How have changes in death by cause and age group contributed to the recent stalling of life expectancy gains in Scotland? Comparative decomposition analysis of mortality data, 2000–2002 to 2015–2017
Objective Annual gains in life expectancy in Scotland were slower in recent years than in the previous two decades. This analysis investigates how deaths in different age groups and from different causes have contributed to annual average change in life expectancy across two time periods: 2000–2002...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
BMJ Publishing Group
2020-10-01
|
| Series: | BMJ Open |
| Online Access: | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/10/e036529.full |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1846166180256022528 |
|---|---|
| author | Colin Fischbacher Gerry McCartney Lynda Fenton Jon Minton Julie Ramsay Maria Kaye-Bardgett Grant M A Wyper Elizabeth Richardson |
| author_facet | Colin Fischbacher Gerry McCartney Lynda Fenton Jon Minton Julie Ramsay Maria Kaye-Bardgett Grant M A Wyper Elizabeth Richardson |
| author_sort | Colin Fischbacher |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective Annual gains in life expectancy in Scotland were slower in recent years than in the previous two decades. This analysis investigates how deaths in different age groups and from different causes have contributed to annual average change in life expectancy across two time periods: 2000–2002 to 2012–2014 and 2012–2014 to 2015–2017.Setting Scotland.Methods Life expectancy at birth was calculated from death and population counts, disaggregated by 5 year age group and by underlying cause of death. Arriaga’s method of life expectancy decomposition was applied to produce estimates of the contribution of different age groups and underlying causes to changes in life expectancy at birth for the two periods.Results Annualised gains in life expectancy between 2012–2014 and 2015–2017 were markedly smaller than in the earlier period. Almost all age groups saw worsening mortality trends, which deteriorated for most cause of death groups between 2012–2014 and 2015–2017. In particular, the previously observed substantial life expectancy gains due to reductions in mortality from circulatory causes, which most benefited those aged 55–84 years, more than halved. Mortality rates for those aged 30–54 years and 90+ years worsened, due in large part to increases in drug-related deaths, and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease, respectively.Conclusion Future research should seek to explain the changes in mortality trends for all age groups and causes. More investigation is required to establish to what extent shortcomings in the social security system and public services may be contributing to the adverse trends and preventing mitigation of the impact of other contributing factors, such as influenza outbreaks. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-24b6e0b2c0ac49098f21dce0586acd19 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2044-6055 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMJ Open |
| spelling | doaj-art-24b6e0b2c0ac49098f21dce0586acd192024-11-16T04:40:08ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552020-10-01101010.1136/bmjopen-2019-036529How have changes in death by cause and age group contributed to the recent stalling of life expectancy gains in Scotland? Comparative decomposition analysis of mortality data, 2000–2002 to 2015–2017Colin Fischbacher0Gerry McCartney1Lynda Fenton2Jon Minton3Julie Ramsay4Maria Kaye-Bardgett5Grant M A Wyper6Elizabeth Richardson7Directorate of Board of Clinical and Protecting Health, Public Health Scotland, Edinburgh, UKSchool of Social and Political Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UKconsultant in public health medicinePlace and Wellbeing Directorate, Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, UKVital Events Statistics, National Records of Scotland, Edinburgh, UKVital Events Statistics, National Records of Scotland, Edinburgh, UKPublic Health Scotland, Glasgow, UKPlace and Wellbeing Directorate, Public Health Scotland, Edinburgh, UKObjective Annual gains in life expectancy in Scotland were slower in recent years than in the previous two decades. This analysis investigates how deaths in different age groups and from different causes have contributed to annual average change in life expectancy across two time periods: 2000–2002 to 2012–2014 and 2012–2014 to 2015–2017.Setting Scotland.Methods Life expectancy at birth was calculated from death and population counts, disaggregated by 5 year