Forest carbon stock ecological risk assessment in Minjiang River basin based on the adaptive cycle model

As the main carbon reservoir of terrestrial ecosystems, small changes in forest ecosystems can lead to the destabilization of carbon stock, affecting the global carbon cycle and the climate, thus triggering ecological risks. Scientific assessment of forest carbon stock ecological risk and optimizati...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Yuejiao Ji, Mingxin Li, Qiuyue Zhao, Jianwei Geng, Jian Liu, Kunyong Yu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-07-01
Series:Ecological Indicators
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25005989
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849422348336234496
author Yuejiao Ji
Mingxin Li
Qiuyue Zhao
Jianwei Geng
Jian Liu
Kunyong Yu
author_facet Yuejiao Ji
Mingxin Li
Qiuyue Zhao
Jianwei Geng
Jian Liu
Kunyong Yu
author_sort Yuejiao Ji
collection DOAJ
description As the main carbon reservoir of terrestrial ecosystems, small changes in forest ecosystems can lead to the destabilization of carbon stock, affecting the global carbon cycle and the climate, thus triggering ecological risks. Scientific assessment of forest carbon stock ecological risk and optimization of the security pattern of forest ecosystem carbon stock is an urgent need for scientific ecological environmental protection. In order to accurately assess forest carbon stock ecological risk, this study analyzes multiple sources of risk, synthesizes landscape patterns and ecological processes, and constructs a three-dimensional framework of the ecological adaptive cycle of “potential − connectedness − resilience” to assess forest carbon stock ecological risk. The ecological risk of forest carbon stocks in 2000, 2010 and 2020 was partitioned into two regions in collaboration with carbon stocks and ecological risk, which facilitated targeted regulation. The research results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the forest carbon stock in the Minjiang River Basin showed a trend of initial increase followed by a decrease, with a reduction of 18.25 × 106 t over the 20-year period, The spatial evolution of high-risk areas for forest carbon stock ecological risk mainly extended from the central region to the southwest, with risk transfer primarily occurring between adjacent ecological risk levels. Forest carbon stock ecological risk is negatively correlated with carbon stock overall, with the spatial distribution characterized by a pattern of high carbon stock-low ecological risk and low carbon stock-high ecological risk clustering. The ecological risk assessment of forest carbon stocks is of great significance in enhancing regional carbon sink capacity, promoting rational land utilization and green low-carbon development.
format Article
id doaj-art-23fd22a7cb5748848ebf850591a9fb10
institution Kabale University
issn 1470-160X
language English
publishDate 2025-07-01
publisher Elsevier
record_format Article
series Ecological Indicators
spelling doaj-art-23fd22a7cb5748848ebf850591a9fb102025-08-20T03:31:10ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-07-0117611366810.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113668Forest carbon stock ecological risk assessment in Minjiang River basin based on the adaptive cycle modelYuejiao Ji0Mingxin Li1Qiuyue Zhao2Jianwei Geng3Jian Liu4Kunyong Yu5College of JunCao Science and Ecology, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China; University Key Lab for Geomatics Technology and Optimize Resources Utilization in Fujian Province, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, ChinaUniversity Key Lab for Geomatics Technology and Optimize Resources Utilization in Fujian Province, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China; College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, ChinaUniversity Key Lab for Geomatics Technology and Optimize Resources Utilization in Fujian Province, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China; College of Landscape Architecture and Art, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, ChinaUniversity Key Lab for Geomatics Technology and Optimize Resources Utilization in Fujian Province, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China; College of Landscape Architecture and Art, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, ChinaUniversity Key Lab for Geomatics Technology and Optimize Resources Utilization in Fujian Province, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China; College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, ChinaUniversity Key Lab for Geomatics Technology and Optimize Resources Utilization in Fujian Province, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China; College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China; Corresponding author at: University Key Lab for Geomatics Technology and Optimize Resources Utilization in Fujian Province, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China.As the main carbon reservoir of terrestrial ecosystems, small changes in forest ecosystems can lead to the destabilization of carbon stock, affecting the global carbon cycle and the climate, thus triggering ecological risks. Scientific assessment of forest carbon stock ecological risk and optimization of the security pattern of forest ecosystem carbon stock is an urgent need for scientific ecological environmental protection. In order to accurately assess forest carbon stock ecological risk, this study analyzes multiple sources of risk, synthesizes landscape patterns and ecological processes, and constructs a three-dimensional framework of the ecological adaptive cycle of “potential − connectedness − resilience” to assess forest carbon stock ecological risk. The ecological risk of forest carbon stocks in 2000, 2010 and 2020 was partitioned into two regions in collaboration with carbon stocks and ecological risk, which facilitated targeted regulation. The research results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the forest carbon stock in the Minjiang River Basin showed a trend of initial increase followed by a decrease, with a reduction of 18.25 × 106 t over the 20-year period, The spatial evolution of high-risk areas for forest carbon stock ecological risk mainly extended from the central region to the southwest, with risk transfer primarily occurring between adjacent ecological risk levels. Forest carbon stock ecological risk is negatively correlated with carbon stock overall, with the spatial distribution characterized by a pattern of high carbon stock-low ecological risk and low carbon stock-high ecological risk clustering. The ecological risk assessment of forest carbon stocks is of great significance in enhancing regional carbon sink capacity, promoting rational land utilization and green low-carbon development.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25005989Forest ecosystemsCarbon stockAdaptive cycleForest carbon stock ecological riskMinjiang River Basin
spellingShingle Yuejiao Ji
Mingxin Li
Qiuyue Zhao
Jianwei Geng
Jian Liu
Kunyong Yu
Forest carbon stock ecological risk assessment in Minjiang River basin based on the adaptive cycle model
Ecological Indicators
Forest ecosystems
Carbon stock
Adaptive cycle
Forest carbon stock ecological risk
Minjiang River Basin
title Forest carbon stock ecological risk assessment in Minjiang River basin based on the adaptive cycle model
title_full Forest carbon stock ecological risk assessment in Minjiang River basin based on the adaptive cycle model
title_fullStr Forest carbon stock ecological risk assessment in Minjiang River basin based on the adaptive cycle model
title_full_unstemmed Forest carbon stock ecological risk assessment in Minjiang River basin based on the adaptive cycle model
title_short Forest carbon stock ecological risk assessment in Minjiang River basin based on the adaptive cycle model
title_sort forest carbon stock ecological risk assessment in minjiang river basin based on the adaptive cycle model
topic Forest ecosystems
Carbon stock
Adaptive cycle
Forest carbon stock ecological risk
Minjiang River Basin
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25005989
work_keys_str_mv AT yuejiaoji forestcarbonstockecologicalriskassessmentinminjiangriverbasinbasedontheadaptivecyclemodel
AT mingxinli forestcarbonstockecologicalriskassessmentinminjiangriverbasinbasedontheadaptivecyclemodel
AT qiuyuezhao forestcarbonstockecologicalriskassessmentinminjiangriverbasinbasedontheadaptivecyclemodel
AT jianweigeng forestcarbonstockecologicalriskassessmentinminjiangriverbasinbasedontheadaptivecyclemodel
AT jianliu forestcarbonstockecologicalriskassessmentinminjiangriverbasinbasedontheadaptivecyclemodel
AT kunyongyu forestcarbonstockecologicalriskassessmentinminjiangriverbasinbasedontheadaptivecyclemodel