Seasonality of Pacific Decadal Oscillation Prediction Skill
Abstract We investigate coupled climate model initialized predictions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) prediction skill in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Seasonal to Multi Year Large Ensemble (SMYLE). The PDO is predictable up to a year in advance in SMYLE; however, the predictabili...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116122 |
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| author | E. D. Meeker E. A. Maroon A. L. Deppenmeier L. A. Thompson D. J. Vimont S. G. Yeager |
| author_facet | E. D. Meeker E. A. Maroon A. L. Deppenmeier L. A. Thompson D. J. Vimont S. G. Yeager |
| author_sort | E. D. Meeker |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract We investigate coupled climate model initialized predictions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) prediction skill in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Seasonal to Multi Year Large Ensemble (SMYLE). The PDO is predictable up to a year in advance in SMYLE; however, the predictability depends on verification month, with skill degrading most rapidly in boreal spring for all initializations. To examine the role of teleconnections from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the prediction skill of the PDO, we use a multi‐linear regression model. The linear model shows that initial value persistence explains most of the PDO prediction skill in SMYLE. In addition, the PDO prediction skill's seasonal dependence is fully reproduced only when ENSO is included as a predictor. These results suggest that ENSO has a strong influence on the seasonality of PDO predictions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-25b7b790dd704e0bbb48e74103b8d011 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-25b7b790dd704e0bbb48e74103b8d0112025-08-20T02:46:20ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-07-015214n/an/a10.1029/2025GL116122Seasonality of Pacific Decadal Oscillation Prediction SkillE. D. Meeker0E. A. Maroon1A. L. Deppenmeier2L. A. Thompson3D. J. Vimont4S. G. Yeager5Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin–Madison Madison WI USADepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin–Madison Madison WI USADepartment of Earth Ocean and Ecological Sciences University of Liverpool Liverpool UKSchool of Oceanography University of Washington–Seattle Seattle WA USADepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin–Madison Madison WI USANational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USAAbstract We investigate coupled climate model initialized predictions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) prediction skill in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Seasonal to Multi Year Large Ensemble (SMYLE). The PDO is predictable up to a year in advance in SMYLE; however, the predictability depends on verification month, with skill degrading most rapidly in boreal spring for all initializations. To examine the role of teleconnections from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the prediction skill of the PDO, we use a multi‐linear regression model. The linear model shows that initial value persistence explains most of the PDO prediction skill in SMYLE. In addition, the PDO prediction skill's seasonal dependence is fully reproduced only when ENSO is included as a predictor. These results suggest that ENSO has a strong influence on the seasonality of PDO predictions.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116122pacific decadal oscillationseasonal predictabilityclimate predictabilityinitialized climate modeltropical‐extratropical interactions |
| spellingShingle | E. D. Meeker E. A. Maroon A. L. Deppenmeier L. A. Thompson D. J. Vimont S. G. Yeager Seasonality of Pacific Decadal Oscillation Prediction Skill Geophysical Research Letters pacific decadal oscillation seasonal predictability climate predictability initialized climate model tropical‐extratropical interactions |
| title | Seasonality of Pacific Decadal Oscillation Prediction Skill |
| title_full | Seasonality of Pacific Decadal Oscillation Prediction Skill |
| title_fullStr | Seasonality of Pacific Decadal Oscillation Prediction Skill |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seasonality of Pacific Decadal Oscillation Prediction Skill |
| title_short | Seasonality of Pacific Decadal Oscillation Prediction Skill |
| title_sort | seasonality of pacific decadal oscillation prediction skill |
| topic | pacific decadal oscillation seasonal predictability climate predictability initialized climate model tropical‐extratropical interactions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116122 |
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