Assessing the real implications for CO2 as generation from renewables increases
Abstract Wind and solar electricity generation account for 14% of total electricity generation in the United States and are expected to continue to grow in the next decade. While increased renewable penetration reduces system-wide emissions, the intermittent nature of these resources disrupts conven...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59800-4 |
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| author | Dhruv Suri Jacques de Chalendar Inês M. L. Azevedo |
| author_facet | Dhruv Suri Jacques de Chalendar Inês M. L. Azevedo |
| author_sort | Dhruv Suri |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Wind and solar electricity generation account for 14% of total electricity generation in the United States and are expected to continue to grow in the next decade. While increased renewable penetration reduces system-wide emissions, the intermittent nature of these resources disrupts conventional thermal plant operations. Generation displacement exhibits a nonlinear relationship, as thermal units forced to operate at suboptimal levels experience efficiency penalties. Here we show that as renewable generation rises, thermal plants often operate sub-optimally, increasing emissions when forced to respond to variability. Using hourly emissions and generation data from California and Texas, we find that solar and wind energy significantly reduce expected emissions under normal operating conditions - by 92.6% in California and 91.1% in Texas. However, if renewables force plants to operate inefficiently, emissions from natural gas and coal plants could increase by 12% to 26%. These results highlight the complex interactions between renewable energy growth and thermal plant emissions, indicating that careful management of renewables integration is crucial to minimizing overall system-level CO2 emissions, especially in electricity grids with inflexible thermal capacity. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-25e664ca354442d3aac7aa965f1ae6bb |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-25e664ca354442d3aac7aa965f1ae6bb2025-08-20T03:46:15ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-08-0116111010.1038/s41467-025-59800-4Assessing the real implications for CO2 as generation from renewables increasesDhruv Suri0Jacques de Chalendar1Inês M. L. Azevedo2Department of Energy Science & Engineering, Stanford UniversityDepartment of Energy Science & Engineering, Stanford UniversityDepartment of Energy Science & Engineering, Stanford UniversityAbstract Wind and solar electricity generation account for 14% of total electricity generation in the United States and are expected to continue to grow in the next decade. While increased renewable penetration reduces system-wide emissions, the intermittent nature of these resources disrupts conventional thermal plant operations. Generation displacement exhibits a nonlinear relationship, as thermal units forced to operate at suboptimal levels experience efficiency penalties. Here we show that as renewable generation rises, thermal plants often operate sub-optimally, increasing emissions when forced to respond to variability. Using hourly emissions and generation data from California and Texas, we find that solar and wind energy significantly reduce expected emissions under normal operating conditions - by 92.6% in California and 91.1% in Texas. However, if renewables force plants to operate inefficiently, emissions from natural gas and coal plants could increase by 12% to 26%. These results highlight the complex interactions between renewable energy growth and thermal plant emissions, indicating that careful management of renewables integration is crucial to minimizing overall system-level CO2 emissions, especially in electricity grids with inflexible thermal capacity.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59800-4 |
| spellingShingle | Dhruv Suri Jacques de Chalendar Inês M. L. Azevedo Assessing the real implications for CO2 as generation from renewables increases Nature Communications |
| title | Assessing the real implications for CO2 as generation from renewables increases |
| title_full | Assessing the real implications for CO2 as generation from renewables increases |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the real implications for CO2 as generation from renewables increases |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the real implications for CO2 as generation from renewables increases |
| title_short | Assessing the real implications for CO2 as generation from renewables increases |
| title_sort | assessing the real implications for co2 as generation from renewables increases |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59800-4 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dhruvsuri assessingtherealimplicationsforco2asgenerationfromrenewablesincreases AT jacquesdechalendar assessingtherealimplicationsforco2asgenerationfromrenewablesincreases AT inesmlazevedo assessingtherealimplicationsforco2asgenerationfromrenewablesincreases |