Bayesian implementation of Rogers–Castro model migration schedules: An alternative technique for parameter estimation
BACKGROUND: The Rogers–Castro model migration schedule is a key model for migration trends over the life course. It is applied in a wide variety of settings by demographers to examine the relationship between age and migration intensity. This model is nonlinear and can have up to 13 parameters, whic...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Demographic Research |
| Online Access: | https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/49/42 |
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| author | Jessie Yeung Monica Alexander Tim Riffe |
| author_facet | Jessie Yeung Monica Alexander Tim Riffe |
| author_sort | Jessie Yeung |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BACKGROUND: The Rogers–Castro model migration schedule is a key model for migration trends over the life course. It is applied in a wide variety of settings by demographers to examine the relationship between age and migration intensity. This model is nonlinear and can have up to 13 parameters, which can make estimation difficult. Existing techniques for parameter estimation can lead to issues such as nonconvergence, sensitivity to initial values, or optimization algorithms that do not reach the global optimum. OBJECTIVE: We propose a new method of estimating Rogers–Castro model migration schedule parameters that overcomes most common difficulties. METHODS: We apply a Bayesian framework for fitting the Rogers–Castro model. We also provide the R package rcbayes with functions to easily apply our proposed methodology. RESULTS: We illustrate how this model and the R package can be used in a variety of settings by applying the model to data from the American Community Survey. CONTRIBUTION: We provide a novel and easy-to-use approach for estimating Rogers–Castro model parameters. Our approach is formalized in an R package that makes parameter estimation and Bayesian methods more accessible for demographers and other researchers. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-26537e8718be42e3a239e10463091345 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1435-9871 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Demographic Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-26537e8718be42e3a239e104630913452025-08-20T02:06:31ZengMax Planck Institute for Demographic ResearchDemographic Research1435-98712023-12-0149421201122810.4054/DemRes.2023.49.425785Bayesian implementation of Rogers–Castro model migration schedules: An alternative technique for parameter estimationJessie Yeung0Monica Alexander1Tim Riffe2University of TorontoUniversity of TorontoEuskal Herriko Unibertsitatea (University of the Basque Country)BACKGROUND: The Rogers–Castro model migration schedule is a key model for migration trends over the life course. It is applied in a wide variety of settings by demographers to examine the relationship between age and migration intensity. This model is nonlinear and can have up to 13 parameters, which can make estimation difficult. Existing techniques for parameter estimation can lead to issues such as nonconvergence, sensitivity to initial values, or optimization algorithms that do not reach the global optimum. OBJECTIVE: We propose a new method of estimating Rogers–Castro model migration schedule parameters that overcomes most common difficulties. METHODS: We apply a Bayesian framework for fitting the Rogers–Castro model. We also provide the R package rcbayes with functions to easily apply our proposed methodology. RESULTS: We illustrate how this model and the R package can be used in a variety of settings by applying the model to data from the American Community Survey. CONTRIBUTION: We provide a novel and easy-to-use approach for estimating Rogers–Castro model parameters. Our approach is formalized in an R package that makes parameter estimation and Bayesian methods more accessible for demographers and other researchers. https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/49/42 |
| spellingShingle | Jessie Yeung Monica Alexander Tim Riffe Bayesian implementation of Rogers–Castro model migration schedules: An alternative technique for parameter estimation Demographic Research |
| title | Bayesian implementation of Rogers–Castro model migration schedules: An alternative technique for parameter estimation |
| title_full | Bayesian implementation of Rogers–Castro model migration schedules: An alternative technique for parameter estimation |
| title_fullStr | Bayesian implementation of Rogers–Castro model migration schedules: An alternative technique for parameter estimation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bayesian implementation of Rogers–Castro model migration schedules: An alternative technique for parameter estimation |
| title_short | Bayesian implementation of Rogers–Castro model migration schedules: An alternative technique for parameter estimation |
| title_sort | bayesian implementation of rogers castro model migration schedules an alternative technique for parameter estimation |
| url | https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/49/42 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jessieyeung bayesianimplementationofrogerscastromodelmigrationschedulesanalternativetechniqueforparameterestimation AT monicaalexander bayesianimplementationofrogerscastromodelmigrationschedulesanalternativetechniqueforparameterestimation AT timriffe bayesianimplementationofrogerscastromodelmigrationschedulesanalternativetechniqueforparameterestimation |