Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy

<p>The article explores the potential use of climate models to reproduce wine grape productivity at a local scale in Italy. To this end, both single and multiple regression approaches are used to link productivity data provided by two Italian wine consortia with bioclimatic indices. Temperatur...

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Main Authors: L. T. Massano, G. Fosser, M. Gaetani, C. Caillaud
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2024-12-01
Series:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Online Access:https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/4293/2024/nhess-24-4293-2024.pdf
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author L. T. Massano
G. Fosser
M. Gaetani
C. Caillaud
author_facet L. T. Massano
G. Fosser
M. Gaetani
C. Caillaud
author_sort L. T. Massano
collection DOAJ
description <p>The article explores the potential use of climate models to reproduce wine grape productivity at a local scale in Italy. To this end, both single and multiple regression approaches are used to link productivity data provided by two Italian wine consortia with bioclimatic indices. Temperature- and precipitation-based bioclimatic indices are computed using the observational dataset E-OBS, the high-resolution climate reanalysis product SPHERA, the regional climate model CNRM-ALADIN, and the kilometer-scale convection-permitting climate model CNRM-AROME. The multiple regression method outperforms the single regression systematically, enhancing the ability of bioclimatic indices to explain productivity variability. The results show that productivity is strongly tied to temperature-based bioclimatic indices in the area of the Consorzio per la tutela del Franciacorta in northern Italy, while for the Consorzio del Vino Nobile di Montepulciano area in central Italy both temperature- and precipitation-based indices are relevant. Climate models, providing similar results as E-OBS and SPHERA, appear to be a useful tool to explain productivity variance. In particular, the added value of convection-permitting resolution is evident when precipitation-based indices are considered. This assessment shows windows of opportunity for using climate models, especially at a convection-permitting scale, to investigate future climate change impact on wine production.</p>
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publishDate 2024-12-01
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spelling doaj-art-2625337639334c4eaf391007b1c82f2a2025-08-20T02:38:30ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812024-12-01244293431510.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in ItalyL. T. Massano0G. Fosser1M. Gaetani2C. Caillaud3Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS, 2700 Pavia, ItalyScuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS, 2700 Pavia, ItalyScuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS, 2700 Pavia, ItalyCentre National de Recherches Météorologiques CNRM, Groupe de Météorologie de Grande Échelle et Climat, 31057 Toulouse, France<p>The article explores the potential use of climate models to reproduce wine grape productivity at a local scale in Italy. To this end, both single and multiple regression approaches are used to link productivity data provided by two Italian wine consortia with bioclimatic indices. Temperature- and precipitation-based bioclimatic indices are computed using the observational dataset E-OBS, the high-resolution climate reanalysis product SPHERA, the regional climate model CNRM-ALADIN, and the kilometer-scale convection-permitting climate model CNRM-AROME. The multiple regression method outperforms the single regression systematically, enhancing the ability of bioclimatic indices to explain productivity variability. The results show that productivity is strongly tied to temperature-based bioclimatic indices in the area of the Consorzio per la tutela del Franciacorta in northern Italy, while for the Consorzio del Vino Nobile di Montepulciano area in central Italy both temperature- and precipitation-based indices are relevant. Climate models, providing similar results as E-OBS and SPHERA, appear to be a useful tool to explain productivity variance. In particular, the added value of convection-permitting resolution is evident when precipitation-based indices are considered. This assessment shows windows of opportunity for using climate models, especially at a convection-permitting scale, to investigate future climate change impact on wine production.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/4293/2024/nhess-24-4293-2024.pdf
spellingShingle L. T. Massano
G. Fosser
M. Gaetani
C. Caillaud
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
title Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
title_full Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
title_fullStr Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
title_full_unstemmed Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
title_short Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
title_sort using a convection permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity two case studies in italy
url https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/4293/2024/nhess-24-4293-2024.pdf
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