Trends, global comparisons, and projections of early onset colorectal cancer burden in China based on GBD study 2021
Abstract This study aimed to analyze the trends of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) among individuals aged 15 to 49 in China from 1990 to 2021 and compare them with global patterns using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. The analysis focused on age-standardized incidence rates...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-87730-0 |
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| author | Shun Seng Ong Lianjie Xu Xiaoyue Deng Hai Lu Tianshu Xu |
| author_facet | Shun Seng Ong Lianjie Xu Xiaoyue Deng Hai Lu Tianshu Xu |
| author_sort | Shun Seng Ong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study aimed to analyze the trends of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) among individuals aged 15 to 49 in China from 1990 to 2021 and compare them with global patterns using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. The analysis focused on age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), prevalence rates (ASPR), mortality rates (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Joinpoint regression was used to determine the average annual percentage change (AAPC), and the ARIMA model was employed to forecast trends from 2022 to 2050. Results showed a significant increase in ASIR and ASPR in China, with a more rapid rise compared to global trends. ASMR and DALYs showed a decline, indicating improved survival rates. However, the increasing DALYs in China suggest a growing health impact. The ARIMA projections indicate a continued increase in EOCRC burden in China, highlighting the need for enhanced prevention and early detection strategies. This study underscores the necessity for intensified public health interventions to address the rising incidence of EOCRC in China. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-25f5c911b9fd488aaa16dba528943042 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-25f5c911b9fd488aaa16dba5289430422025-01-26T12:23:56ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-01-0115111210.1038/s41598-025-87730-0Trends, global comparisons, and projections of early onset colorectal cancer burden in China based on GBD study 2021Shun Seng Ong0Lianjie Xu1Xiaoyue Deng2Hai Lu3Tianshu Xu4Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, The Drum Tower Clinical Medical College, Nanjing University of Chinese MedicineDepartment of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, The Drum Tower Clinical Medical College, Nanjing University of Chinese MedicineDepartment of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, The Drum Tower Clinical Medical College, Nanjing University of Chinese MedicineDepartment of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, The Drum Tower Clinical Medical College, Nanjing University of Chinese MedicineDepartment of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, The Drum Tower Clinical Medical College, Nanjing University of Chinese MedicineAbstract This study aimed to analyze the trends of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) among individuals aged 15 to 49 in China from 1990 to 2021 and compare them with global patterns using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. The analysis focused on age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), prevalence rates (ASPR), mortality rates (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Joinpoint regression was used to determine the average annual percentage change (AAPC), and the ARIMA model was employed to forecast trends from 2022 to 2050. Results showed a significant increase in ASIR and ASPR in China, with a more rapid rise compared to global trends. ASMR and DALYs showed a decline, indicating improved survival rates. However, the increasing DALYs in China suggest a growing health impact. The ARIMA projections indicate a continued increase in EOCRC burden in China, highlighting the need for enhanced prevention and early detection strategies. This study underscores the necessity for intensified public health interventions to address the rising incidence of EOCRC in China.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-87730-0Global burden of diseaseEOCRCEarly-onset colorectal cancerARIMA modelJoinpoint regression |
| spellingShingle | Shun Seng Ong Lianjie Xu Xiaoyue Deng Hai Lu Tianshu Xu Trends, global comparisons, and projections of early onset colorectal cancer burden in China based on GBD study 2021 Scientific Reports Global burden of disease EOCRC Early-onset colorectal cancer ARIMA model Joinpoint regression |
| title | Trends, global comparisons, and projections of early onset colorectal cancer burden in China based on GBD study 2021 |
| title_full | Trends, global comparisons, and projections of early onset colorectal cancer burden in China based on GBD study 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Trends, global comparisons, and projections of early onset colorectal cancer burden in China based on GBD study 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trends, global comparisons, and projections of early onset colorectal cancer burden in China based on GBD study 2021 |
| title_short | Trends, global comparisons, and projections of early onset colorectal cancer burden in China based on GBD study 2021 |
| title_sort | trends global comparisons and projections of early onset colorectal cancer burden in china based on gbd study 2021 |
| topic | Global burden of disease EOCRC Early-onset colorectal cancer ARIMA model Joinpoint regression |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-87730-0 |
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