
Series:npj Vaccines
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41541-025-01103-2
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author Caolann Brady
Tom Tipton
Oliver Carnell
Stephanie Longet
Karen Gooch
Yper Hall
Javier Salguero
Adriana Tomic
Miles Carroll
author_facet Caolann Brady
Tom Tipton
Oliver Carnell
Stephanie Longet
Karen Gooch
Yper Hall
Javier Salguero
Adriana Tomic
Miles Carroll
author_sort Caolann Brady
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Correlates of protection (CoPs) for SARS-CoV-2 have yet to be sufficiently defined. This study uses the machine learning platform, SIMON, to accurately predict the immunological parameters that reduced clinical pathology or viral load following SARS-CoV-2 challenge in a cohort of 90 non-human primates. We found that anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody and neutralising antibody titres were the best predictors of clinical protection and low viral load in the lung. Since antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike showed the greatest association with clinical protection and reduced viral load, we next used SIMON to investigate the immunological features that predict high antibody titres. It was found that a pre-immunisation response to seasonal beta-HCoVs and a high frequency of peripheral intermediate and non-classical monocytes predicted low SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG titres. In contrast, an elevated T cell response as measured by IFNγ ELISpot predicted high IgG titres. Additional predictors of clinical protection and low SARS-CoV-2 burden included a high abundance of peripheral T cells. In contrast, increased numbers of intermediate monocytes predicted clinical pathology and high viral burden in the throat. We also conclude that an immunisation strategy that minimises pathology post-challenge did not necessarily mediate viral control. This would be an important finding to take forward into the development of future vaccines aimed at limiting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. These results contribute to SARS-CoV-2 CoP definition and shed light on the factors influencing the success of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.
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spelling doaj-art-2687f4f6a19445e0babf8fe61a9a1a3d2025-08-20T02:17:46ZengNature Portfolionpj Vaccines2059-01052025-04-0110111510.1038/s41541-025-01103-2A systems biology approach to define SARS-CoV-2 correlates of protectionCaolann Brady0Tom Tipton1Oliver Carnell2Stephanie Longet3Karen Gooch4Yper Hall5Javier Salguero6Adriana Tomic7Miles Carroll8Centre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of OxfordCentre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of OxfordUK Health Security Agency; Porton DownCentre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of OxfordUK Health Security Agency; Porton DownUK Health Security Agency; Porton DownUK Health Security Agency; Porton DownNational Emerging Infectious Diseases LaboratoriesCentre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of OxfordAbstract Correlates of protection (CoPs) for SARS-CoV-2 have yet to be sufficiently defined. This study uses the machine learning platform, SIMON, to accurately predict the immunological parameters that reduced clinical pathology or viral load following SARS-CoV-2 challenge in a cohort of 90 non-human primates. We found that anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody and neutralising antibody titres were the best predictors of clinical protection and low viral load in the lung. Since antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike showed the greatest association with clinical protection and reduced viral load, we next used SIMON to investigate the immunological features that predict high antibody titres. It was found that a pre-immunisation response to seasonal beta-HCoVs and a high frequency of peripheral intermediate and non-classical monocytes predicted low SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG titres. In contrast, an elevated T cell response as measured by IFNγ ELISpot predicted high IgG titres. Additional predictors of clinical protection and low SARS-CoV-2 burden included a high abundance of peripheral T cells. In contrast, increased numbers of intermediate monocytes predicted clinical pathology and high viral burden in the throat. We also conclude that an immunisation strategy that minimises pathology post-challenge did not necessarily mediate viral control. This would be an important finding to take forward into the development of future vaccines aimed at limiting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. These results contribute to SARS-CoV-2 CoP definition and shed light on the factors influencing the success of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41541-025-01103-2
spellingShingle Caolann Brady
Tom Tipton
Oliver Carnell
Stephanie Longet
Karen Gooch
Yper Hall
Javier Salguero
Adriana Tomic
Miles Carroll
A systems biology approach to define SARS-CoV-2 correlates of protection
npj Vaccines
title A systems biology approach to define SARS-CoV-2 correlates of protection
title_full A systems biology approach to define SARS-CoV-2 correlates of protection
title_fullStr A systems biology approach to define SARS-CoV-2 correlates of protection
title_full_unstemmed A systems biology approach to define SARS-CoV-2 correlates of protection
title_short A systems biology approach to define SARS-CoV-2 correlates of protection
title_sort systems biology approach to define sars cov 2 correlates of protection
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41541-025-01103-2
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