Asymmetric association between meteorological factors and human infections with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: A 16-year ecological trend study in Shaanxi, China
Objective: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) continues to pose a significant threat to global health. This study aimed to investigate both the long- and short-term asymmetric impacts of variations in meteorological variables on HFRS. Methods: The reported monthly HFRS incidence data from...
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Elsevier
2024-12-01
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| Series: | One Health |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771424002210 |
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| author | Chenlu Xue Bingjie Zhang Yanyan Li Xinxiao Li Chunjie Xu Yongbin Wang |
| author_facet | Chenlu Xue Bingjie Zhang Yanyan Li Xinxiao Li Chunjie Xu Yongbin Wang |
| author_sort | Chenlu Xue |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) continues to pose a significant threat to global health. This study aimed to investigate both the long- and short-term asymmetric impacts of variations in meteorological variables on HFRS. Methods: The reported monthly HFRS incidence data from Shaanxi between 2004 and 2019, along with corresponding meteorological data, were collected to conduct an ecological trend analysis. Subsequently, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) models were used to examine the long- and short-term asymmetric effects of climate variables on HFRS incidence. Results: Overall, a reduction in HFRS incidence was observed in Shaanxi from 2004 to 2019, with an average annual percentage change of −0.498 % (95 %CI -13.247 % to 12.602 %). HFRS incidence peaked in December and reached its lowest point in March each year. A 1 mm increase in aggregate precipitation (AP) was associated with a 4.3 % rise in HFRS incidence, while a 1 mm decrease contributed to a 3.7 % increase, indicating a long-term asymmetric impact (Wald long-term asymmetry test [WLT] = 9.072, P = 0.003). In the short term, a 1 % decrease in mean relative humidity (MRH) led to a 5.7 % decline in HFRS incidence (Wald short-term asymmetry test [WSR] = 5.978, P = 0.015). Additionally, changes in meteorological variables showed varied effects: ΔMWV(+) at a 1-month lag had a significant positive short-term effect on HFRS; ΔMRH(+) at a 3-month lag, ΔAP(+) at a 2-month lag, ΔAP(−) at a 1-month lag, ΔASH(+) at a 1-month lag, and ΔASH(−) at a 3-month lag all exhibited strong negative short-term impacts on HFRS incidence. Conclusions: Weather variability plays a significant role in influencing HFRS incidence, with both long- and short-term asymmetric and/or symmetric effects. Utilizing the NARDL model through a One Health lens offers promising opportunities for enhancing HFRS control measures. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-244233879a474edeb09dd8d39243cb2c |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2352-7714 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| series | One Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-244233879a474edeb09dd8d39243cb2c2025-08-20T01:57:51ZengElsevierOne Health2352-77142024-12-011910089510.1016/j.onehlt.2024.100895Asymmetric association between meteorological factors and human infections with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: A 16-year ecological trend study in Shaanxi, ChinaChenlu Xue0Bingjie Zhang1Yanyan Li2Xinxiao Li3Chunjie Xu4Yongbin Wang5Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University, No. 601 Jinsui Road, Hongqi District, Xinxiang, Henan Province 453003, People's Republic of ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University, No. 601 Jinsui Road, Hongqi District, Xinxiang, Henan Province 453003, People's Republic of ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University, No. 601 Jinsui Road, Hongqi District, Xinxiang, Henan Province 453003, People's Republic of ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University, No. 601 Jinsui Road, Hongqi District, Xinxiang, Henan Province 453003, People's Republic of ChinaBeijing Key Laboratory of Antimicrobial Agents/Laboratory of Pharmacology, Institute of Medicinal Biotechnology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100050, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University, No. 601 Jinsui Road, Hongqi District, Xinxiang, Henan Province 453003, People's Republic of China; Corresponding author.Objective: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) continues to pose a significant threat to global health. This study aimed to investigate both the long- and short-term asymmetric impacts of variations in meteorological variables on HFRS. Methods: The reported monthly HFRS incidence data from Shaanxi between 2004 and 2019, along with corresponding meteorological data, were collected to conduct an ecological trend analysis. Subsequently, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) models were used to examine the long- and short-term asymmetric effects of climate variables on HFRS incidence. Results: Overall, a reduction in HFRS incidence was observed in Shaanxi from 2004 to 2019, with an average annual percentage change of −0.498 % (95 %CI -13.247 % to 12.602 %). HFRS incidence peaked in December and reached its lowest point in March each year. A 1 mm increase in aggregate precipitation (AP) was associated with a 4.3 % rise in HFRS incidence, while a 1 mm decrease contributed to a 3.7 % increase, indicating a long-term asymmetric impact (Wald long-term asymmetry test [WLT] = 9.072, P = 0.003). In the short term, a 1 % decrease in mean relative humidity (MRH) led to a 5.7 % decline in HFRS incidence (Wald short-term asymmetry test [WSR] = 5.978, P = 0.015). Additionally, changes in meteorological variables showed varied effects: ΔMWV(+) at a 1-month lag had a significant positive short-term effect on HFRS; ΔMRH(+) at a 3-month lag, ΔAP(+) at a 2-month lag, ΔAP(−) at a 1-month lag, ΔASH(+) at a 1-month lag, and ΔASH(−) at a 3-month lag all exhibited strong negative short-term impacts on HFRS incidence. Conclusions: Weather variability plays a significant role in influencing HFRS incidence, with both long- and short-term asymmetric and/or symmetric effects. Utilizing the NARDL model through a One Health lens offers promising opportunities for enhancing HFRS control measures.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771424002210Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndromeMeteorological factorsAsymmetric relationshipsNonlinear autoregressive distributed lagEcological trend study |
| spellingShingle | Chenlu Xue Bingjie Zhang Yanyan Li Xinxiao Li Chunjie Xu Yongbin Wang Asymmetric association between meteorological factors and human infections with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: A 16-year ecological trend study in Shaanxi, China One Health Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome Meteorological factors Asymmetric relationships Nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag Ecological trend study |
| title | Asymmetric association between meteorological factors and human infections with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: A 16-year ecological trend study in Shaanxi, China |
| title_full | Asymmetric association between meteorological factors and human infections with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: A 16-year ecological trend study in Shaanxi, China |
| title_fullStr | Asymmetric association between meteorological factors and human infections with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: A 16-year ecological trend study in Shaanxi, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Asymmetric association between meteorological factors and human infections with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: A 16-year ecological trend study in Shaanxi, China |
| title_short | Asymmetric association between meteorological factors and human infections with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: A 16-year ecological trend study in Shaanxi, China |
| title_sort | asymmetric association between meteorological factors and human infections with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome a 16 year ecological trend study in shaanxi china |
| topic | Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome Meteorological factors Asymmetric relationships Nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag Ecological trend study |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771424002210 |
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