age group and by underlying cause of death. Arriaga’s method of life expectancy decomposition was applied to produce estimates of the contribution of different age groups and underlying causes to changes in life expectancy at birth for the two periods.Results Annualised gains in life expectancy between 2012–2014 and 2015–2017 were markedly smaller than in the earlier period. Almost all age groups saw worsening mortality trends, which deteriorated for most cause of death groups between 2012–2014 and 2015–2017. In particular, the previously observed substantial life expectancy gains due to reductions in mortality from circulatory causes, which most benefited those aged 55–84 years, more than halved. Mortality rates for those aged 30–54 years and 90+ years worsened, due in large part to increases in drug-related deaths, and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease, respectively.Conclusion Future research should seek to explain the changes in mortality trends for all age groups and causes. More investigation is required to establish to what extent shortcomings in the social security system and public services may be contributing to the adverse trends and preventing mitigation of the impact of other contributing factors, such as influenza outbreaks.https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/10/e036529.full |
| spellingShingle | Colin Fischbacher Gerry McCartney Lynda Fenton Jon Minton Julie Ramsay Maria Kaye-Bardgett Grant M A Wyper Elizabeth Richardson How have changes in death by cause and age group contributed to the recent stalling of life expectancy gains in Scotland? Comparative decomposition analysis of mortality data, 2000–2002 to 2015–2017 BMJ Open |
| title | How have changes in death by cause and age group contributed to the recent stalling of life expectancy gains in Scotland? Comparative decomposition analysis of mortality data, 2000–2002 to 2015–2017 |
| title_full | How have changes in death by cause and age group contributed to the recent stalling of life expectancy gains in Scotland? Comparative decomposition analysis of mortality data, 2000–2002 to 2015–2017 |
| title_fullStr | How have changes in death by cause and age group contributed to the recent stalling of life expectancy gains in Scotland? Comparative decomposition analysis of mortality data, 2000–2002 to 2015–2017 |
| title_full_unstemmed | How have changes in death by cause and age group contributed to the recent stalling of life expectancy gains in Scotland? Comparative decomposition analysis of mortality data, 2000–2002 to 2015–2017 |
| title_short | How have changes in death by cause and age group contributed to the recent stalling of life expectancy gains in Scotland? Comparative decomposition analysis of mortality data, 2000–2002 to 2015–2017 |
| title_sort | how have changes in death by cause and age group contributed to the recent stalling of life expectancy gains in scotland comparative decomposition analysis of mortality data 2000 2002 to 2015 2017 |
| url | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/10/e036529.full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT colinfischbacher howhavechangesindeathbycauseandagegroupcontributedtotherecentstallingoflifeexpectancygainsinscotlandcomparativedecompositionanalysisofmortalitydata20002002to20152017 AT gerrymccartney howhavechangesindeathbycauseandagegroupcontributedtotherecentstallingoflifeexpectancygainsinscotlandcomparativedecompositionanalysisofmortalitydata20002002to20152017 AT lyndafenton howhavechangesindeathbycauseandagegroupcontributedtotherecentstallingoflifeexpectancygainsinscotlandcomparativedecompositionanalysisofmortalitydata20002002to20152017 AT jonminton howhavechangesindeathbycauseandagegroupcontributedtotherecentstallingoflifeexpectancygainsinscotlandcomparativedecompositionanalysisofmortalitydata20002002to20152017 AT julieramsay howhavechangesindeathbycauseandagegroupcontributedtotherecentstallingoflifeexpectancygainsinscotlandcomparativedecompositionanalysisofmortalitydata20002002to20152017 AT mariakayebardgett howhavechangesindeathbycauseandagegroupcontributedtotherecentstallingoflifeexpectancygainsinscotlandcomparativedecompositionanalysisofmortalitydata20002002to20152017 AT grantmawyper howhavechangesindeathbycauseandagegroupcontributedtotherecentstallingoflifeexpectancygainsinscotlandcomparativedecompositionanalysisofmortalitydata20002002to20152017 AT elizabethrichardson howhavechangesindeathbycauseandagegroupcontributedtotherecentstallingoflifeexpectancygainsinscotlandcomparativedecompositionanalysisofmortalitydata20002002to20152017 |