Projected Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Form Using the SLEUTH Model with Urban Master Plan Scenarios
Urban growth, a pivotal characteristic of economic development, brings many environmental and ecological challenges. Modeling urban growth is essential for understanding its spatial dynamics and projecting future trends, providing insights for effective urban planning and sustainable development. Th...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Remote Sensing |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/2/270 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832587551924289536 |
|---|---|
| author | Yuhan Liu Caiyan Wu Jiong Wu Yangcen Zhang Xing Bi Meng Wang Enrong Yan Conghe Song Junxiang Li |
| author_facet | Yuhan Liu Caiyan Wu Jiong Wu Yangcen Zhang Xing Bi Meng Wang Enrong Yan Conghe Song Junxiang Li |
| author_sort | Yuhan Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Urban growth, a pivotal characteristic of economic development, brings many environmental and ecological challenges. Modeling urban growth is essential for understanding its spatial dynamics and projecting future trends, providing insights for effective urban planning and sustainable development. This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal patterns of urban growth and morphological evolution in mainland Shanghai from 2016 to 2060 using the SLEUTH model under multiple growth scenarios based on the Shanghai Urban Master Plan (2017–2035). A comprehensive set of urban growth metrics and quadrant analysis were employed to quantify the magnitude, rate, intensity, and direction of urban growth, as well as morphological evolution, over time. We found that (1) significant urban growth was observed across most scenarios, with the exception of stringent land protection. The most substantial growth occurred prior to 2045 with an obvious north–south disparity, where southern regions demonstrated more pronounced increases in urban land area and urbanization rates. (2) The spatiotemporal patterns of the rate and intensity of urban growth exhibited similar characteristics. The spatial pattern followed a “concave shape” pattern and displayed anisotropic behavior, with the high values for these indicators primarily observed before 2025. (3) The urban form followed a diffusion–coalescence process, with patch areas dominated by the infilling mode and patch numbers dominated by the edge-expansion mode. This resulted in significant alternating urban growth models in the infilling, edge-expansion, and leapfrog modes over time, influenced by varying protection intensities. These findings provide valuable insights for forward-looking urban planning, land use optimization, and the support of sustainable urban development. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-237d9865152a4502978311f3373837fb |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2072-4292 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Remote Sensing |
| spelling | doaj-art-237d9865152a4502978311f3373837fb2025-01-24T13:47:57ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922025-01-0117227010.3390/rs17020270Projected Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Form Using the SLEUTH Model with Urban Master Plan ScenariosYuhan Liu0Caiyan Wu1Jiong Wu2Yangcen Zhang3Xing Bi4Meng Wang5Enrong Yan6Conghe Song7Junxiang Li8School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, ChinaDepartment of Landscape Architecture, School of Design, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, ChinaDepartment of Landscape Architecture, School of Design, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, ChinaDepartment of Landscape Architecture, School of Design, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, ChinaDepartment of Landscape Architecture, School of Design, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, ChinaDepartment of Landscape Architecture, School of Design, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, ChinaSchool of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, ChinaDepartment of Geography and Environment, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USADepartment of Landscape Architecture, School of Design, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, ChinaUrban growth, a pivotal characteristic of economic development, brings many environmental and ecological challenges. Modeling urban growth is essential for understanding its spatial dynamics and projecting future trends, providing insights for effective urban planning and sustainable development. This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal patterns of urban growth and morphological evolution in mainland Shanghai from 2016 to 2060 using the SLEUTH model under multiple growth scenarios based on the Shanghai Urban Master Plan (2017–2035). A comprehensive set of urban growth metrics and quadrant analysis were employed to quantify the magnitude, rate, intensity, and direction of urban growth, as well as morphological evolution, over time. We found that (1) significant urban growth was observed across most scenarios, with the exception of stringent land protection. The most substantial growth occurred prior to 2045 with an obvious north–south disparity, where southern regions demonstrated more pronounced increases in urban land area and urbanization rates. (2) The spatiotemporal patterns of the rate and intensity of urban growth exhibited similar characteristics. The spatial pattern followed a “concave shape” pattern and displayed anisotropic behavior, with the high values for these indicators primarily observed before 2025. (3) The urban form followed a diffusion–coalescence process, with patch areas dominated by the infilling mode and patch numbers dominated by the edge-expansion mode. This resulted in significant alternating urban growth models in the infilling, edge-expansion, and leapfrog modes over time, influenced by varying protection intensities. These findings provide valuable insights for forward-looking urban planning, land use optimization, and the support of sustainable urban development.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/2/270urban formurban growthSLEUTH modelurban planning scenariospatiotemporal evolutiondiffusion–coalescence process |
| spellingShingle | Yuhan Liu Caiyan Wu Jiong Wu Yangcen Zhang Xing Bi Meng Wang Enrong Yan Conghe Song Junxiang Li Projected Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Form Using the SLEUTH Model with Urban Master Plan Scenarios Remote Sensing urban form urban growth SLEUTH model urban planning scenario spatiotemporal evolution diffusion–coalescence process |
| title | Projected Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Form Using the SLEUTH Model with Urban Master Plan Scenarios |
| title_full | Projected Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Form Using the SLEUTH Model with Urban Master Plan Scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Projected Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Form Using the SLEUTH Model with Urban Master Plan Scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projected Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Form Using the SLEUTH Model with Urban Master Plan Scenarios |
| title_short | Projected Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Form Using the SLEUTH Model with Urban Master Plan Scenarios |
| title_sort | projected spatiotemporal evolution of urban form using the sleuth model with urban master plan scenarios |
| topic | urban form urban growth SLEUTH model urban planning scenario spatiotemporal evolution diffusion–coalescence process |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/2/270 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yuhanliu projectedspatiotemporalevolutionofurbanformusingthesleuthmodelwithurbanmasterplanscenarios AT caiyanwu projectedspatiotemporalevolutionofurbanformusingthesleuthmodelwithurbanmasterplanscenarios AT jiongwu projectedspatiotemporalevolutionofurbanformusingthesleuthmodelwithurbanmasterplanscenarios AT yangcenzhang projectedspatiotemporalevolutionofurbanformusingthesleuthmodelwithurbanmasterplanscenarios AT xingbi projectedspatiotemporalevolutionofurbanformusingthesleuthmodelwithurbanmasterplanscenarios AT mengwang projectedspatiotemporalevolutionofurbanformusingthesleuthmodelwithurbanmasterplanscenarios AT enrongyan projectedspatiotemporalevolutionofurbanformusingthesleuthmodelwithurbanmasterplanscenarios AT conghesong projectedspatiotemporalevolutionofurbanformusingthesleuthmodelwithurbanmasterplanscenarios AT junxiangli projectedspatiotemporalevolutionofurbanformusingthesleuthmodelwithurbanmasterplanscenarios |