Global determinants of coastal migration under climate change
Abstract Climate change-induced sea-level rise and associated flood risk will have major impacts on coastal regions worldwide, likely prompting millions of people to migrate elsewhere. Migration behavior is expected to be context-specific, but comparative empirical research on coastal migration unde...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59199-y |
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| author | Sem J. Duijndam W. J. Wouter Botzen Liselotte C. Hagedoorn Marijn Ton Jens de Bruijn Silvina Carretero Jeanne Dachary-Bernard Bénédicte Rulleau Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts |
| author_facet | Sem J. Duijndam W. J. Wouter Botzen Liselotte C. Hagedoorn Marijn Ton Jens de Bruijn Silvina Carretero Jeanne Dachary-Bernard Bénédicte Rulleau Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts |
| author_sort | Sem J. Duijndam |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change-induced sea-level rise and associated flood risk will have major impacts on coastal regions worldwide, likely prompting millions of people to migrate elsewhere. Migration behavior is expected to be context-specific, but comparative empirical research on coastal migration under climate change is lacking. We address this gap by utilizing original survey data from coastal Argentina, France, Mozambique and the United States to research determinants of migration under different flood risk scenarios. Here we show that migration is more likely in higher-than in lower-income contexts, and that flood risk is an important driver of migration. Consistent determinants of migration across contexts include response efficacy, self-efficacy, place attachment and age, with variations between scenarios. Other factors such as climate change perceptions, migration costs, social networks, household income, and rurality are also important but context-specific. Furthermore, important trade-offs exist between migration and in-situ adaptation. These findings support policymakers in forging equitable migration pathways under climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-264bb56d1d9d4922a76ac9b7acbacfb7 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-264bb56d1d9d4922a76ac9b7acbacfb72025-08-20T04:03:03ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-07-011611910.1038/s41467-025-59199-yGlobal determinants of coastal migration under climate changeSem J. Duijndam0W. J. Wouter Botzen1Liselotte C. Hagedoorn2Marijn Ton3Jens de Bruijn4Silvina Carretero5Jeanne Dachary-Bernard6Bénédicte Rulleau7Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts8Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), CEIDE, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, 64 no. 3Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), UR ETTIS, 50 Avenue de VerdunInstitut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), UR ETTIS, 50 Avenue de VerdunInstitute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085Abstract Climate change-induced sea-level rise and associated flood risk will have major impacts on coastal regions worldwide, likely prompting millions of people to migrate elsewhere. Migration behavior is expected to be context-specific, but comparative empirical research on coastal migration under climate change is lacking. We address this gap by utilizing original survey data from coastal Argentina, France, Mozambique and the United States to research determinants of migration under different flood risk scenarios. Here we show that migration is more likely in higher-than in lower-income contexts, and that flood risk is an important driver of migration. Consistent determinants of migration across contexts include response efficacy, self-efficacy, place attachment and age, with variations between scenarios. Other factors such as climate change perceptions, migration costs, social networks, household income, and rurality are also important but context-specific. Furthermore, important trade-offs exist between migration and in-situ adaptation. These findings support policymakers in forging equitable migration pathways under climate change.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59199-y |
| spellingShingle | Sem J. Duijndam W. J. Wouter Botzen Liselotte C. Hagedoorn Marijn Ton Jens de Bruijn Silvina Carretero Jeanne Dachary-Bernard Bénédicte Rulleau Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts Global determinants of coastal migration under climate change Nature Communications |
| title | Global determinants of coastal migration under climate change |
| title_full | Global determinants of coastal migration under climate change |
| title_fullStr | Global determinants of coastal migration under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global determinants of coastal migration under climate change |
| title_short | Global determinants of coastal migration under climate change |
| title_sort | global determinants of coastal migration under climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59199-y |
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