Forecasting tourist in-flow in South East Asia: A case of Singapore
This study attempts to forecast tourist inflow in South East Asia and choses Singapore as a case. For Singapore, tourism is one of the major sources of foreign exchange earnings since it has no natural resources to support its economy. Therefore, forecasting of tourist arrivals in the country be...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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University of Algarve, ESGHT/CINTURS
2016-01-01
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| Series: | Tourism & Management Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/718/pdf_10 |
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| author | Manoj Kumar Seema Sharma |
| author_facet | Manoj Kumar Seema Sharma |
| author_sort | Manoj Kumar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study attempts to forecast tourist inflow in South East Asia and
choses Singapore as a case. For Singapore, tourism is one of the major
sources of foreign exchange earnings since it has no natural resources
to support its economy. Therefore, forecasting of tourist arrivals in the
country becomes very important for the reason that the forecasting
may help tourism related service industries (e.g. airlines, hotels,
shopping malls, transporters and catering services, etc.) to plan and
prepare their resources and activities in an optimal way. In this paper,
seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA)
methodology was considered for making monthly predictions on
tourist arrival in Singapore. The best model for forecasting is found out
to be (1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 and monthly forecasting were obtained for two
years in future. Further, various statistical tests (e.g. Dickey Fuller,
KPSS, HEGY, Ljung-Box, Box-Pierce etc.) were applied on the time
series for adequacy of best model to fit, residual autocorrelation
analysis and for the accuracy of the prediction. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-23aa1559acf540258482fd415378c1fa |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2182-8466 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | University of Algarve, ESGHT/CINTURS |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tourism & Management Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-23aa1559acf540258482fd415378c1fa2025-02-02T18:03:42ZengUniversity of Algarve, ESGHT/CINTURSTourism & Management Studies2182-84662016-01-0112110711910.18089/tms.2016.12111Forecasting tourist in-flow in South East Asia: A case of SingaporeManoj Kumar0Seema Sharma1Department of Management Studies, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi, IndiaDepartment of Management Studies, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi, IndiaThis study attempts to forecast tourist inflow in South East Asia and choses Singapore as a case. For Singapore, tourism is one of the major sources of foreign exchange earnings since it has no natural resources to support its economy. Therefore, forecasting of tourist arrivals in the country becomes very important for the reason that the forecasting may help tourism related service industries (e.g. airlines, hotels, shopping malls, transporters and catering services, etc.) to plan and prepare their resources and activities in an optimal way. In this paper, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) methodology was considered for making monthly predictions on tourist arrival in Singapore. The best model for forecasting is found out to be (1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 and monthly forecasting were obtained for two years in future. Further, various statistical tests (e.g. Dickey Fuller, KPSS, HEGY, Ljung-Box, Box-Pierce etc.) were applied on the time series for adequacy of best model to fit, residual autocorrelation analysis and for the accuracy of the prediction.https://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/718/pdf_10forecastingseasonal arimatourist arrivalssingapore |
| spellingShingle | Manoj Kumar Seema Sharma Forecasting tourist in-flow in South East Asia: A case of Singapore Tourism & Management Studies forecasting seasonal arima tourist arrivals singapore |
| title | Forecasting tourist in-flow in South East Asia: A case of Singapore |
| title_full | Forecasting tourist in-flow in South East Asia: A case of Singapore |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting tourist in-flow in South East Asia: A case of Singapore |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting tourist in-flow in South East Asia: A case of Singapore |
| title_short | Forecasting tourist in-flow in South East Asia: A case of Singapore |
| title_sort | forecasting tourist in flow in south east asia a case of singapore |
| topic | forecasting seasonal arima tourist arrivals singapore |
| url | https://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/718/pdf_10 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT manojkumar forecastingtouristinflowinsoutheastasiaacaseofsingapore AT seemasharma forecastingtouristinflowinsoutheastasiaacaseofsingapore |